(cache)Fifty Research Group

Research Context and Purpose

The Gaza conflict has become a dominant topic in international news. Middle Eastern conflicts traditionally command significant attention and often overshadow other global events [1].

Casualty information in any conflict is crucial, and this war is no exception. Such data shapes public opinion, influences political decisions, and informs legal proceedings [2], as evidenced by South Africa's case against Israel in the International Court of Justice.

Our research has revealed a concerning pattern: despite regular reporting on Gaza casualties, many leading English-language publications consistently omit the number of combatant casualties and fail to include them in overall casualty counts.

Premises

Hamas does not differentiate between combatant and civilian casualties. Intelligence estimates indicate up to 30,000 Hamas combatants in Gaza [3]. The Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza reports approximately 40,000 total casualties in the conflict [4].

Israel specifically tracks combatant casualties. The IDF reports over 17,000 fighters killed in the conflict [5].

We observed that journalists from leading English-language media predominantly rely on figures from Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization [6], while disregarding Israeli military data. Though both sources provide incomplete casualty information, journalists rarely present or compare figures from both sides.

This systematic omission of combatant casualty information has led to a misleading narrative suggesting that Israel has killed "40,000 civilians" in Gaza. This narrative receives widespread media coverage. For instance, prominent television host Fareed Zakaria stated on CNN in April that "35,000 civilians died" during an interview with Bennett, who notably did not challenge this characterization [7].

The Research

Our study examined eight influential English-language media outlets, including two major news agencies: BBC, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, Associated Press, Reuters, and Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). We analyzed all articles mentioning Gaza casualties from February through May 2024.

We examined the online versions of these articles, focusing on casualty reporting methods and civilian-combatant distinctions. Our dataset comprised 1,378 articles, providing a statistically significant sample. The analysis was conducted both collectively and individually by publication, with sample sizes ranging from 111 articles (ABC) to 245 articles (The Guardian). The maximum confidence interval for our estimated rates is ± 4%.

Our team gathered all quotes related to casualty data from articles referencing total casualty figures. These were categorized using 76 distinct codes, grouped into three categories: "Information about casualties," "Information about sources," and "Other." Each quote underwent independent coding by two researchers, with a third researcher conducting verification.

Bias Prevention Techniques in Research Methodology

We employed exhaustive sampling through comprehensive article selection, including all relevant content from February through May, based on thorough database analysis of publication websites
All quotes underwent double verification by independent researchers after selection
Quotes received independent coding from two researchers, with third-party verification
Our volunteer team comprises individuals who are geographically diverse and unaffiliated with any single organization
We utilized OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) methodologies
We implemented strict exclusion criteria for ambiguous codes. Of 76 initial codes, 39 were retained for analysis, focusing on statistical frequency of source citations and casualty composition. Codes permitting dual interpretation were excluded to maintain study neutrality
This research is entirely volunteer-driven, with no monetary compensation provided to participants

Key Findings

Minimal Media Representation of Israeli Sources:

Only 4% of publications cite Israeli data, indicating a significant underrepresentation of Israeli sources
Hamas-provided data appears in 98% of all sources

Limited Critical Analysis of Hamas Data:

Media outlets frequently present Hamas figures without scrutiny: 19% of publications treat Hamas data as established fact, presenting figures without attribution.

Disparate Source Verification Standards:

Only 1% of sources acknowledge that Hamas figures are unverifiable or contested
Conversely, nearly 50% of publications question Israel's figures, despite Israel's minimal representation as an information source
There appears to be little effort to present casualty figures from both perspectives of the conflict

These findings suggest a significant imbalance in source representation and scrutiny, potentially impacting public understanding of the conflict.

Methodology

ACCESS TO RESEARCH DATA

View Complete Research Data

Database Update and Error Correction

We take the quality of our data very seriously and would like to inform you about recent corrections made to our published database.

During a thorough review, we identified and corrected duplicate entries from several sources, including the Associated Press, Reuters, and The Washington Post.

To maintain the original balance of the dataset, we also expanded the selection of articles from CNN, as it previously represented the smallest sample among the top publications. The added articles were selected using a comprehensive method, taking consecutive entries from a specific time period to ensure consistency and minimize selection bias.

After performing new calculations, we confirm that these adjustments did not impact the overall findings of the study. The differences remain within the margin of statistical error and do not exceed 1%.

We appreciate your attention to our research and remain committed to ensuring its accuracy and transparency.

SELECTION OF MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE STUDY

1. Reputation and Longevity

Selected from among the most established and reputable media outlets
Most outlets were established in the 19th century
CNN, founded in 1980, is the most recently established outlet included
Longevity was considered a key indicator of trustworthiness, as institutional age often correlates with established credibility

2. Trusted Media

Media credibility was evaluated using the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2022's brand trust scores

3. Mass-Market Focus

Selected media outlets with broad, mass-market reach
Emphasized outlets demonstrating consistent and frequent news coverage

4. Global Perspective

Selected organizations with explicit global coverage mandates
Prioritized outlets committed to multiperspective reporting, ensuring comprehensive coverage of global events

These criteria led to the selection of five primary media outlets: CNN, BBC, The New York Times, The Guardian, and The Washington Post.

To enhance the breadth of our analysis, we included two major global news agencies that serve as primary sources of international news: Reuters and The Associated Press.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was subsequently included at the recommendation of our Australian volunteers. While ABC is a significant taxpayer-funded media organization with considerable regional influence, it provided the smallest sample size in our dataset.

ANALYZED SOURCES, FEBRUARY - MAY 2024

CNN (129 articles)
BBC (188 articles)
The New York Times (125 articles)
The Guardian (245 articles)
The Washington Post (180 articles)
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (111 articles)
Reuters (195 articles)
The Associated Press (205 articles)

Research Scale:

EXPERT LEADERSHIP TEAM: 8 members
VOLUNTEER RESEARCH TEAM (Coding and Data Collection): 42 members

The Team

We are an independent, volunteer-based group of researchers spanning from Australia to California, operating without organizational or private sponsorship.

Expert Team

Tatiana Glezer, Project Director, MA in Sociology, Community Manager
Maria Otto-Mendel, Project Coordinator, MA in Business and Management, Social Change Organizer, USA
Kirill Titaev, Scientific and Legal Counsellor, PhD in Law from Yale University, Senior Researcher at HSE Institute for Law and Development
Viktor Vakhshtayn, IISLS, Senior Research Fellow, Tel Aviv University, Former Dean and Professor of Sociology at Russian British University (MSSES, Moscow)
Alex Zernopolsky, IISLS, Legal Counsellor, Lawyer, Human Rights Activist
Mark Novikov, IISLS, Media Counsellor, PhD in Constitutional Law, Journalist
Vitalii Novoselov, IISLS, Media Counsellor, Political Science Researcher, Journalist
Elena Zelentsova, IISLS, Scientific Counsellor, Cultural Science Researcher

Phase One Volunteers

Olga Zhuravskaya, Community Engagement
Oxana Stanevich, Infographic Design
Alya Kirillova, Consultation
Elena Rabinovich, Data Collection
Bozhena Vistman, Data Collection
Anna Spektor, Data Collection
Anna Peshnaya, Data Collection
Marina Gerya, Data Collection
Valeriya Malik, Data Collection
Inna Sapozhnikova, Consultation
Seva Bederson, Consultation
Anna Smolyarova, Consultation
Daniil Baratz, Consultation
Vadim Barsuk, Research Support

Phase Two Volunteers

Anna Lange (Kochkina), Data Collection
Elena Rabinovitch, Data Collection
Inna Troik, Data Collection
Iris Gitlin, Data Collection
Jenny Bourstein, Data Collection
Jess Huberman, Data Collection
Julia Fix, Data Collection
Leva Reitblat, Data Collection
Manya Starostina, Data Collection
Matvey Skulachev, Data Collection
Oksana Stanevich, Data Analysis
Susanna Khazhinsky, Data Collection
Svetlana Frenkel, Data Collection
Verena Podolsky, Data Collection
Zoya Talitskaya, Data Collection
Vera Bin, Data Collection
Eugene Kolonsky, Automated Data Collection
Jane Yurkevich, Data Collection
Isabella M. Mestechkina, Data Collection
Kirill Demidov, Automated Data Collection
Lena Berenshtein, Data Collection
Lucie, Data Collection
Marina Kunin, Data Collection
Svetlana Skulacheva, Data Collection, Coding Methodology, Data Analysis
Semion Leyn, Data Collection
Sofia Bulgakova, Data Collection
Yury Plotkin, Data Collection
Olga Elkina, PR
Leonid Goldenberg, Media Consultant
Elana Bowman, Data Collection
Yakov Gitlin, Research Consultant
Konstantin Starobinets, Web Development

Literature

Evans, Matt. "Framing International Conflicts: Media Coverage of Fighting in the Middle East." NBER Working Paper No. 16152
"War, Cognitive Biases, and Perception Management: The Time Has Come." Military Strategy Magazine
"War, Casualties, and Public Opinion." JSTOR
"The Mental Health Effects of War." University of Utah Health
"Framing of International Conflicts." Top Essay Writing