South Korea and Japan represent agrarian cultures where rice is a staple food. In Korea, greetings like “Have you been eating well?” and proverbs such as “Generosity comes from a full rice jar” show how deeply rice is embedded in daily life and emotional culture. Likewise, in Japan, the saying “Even if you rule the world, your portion is only two and a half cups” teaches the value of moderation and emphasizes the importance of rice. What would happen if people couldn’t buy rice in such rice-based countries? Recently, in Japan—a nation where rice is central to food culture—a shortage of rice due to unknown causes has led to social disruption.
Japan’s Circumstances
4,077 yen per 5kg. This is the average price of rice during the first week of March, as announced by Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) on March 17. This is more than 2.5 times the price in Korea. Compared to the previous year, when the price had remained around 2,000 yen per 5kg, rice prices have more than doubled, causing direct inconveniences for Japanese consumers since last summer. In major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, rice has become difficult to find on supermarket shelves, and in some cases, signs are posted restricting purchases to one sack per family. In Japan, this incident is called the "Reiwa(令和) Rice Riot." The term is a reference to the "Taisho(大正) Rice Riot" of 1918 caused by speculation, and the "Heisei(平成) Rice Riot" of 1993 caused by a record-breaking cold spell. In Korean terms, it is as if the average price of a bowl of rice had risen to 3,000 won nationwide, and a basic gimbap roll now costs around 7,000 won—with prices expected to rise even further. Additionally, food and restaurant industries that use rice as a main ingredient—such as donburi, sushi, musubi, onigiri, and boxed meals—are suffering immense losses due to increased costs and shrinking consumption.
Major factors
As previously stated, the factor of this rice panic is unclear. It cannot be explained merely by supply disruptions or poor harvests. Experts analyze that the fundamental reasons for the abnormal price surge and instability in distribution are complex, with multiple factors entangled simultaneously.
The primary factor is the weakening of the rice production infrastructure itself. Due to aging populations, labor shortages, and declining profitability from falling rice prices, Japan’s agricultural workforce has been rapidly shrinking. In addition, the Japanese government designated rice as an overproduced crop and implemented a policy to reduce production, offering subsidies to farmers who grew crops other than rice, assuming that annual rice consumption would drop by 10,000 tons. As of 2023, about 20% of rice paddies in Japan were used for growing crops other than staple rice, according to MAFF, which created a structural problem that reduced supply elasticity.
The additional and most decisive factor was the public’s anxiety about natural disasters. On August 8, 2024, the Japanese government announced that a big earthquake was likely to occur in Japan in the near future following the Nankai Earthquake. As speculation spread among the public that a large earthquake could occur in July 2025, anxiety quickly escalated. As a result, many households began stockpiling rice for disaster preparedness. On top of this, the forecasted landfall of Typhoon No. 10 “San San” further spurred demand for rice. This panic buying rapidly disrupted rice distribution networks and intensified market confusion.
Japan’s Action and Public Reaction
With Japan’s “Rice Riot,” which began in 2024, expected to continue, the government and the distribution industry have launched emergency response measures. First, the Japanese government released 200,000 tons of national reserve rice to address short-term supply-demand imbalances. Starting in early 2025, MAFF began supplying some of the reserve rice to the market and urgently allocated budget funds to stabilize prices and restore the supply chain. Amid this, Korean rice is emerging as a strong import alternative. According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation, exports of Korean rice to Japan in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 38% compared to the same period last year, and additional emergency contracts have been signed since May in response to rising demand.
Previously, high tariffs had virtually blocked rice exports to Japan, but the ongoing rice crisis has changed the situation. Korean rice is considered superior in quality compared to American rice and is subject to relatively lower tariffs, driving up demand. As prices rise, exporting Korean rice becomes profitable even with moderate tariffs. As a result, Korea has succeeded in launching full-scale rice exports to Japan for the first time since the 1990s. This is seen as an unusual change in the traditionally conservative Japanese rice market. Sales prices are around 9,000 yen for 10kg and 4,104 yen for 4kg—somewhat higher than the price of Japanese rice at over 4,000 yen per 5kg. Nevertheless, Korean rice has completely sold out on official online malls like ‘Korean Nonghyup’ in Japan, Amazon Japan, and Korean supermarkets. Among Japanese consumers, positive reviews such as “There’s almost no difference from Japanese rice” coexist with lingering psychological resistance stemming from a preference for domestic rice and skepticism toward foreign—especially Korean—products.
Positive Impact on Korea
With domestic rice prices, which had long been in decline due to oversupply and weak demand, now gradually stabilizing thanks to exports to Japan, hopes are rising for a market recovery. In the past, domestic rice production remained steady, but declining consumption forced Korean farmers to shoulder the burden of unsold inventory. However, with Korean rice receiving unexpected popularity and selling out early in the Japanese market, expectations for price recovery are growing. The Japanese government decided at the end of April to expand rice imports from Korea from 2 tons to 22 tons, opening new opportunities for Korean rice exports. This move is seen not only as a short-term crisis response but as a structural measure to expand imports and is being welcomed as a major opportunity by the Korean agricultural sector. If surplus supply, which the domestic market alone cannot absorb, can be redirected to external markets, the domestic supply-demand balance could be achieved, and previously depressed farm-gate prices could recover. In fact, rice prices in some regions are already rising compared to last year, and farmers are regaining motivation to ship their products.
Although the supply issue has been somewhat resolved, a drop in rice prices is unlikely in the near future, meaning that interest in imported rice in Japan is expected to continue. This export success is not just a one-time event, but shows the potential to shift Korea’s stagnant rice industry toward an export-oriented structure. Of course, Japan’s high tariff barriers remain an obstacle to building a sustainable and stable export structure. However, this export marks a strategic first step—not only generating profit but also expanding brand awareness, testing market response, and securing long-term distribution channels.
The entry of Korean rice into foreign markets has only just begun. The challenge now lies in how to refine that structure and make it sustainable.