The secret antenna, Airbus and China (part 2)
Just weeks after France detected a 
intelligence operation near its critical space sites, an Airbus satellite suddenly stopped working. The theory being favored by the French military implicates Beijing.
It's Mar 17, 2023, and the SPOT-7 (or Azersky) Earth observation satellite, which Airbus Group sold to Azerbaijani space agency Azercosmos in 2014, suddenly stopped transmitting. Experts from Airbus Defence and Space (ADS), the group's division specialising in satellites, are mobilised. One of the most likely explanations for the sudden shutdown is that SPOT-7 was hit by something in space. However, this possibility was quickly ruled out as no change in the satellite's orbital trajectory was observed. This would have been the case if it had been hit by a meteorite fragment or debris.
Another explanation could be that the device simply died a natural death. Although satellites can have a lifespan of up to 15 years, the wear and tear on key components varies from one satellite to another. Azersky, which Airbus had said was capable of operating for a decade, stopped working after eight years and nine months in orbit. This second hypothesis has not been ruled out by Airbus investigators. Even though SPOT-7 had a shorter lifespan than SPOT-6, also made by Airbus and still operational after being launched in 2012, it may have experienced different conditions in orbit (number of jolts, passing through clouds of space dust, etc) that made it age more quickly.
A third, much more complex line of inquiry is being pursued by the French Air and Space Force and the 
DGSE foreign intelligence agency. This involves determining whether SPOT-7 could have been disabled by a hostile state actor. Experts from the French ministry of armed forces who have looked into the matter believe that there is a wide range of evidence to support this scenario.
The first disturbing piece of information brought to light, notably by the Centre Opérationnel de Surveillance Militaire des Objets Spatiaux (COSMOS), an elite organization responsible for space intelligence for the French military, was that before disappearing, the Azerbaijani satellite lost both of its solar panels. The hydrocarbon tanks used to power its thrusters were also emptied. Space debris could explain some of the damage, except that, again, no collision was observed. These facts support the idea of malicious action against SPOT-7. One possibility being investigated is that the satellite was targeted by a cyberattack that allowed the attacker to take control of the guidance system.
This line of inquiry logically also raises the question of the potential attacker's identity. The geopolitical context, but above all the area that the Azercosmos satellite was observing, helped investigators shed some light on the matter. When it stopped transmitting in Mar 2023, about a year after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Azersky was positioned exactly above the Russian-Ukrainian border. According to a Western intelligence source, Baku was sending images taken by the satellite to the Ukrainian military.
Azerbaijan is a discreet ally of Kyiv and has continued to support Ukraine's territorial integrity. The loss of SPOT-7 in Mar 2023, in the midst of the conflict, would therefore have benefited Russia.
The possibility of Moscow carrying out an attack on the satellite has not been ruled out by various officials from the French ministry of armed forces who worked on the case: Russia is suspected of having carried out a cyberattack against 
Viasat in Feb 2022. That possibility is however considered "less likely" than action by Beijing. The theory of an attack by China, an essential partner of Russia, which at the time had limited satellite observation capabilities and was heavily dependent on imagery provided by Beijing, is being taken very seriously in Paris.
1/n
intelligenceonline.com/surveillance--
intelligence operation near its critical space sites, an Airbus satellite suddenly stopped working. The theory being favored by the French military implicates Beijing.
It's Mar 17, 2023, and the SPOT-7 (or Azersky) Earth observation satellite, which Airbus Group sold to Azerbaijani space agency Azercosmos in 2014, suddenly stopped transmitting. Experts from Airbus Defence and Space (ADS), the group's division specialising in satellites, are mobilised. One of the most likely explanations for the sudden shutdown is that SPOT-7 was hit by something in space. However, this possibility was quickly ruled out as no change in the satellite's orbital trajectory was observed. This would have been the case if it had been hit by a meteorite fragment or debris.
Another explanation could be that the device simply died a natural death. Although satellites can have a lifespan of up to 15 years, the wear and tear on key components varies from one satellite to another. Azersky, which Airbus had said was capable of operating for a decade, stopped working after eight years and nine months in orbit. This second hypothesis has not been ruled out by Airbus investigators. Even though SPOT-7 had a shorter lifespan than SPOT-6, also made by Airbus and still operational after being launched in 2012, it may have experienced different conditions in orbit (number of jolts, passing through clouds of space dust, etc) that made it age more quickly.
A third, much more complex line of inquiry is being pursued by the French Air and Space Force and the DGSE foreign intelligence agency. This involves determining whether SPOT-7 could have been disabled by a hostile state actor. Experts from the French ministry of armed forces who have looked into the matter believe that there is a wide range of evidence to support this scenario.
The first disturbing piece of information brought to light, notably by the Centre Opérationnel de Surveillance Militaire des Objets Spatiaux (COSMOS), an elite organization responsible for space intelligence for the French military, was that before disappearing, the Azerbaijani satellite lost both of its solar panels. The hydrocarbon tanks used to power its thrusters were also emptied. Space debris could explain some of the damage, except that, again, no collision was observed. These facts support the idea of malicious action against SPOT-7. One possibility being investigated is that the satellite was targeted by a cyberattack that allowed the attacker to take control of the guidance system.
This line of inquiry logically also raises the question of the potential attacker's identity. The geopolitical context, but above all the area that the Azercosmos satellite was observing, helped investigators shed some light on the matter. When it stopped transmitting in Mar 2023, about a year after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Azersky was positioned exactly above the Russian-Ukrainian border. According to a Western intelligence source, Baku was sending images taken by the satellite to the Ukrainian military.
Azerbaijan is a discreet ally of Kyiv and has continued to support Ukraine's territorial integrity. The loss of SPOT-7 in Mar 2023, in the midst of the conflict, would therefore have benefited Russia.
The possibility of Moscow carrying out an attack on the satellite has not been ruled out by various officials from the French ministry of armed forces who worked on the case: Russia is suspected of having carried out a cyberattack against Viasat in Feb 2022. That possibility is however considered "less likely" than action by Beijing. The theory of an attack by China, an essential partner of Russia, which at the time had limited satellite observation capabilities and was heavily dependent on imagery provided by Beijing, is being taken very seriously in Paris.
1/n
intelligenceonline.com/surveillance--