The failure of Taiwan’s ruling party to unseat opposition members of the legislature in recall elections last weekend may prevent President Lai Ching-te from lifting defence spending.
Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) failed in all 24 recall elections held on the weekend, leaving the Taiwan’s opposition with its blocking majority.
In July the legislature postponed a US$14.2 billion bill intended to strengthen national security and mitigate the economic impacts from US tariffs, raising questions about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defence.
The recall elections were the culmination of a campaign by the DPP to remove 35 members of the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT). Under Taiwan’s electoral law, a petition by at least 10 percent of voters in a district can trigger a recall election. The DPP needed to unseat at least six KMT legislators to gain a majority. In the event, it unseated none.
Seven more recall elections are scheduled for this month, but the campaign has clearly lost momentum.
Instead of clearing the way for the DPP’s policy agenda, which includes raising the defence budget to at least 3 percent of GDP, the campaign failure will embolden the KMT and deepen political polarisation.
Several key elements of Taiwan’s defence build-up are stalled due to political deadlock, in which two independents and another party, the Taiwan People’s Party, work with the KMT to form the blocking majority. This is much to the frustration of US officials urging Taiwan to spend more on protecting itself.
The legislature this year cut T$8 billion (US$270 million) from the proposed defence budget and froze spending of a further T$90 billion (US$3.3 billion). This would have knocked 2025 defence spending down from the intended 2.5 percent of GDP to 2.1 percent, but money is again flowing for most of the 279 frozen projects.
In early July, the legislature postponed consideration of a key T$410 billion (US$14.2 billion) special investment bill intended to boost national security and mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs. The bill included T$150 billion (US$5.0 billion) earmarked for military and coast guard upgrades, including acquisition of drones and systems for cybersecurity and coastal surveillance. The legislature passed the bill only after the DPP made concessions, including agreement to a one-off cash handout of T$230 billion (US$7.7 billion) to citizens.
The repeated conditional freezes, shifting of funds to populist handouts, and legislative delays have impeded Taiwan’s military build-up and frustrated the United States. US Republican Senator Dan Sullivan addressed the Taiwanese people during the confirmation hearing of Defence Under Secretary for Policy Elbridge Colby. Taiwanese, Sullivan said, needed ‘to realise they’re playing a dangerous game. Cutting defence spending right now is not the right signal.’ Senator Angus King, an independent, asked ‘how are we to be expected to think about sending Americans into harm’s way on behalf of an entity that doesn’t seem all that interested in protecting itself?’ With the failure of the recall elections, expect more such criticism.
Council of Foreign Relations fellow for Asia studies David Sacks warned on Monday that Taiwan’s failure to raise defence spending would be interpreted in Washington as ‘not taking its defence seriously’ and would ‘embolden Chinese aggression’.
Chinese military pressure on Taiwan has climbed sharply in recent years. In 2024 alone, Chinese military aircraft made 3,615 incursions into Taiwan’s air-defence identification zone (ADIZ), nearly four times the 972 recorded in 2021. More again are likely this year. In one 24-hour stretch in mid-July, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry logged 58 Chinese warplanes inside the ADIZ.
In April, 76 Chinese combat aircraft and 15 naval vessels conducted live-fire drills off Taiwan.
If Taiwan cannot overcome domestic gridlock and build a credible defence capacity, it risks not only undermining deterrence but also alienating its closest partners. It’s sending the wrong signal—to Beijing and to Washington.
