GOLD: Is Winnipeg's new transit plan the next New Coke flop?

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The first few days of the new routes and schedule system for Winnipeg Transit explain perfectly why so many city councillors refused to hold proper consultations with their wards — they didn’t want to hear how many glitches their new system would encounter. They just wanted to “git ‘er done.” Some of the drawbacks were glaringly obvious just by standing on the streets where the bus routes were going and observing the roadways and traffic movements.

A city spokesman claimed to me last month that the routes were all test-driven and buses could handle the turns. That was either misinformation or no one cares about accidents waiting to happen.

Residents of Wolseley made clear that pavement on Arlington south of Portage was not going to handle the rumble of 100 buses a day, and that the roads were too narrow. I drove it before the changes were implemented and it was apparent their concerns were legitimate.

Sure enough, video of a bus trying to turn left from Arlington onto the Wolseley Avenue greenway on Tuesday showed the front wheels mounting the curb, and westbound cars had to do a slow backwards jig for the bus to finally get squared away and proceed. It was embarrassing to watch. Just wait till kids going to school on bikes get added in the fall.

At Ellice Ave. at Garry St. downtown, I saw the same issue with the Ellice buses turning southbound. They all mounted the curb. You’ll of course be footing the bill for the repairs, not Transit planners or the Mayor.

The sales job to justify removing bus stands and various long-time routes has been that as long as you can get to a main transit line, there will be buses galore and the walking and waiting and transferring will be worth it. The glitch in that is, people aren’t stupid.

While councillors like Public Works Chair Janice Lukes insist it’s just a learning curve in play, that’s a total smokescreen. Fare-paying transit riders are learning they have to walk much longer, constantly get on and off the buses to make connections, and get zero service in their neighbourhoods. That was a deliberate calculation made by the Gillingham government.

A City Hall official explained, “Remember this switch is about improving service for most users. Not tailoring it to all. The widest part of the bell curve of transit users and potential users is the target. We’re targeting the 10-90th percentiles. That’s mostly during the day and rush hour. That means one in five get reduced service. But the 80% gets better. Everybody who lost something in it will complain. But there are far more that gain with this system. And as they discover that, ridership should grow.”

While thousands of current customers who rely on Transit face an astonishing cut to their services, the tall foreheads at 510 Main Street have convinced themselves that new customers will magically materialize and “hop on.” It’s like the theory behind the launch of New Coke in 1985, which lasted all of 79 days before the original was brought back.

“To say I am hugely disappointed is as nice as I can put it,” wrote Larry on the WiseUp Winnipeg group. His half-hour ride now takes “3 transfers!” and 44 minutes. He told of a woman who used to cross Portage Avenue to get her connection and now has a six-block walk. Bryan replied that his new stop, replacing a shelter, was plunked where deep puddles form, and there he waited for 40 minutes — until the bus he needed failed to show up.

All walks of life are affected by the cutbacks in Transit service. A young mother discovered she has to walk her toddler 15 minutes to get to her daycare, when the direct bus route was axed. “Not looking forward to doing that in winter.”

Another mother, needing to get her child to an 8:45 a.m. medical appointment, found they’d need to leave their house at 6 a.m. She’ll have to backtrack blocks to transfer, then repeat the process over and over again, kid in tow.

“All transfers are not in the best of areas,” she wrote, and she also flagged that the Navigo app has “been a nightmare itself” with its own glitches.

Lukes received an email from a husband concerned that his wife won’t be able to get to her day job in Point Douglas. “She downloaded the on-request app and it told her there’s no routes available… The only solution 311 provided was for her to walk to Midwinter which we have mapped out and the shortest distance walking there is 1.3 kilometers. She cannot walk great distances without being in extreme pain to the point where she will collapse, which her doctor is still trying to figure out. Can you please offer a solution to this problem?” he pleaded.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, evening shift workers also get the shaft under the “new and improved” Transit plan.

A woman reported that “I just found out two co-workers have no choice but to be giving their two-week notices,” leaving one in tears, after evening service to their workplace was cut. “People being forced to quit their jobs now. These bus service changes are doing more harm than good.”

Already an example of harm has emerged, after a 70-year-old senior collapsed after an extra two-block walk in the heat and no bus bench or shelter at the new stop. “Your stupid new bus has put her in the hospital,” fumed her daughter. “She was lost the other day transferring 4 buses and got discouraged and cabbed home after. Going out 2 nights a week is her treat of the week.”

A previous column revealed that Transit planned no new efforts to stop freeloaders. With reduced service on a route from Kildonan Park, one reader saw the result — 20 often unruly fare skippers jumped on his ride. “Transit will be better the day they enforce paying for your fare,” he said.

This revamp focused on the narrowest part of the big picture. In the long run, it’s the quality of the product that really matters. That includes the cleanliness and comfort of the buses — the hard plastic seats are brutal — and amenities like benches and shelters, on-time performance and convenience, and most importantly, safety which includes barring the freeloaders who cause 90% of the problems. When Transit doesn’t deliver those basic standards, people will choose to drive a vehicle instead of taking a bus.

“Just remember endowment effect,” the city official told me. “Those that lose will value more than those that gain.”

When school’s back in September, even more seniors, workers, and families will find out how much they have lost. And then they’ll be walking and waiting in -30 winter weather. Those people are also endowed with the power of the ballot box at the next civic election. Gillingham’s gamble is that they’ll forget by then and it won’t affect his re-election. That might be like betting on New Coke.

— Marty Gold is a Winnipeg journalist and a guest writer for the Winnipeg Sun. You can find more of his work at The Great Canadian Talk Show

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