The West is dangerously exposed to a co-ordinated threat of sabotage attacks by Russia and China, a classified European Union intelligence report has warned.
The assessment, sent to Brussels in the spring and seen in part by The i Paper, underscores increasing concerns from Western officials that Beijing and Moscow are working in parallel, learning from each other’s tactics to undermine Western democracies and sow chaos.
“What is innovated by China on one end of the globe will be perfected by Russia on the other,” according to a portion of the report. “[EU nations] need to respond jointly and globally to attacks – even (or especially) those countries who are only indirectly affected.”
In a stark warning from EU diplomats to European commissioners, the document warns of “a gap” in Western thinking which China and Russia are seeking to “exploit”.
Experts consulted in the report, and anonymised before sharing with this newspaper, said that Russia is learning from Beijing’s so-called “grey zone” tactics in Taiwan, and perfecting them for use in Europe.
The term “grey zone” is used to describe the situation which exists between peace and open warfare and hostile activities fall just below what might be considered traditional acts of war.
The EU dossier suggests that both Russia and China are continuously probing for vulnerabilities in European nations’ ability to respond to sabotage attacks.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the UK and other European nations has seen an increase in suspected hybrid attacks co-ordinated by Moscow, such as cyber hacks, arson, disinformation and possible sabotage of critical undersea communication cables.
China has continued to deploy grey-zone warfare tactics by repeatedly encircling Taiwan with fighter jets and navy ships, launching cyber attacks, and making provocative statements of its desire to “reunite” with the self-ruled island. It has also launched at least a dozen rockets – or satellite missions – that have passed over Taiwan’s air defence zone in the past two years as fears of an all-out invasion grow.
In November, a Chinese vessel carrying Russian fertiliser was suspected of damaging two cables linking Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany. Since then at least five subsea cables in the Baltic Sea and Taiwan Strait have been severed, with Chinese or Russian linked vessels appearing as the suspected culprits.
The classified EU report argues that Taiwan is only a “sub-theatre” for a much larger war against the West “rather than just one country”.
Dr Sari Arho Havrén, a associate fellow at the Rusi think-tank and China analyst, said the tactics are “perfect tools” to attack the “vulnerabilities of open, democratic and rule of law societies” because Russia and China can work together to weaken Western nations while simultaneously maintain a “plausible deniability”.
She told The i Paper: “China and Russia have deepened their co-operation and co-ordination on all areas, and not least on security and militarily.
“Russia’s experience with disinformation, cyber attacks, and sabotage in Ukraine and Europe complements China’s economic coercion, cyber operations, and grey zone tactics against Taiwan.
“China’s support for Russia’s war economy through dual-use goods and sanctions evasion could be mirrored in a Taiwan scenario, with Russia also providing combat expertise or hybrid distractions like cyber attacks on European infrastructure.”
It comes after comments from Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte, who suggested that any future Chinese military action against Taiwan would be co-ordinated with Russia.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to attack Taiwan, “he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking Nato territory’,” Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times.
A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in London said Beijing was “committed to deepening partnership, maintaining strategic communication, enhancing mutual trust, and elevating China-EU relations to a new level,” adding that any China-Russia relations “do not target any third party”.
They said: “Those who hype up the so-called ‘China threat’ still view China through the lens of Cold War mentality and ideological bias, to which we firmly object. Disrupting China-EU co-operation does not serve Europe’s fundamental interests.”
A UK Government spokesperson said: “National security is the foundation of the Government’s Plan for Change. The Strategic Defence Review, published last month, set out the path for the next decade and beyond to transform Defence, including the move to warfighting readiness to deter, and the whole-of-society approach to increase national resilience.
“Our investment in new military capabilities, driven by the biggest sustained boost in defence spending since the Cold War, rising to 2.6% of GDP by 2027, will ensure Britian is secure at home and strong abroad.”
The EU Commission and the Russian embassy have been approached for comment.
