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Also, a nice thing to watch out for is the development in nearby nation's capitals. You could potentially have the AI develop part of the way to an Institution for you. This is what I did to get Renaissance as Japan, as for some reason Korea bumped up their capital's dev by about 20 points.
OK, that sounds simple enough, if time-consuming. I'll work towards that, then.
As for the rest of you, I'll keep an eye on nearby capitals, but I see no sign that Japan is colonizing anywhere (not yet, at least), and I'm sure that Ming won't.
As I said, I can't afford to spend monarch points on this one (and certainly not admin points!). But who knows? It's going to take me years to get a Colonial Nation, and things might change.
Thanks for the replies!
So to basically sum it up:
Colonialism has to be enabled, a.k.a. it has already spawned
None of your provinces can have Colonialism already present
You must have the Quest for the New World idea, which will automatically be done by filling out the exploration idea group
The number of colonial subjects that you have must not be equal to 1
Any known country has the Colonialism Institution
You either own land not in the New World, or all of your land is in the New World; not too important
The Mean Time to Happen is 400 months, which equal to about 33 years; this means that the event will take, at most, 33 years to happen, although it can happen before.
The Mean Time to Happen can be cut in half by a country in your religious group having the Colonialism Institution
But I'll wait for ten years or so. (It's 1501, and Colonization has already started in Europe.) I'll hope for positive events, but if nothing else happens by then, I'll bite the bullet and spend the monarch points.
At least now, after dumping one crappy leader and one crappy heir and having others die in office, I've got a slightly-below-average leader with an average heir. So maybe I'll be able to afford the monarch points, after all. (These guys look a lot better than the people I've had previously!)
Don't get me wrong, I'm having a blast playing Korea. The fact that Ming and Japan are both dangerous enemies just makes it better. As long as I survive, at least. :)
Thanks again for the replies.
Edit: Re. that last post, I haven't even seen the New World yet, and we know nothing about Europe, but those things are likely to change. So who knows?
Thanks for looking for it! In EU4 math though "=" actually means ">=" - so no colonial subjects.