A burgeoning crisis of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs, propelled by a transnational criminal network, is redefining the regional landscape. With chemical precursors flowing from China and alliances forged with Mexican cartels, this illicit trade is not only transforming drug trafficking but also escalating regional security concerns. Recent analyses reveal a deeply entrenched model combining considerable profit margins, the weakening of institutions, and substantial geopolitical risks.
“We are seeing a transformation in the dynamics of organized crime,” Yadira Gálvez, a security specialist and academic at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, told Diálogo. “Access to precursors, technical knowledge, and resources for clandestine laboratories has facilitated the rise of synthetic drugs such as fentanyl and nitazenes.”
China: epicenter of chemical precursors
Since 2012, China has been identified as the main supplier of chemical precursors and pre-precursors used in the manufacture of fentanyl. According to Colombian think tank Andrés Bello Foundation, which investigates China’s influence in Latin America, at least 188 pharmaceutical companies in provinces such as Hebei and Hubei have been documented as producing these compounds, many of them directly linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
“If the CCP maintains control over the country’s main economic, technological, social, and political sectors, it is worth asking why it is not taking more decisive action against the trafficking of precursors,” Gálvez said. “This concern has been raised by various international actors.”
Although China implemented a ban on fentanyl derivatives in 2019, the precursors essential for their production continue to be exported.
“At the strategic level, there are two interpretations: one points to a deliberate plan to cause harm, as happened in the Opium War. The other points to intentional omission with similar aims,” Gálvez said. “The truth is that Chinese entities are involved in this chemical flow.”
Subsidies, censorship, and digital commerce
China’s involvement in the fentanyl crisis goes beyond merely producing precursor chemicals. An investigation by the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Strategic Competition with the CCP reveals that China actively subsidizes the manufacturing and export of these substances through tax rebates. This occurs even for compounds known to be illegal or without legitimate medical purpose.
Alarmingly, companies implicated in drug trafficking have connections to the Chinese state, even operating out of prison facilities. Meanwhile, international online platforms still host advertisements for these dangerous compounds, with Chinese authorities failing to take significant action. “Whether through direct action or omission, the continuous flow of precursors, their online availability, and their links to money laundering networks can be seen as part of a hybrid threat,” Gálvez said.
Cartels and the transformation of drug trafficking
According to InSight Crime, an organization dedicated to the study of organized crime in Latin America, precursors are sold on the dark web through front companies, fake certificates, and direct contact via encrypted applications. Payments are made with cryptocurrencies and shipments are concealed.
Since 2023, the United States has intensified efforts, sanctioned Chinese individuals and entities for their direct involvement with Mexican cartels in producing and distributing fentanyl. These Chinese suppliers have also been penalized for sending precursors to various countries, Mexico’s Aristegui Noticias reported.
Mexican cartels, primarily the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) have fully exploited China’s lax regulation of chemical precursors. These criminal organizations, designated as terrorist organizations, don’t just import the necessary compounds to synthesize fentanyl; they also experiment on people and animals to improve their products, according to reports from Infobae and The New York Times. They even recruit chemistry students in their clandestine labs, ensuring a steady supply of skilled operators.
Mexico, historically a corridor for drugs moving north, has now become a significant consumer market for fentanyl, particularly in the northern states, a concerning shift for the country. There is also growing awareness that some of this illicit fentanyl is also being trafficked from Mexico south into other Latin American nations, where it is often mixed with other widely consumed drugs to create demand.
Concurrently, countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia are seeing an alarming trend: an increase in the diversion of medical fentanyl to the illicit market, think tank the Brookings Institution, indicated in a report. The Brookings report also highlights a critical challenge: Many of the region’s countries lack adequate monitoring and the forensic capacities to test for the presence of fentanyl and mostly do not do so. Therefore, the prevalence of its use could be significantly undercounted.
“If this criminal network between Chinese companies, Mexican cartels, and money laundering networks expands, violence and territorial control will increase. Added to this are geopolitical risks that could destabilize the region,” Gálvez said.
Strategic infrastructure and regional risks
The expansion of strategic infrastructure across Latin America, spearheaded by Chinese companies, highlights significant risks of criminal infiltration. These large-scale projects, including major new ports like the COSCO-operated Chancay Port in Peru, have become potential targets for criminal groups aiming to control lucrative drug trafficking logistics, Infobae reported.
More than 80 percent of the raw materials used to manufacture synthetic drugs in South America originate from China, reinforcing these concerns. Without effective oversight, these Chinese-operated projects could facilitate new forms of illicit trafficking, the Andrés Bello Foundation warned.
A transnational challenge
Combating fentanyl trafficking requires more sophisticated strategies and increased international cooperation, according to Gálvez. Governments are facing increasingly decentralized and adaptive criminal networks.
“Assuming that fentanyl is a problem exclusive to the United States prevents an adequate response,” Gálvez said. “The region does not have sufficient capacity to detect its circulation, so it is key to strengthen international cooperation and pressure China to assume its responsibility in the flow of precursors.”
The fentanyl threat transcends borders, Gálvez concluded. From factories in China to clandestine laboratories in Mexico, the drug is testing states’ ability to contain a crisis affecting not only security but also public health and geopolitical stability throughout the hemisphere.
