The Trump administration’s plan to impose port fees on Chinese owned and manufactured ships in October is shaking up the global transport industry, prompting lines to start shuffling their fleets to move vessels built in the mainland off US routes.
It’s been estimated that, by October, no more than 5% of the container ships calling at US ports will be Chinese-built.
As of the end of May, nearly 1 in 5 container ships on three major US routes was made in China. Soon the proportion may decline to just 1 in 20.
“We expect the flight of China-built ships to accelerate as we get closer to October, although there will still be some China-built ships calling at US ports.”
Comparing the end of May to the end of July, the total number of Chinese-built ships on three key US routes — from Asia to the west and east coasts, and the transatlantic trade — was down by ~8%.

The shift comes after the US Trade Representative in April announced a set of complex, phased fees on ships owned or operated by Chinese companies, as well as built-in-China vessels sailed by other carriers.
Starting Oct 14, Chinese owned or operated vessels will be charged $50 per net ton of cargo capacity when beginning a port rotation in the US, up to 5 times a year. This would equate to a few million dollars in fees on a typical ship, even before the rate rises to $140 per net ton in 2028.
For non-Chinese carriers merely using ships built at Chinese yards, the fees will start at $18 per net ton or $120 per container discharged, whichever is higher. These are scheduled to rise to $33 per net ton or $250 per container in 2028.
Chinese carriers like state-backed leader Cosco, which called the fees "discriminatory," may find it uneconomical to directly serve US routes.

One potential workaround that has been floated is teaming up with partners — the shipping industry is broadly grouped into several alliances — to keep Chinese-owned or built ships off American routes. Cosco and its subsidiary OOCL, for example, belong to the Ocean Alliance with European carrier CMA CGM and Taiwan-based Evergreen.
On the top US route, from Asia to the West Coast, Chinese-built vessels accounted for only 19% of CMA CGM's container service as of the end of July. "This low proportion makes it possible to replace China-built containerships by similar ships built in other countries.”
It remains unclear what, if any, arrangements have been made between partners.
All of this injects new complications into an industry that depends on maximum efficiency to smoothly ferry cargo across the globe. Swapping ships is not a perfect solution, as generally, moving cargo on one's own vessel provides cost and other advantages over booking space on a partner's.
The Trump administration's policy could still change between now and October. The terms set by the USTR reflected some of the feedback it had received from concerned industry players.
"Because there have been a number of changes from the original fee proposal over the past few months, there is still a bit of confusion about what fees will actually be applied at the end of the day. We certainly would not be surprised if further modifications and clarifications are made prior to the implementation date."
asia.nikkei.com/business/trans
