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How to Invest When Everything Yields the Same

One option is to look outside the U.S., where some are betting on another ‘great convergence’ among investment assets

James Mackintosh

ET

Trader at the NYSE viewing stock market data on multiple monitors.
Wall Street forecasts more than 13% earnings growth next year. Photo: angela weiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Here’s an investment puzzle: Treasurys, stocks, cash and corporate bonds all yield about the same. Either risky assets are less rewarding than usual or safe assets are less safe than usual. Or, perhaps, both.

The gap between the highest and lowest yields among the main U.S. assets is the smallest in 40 years, having dropped after the election in November and stayed low. This uses the earnings yield for stocks, the earnings divided by price, or the inverse of the PE ratio, along with the yields on the three-month Treasury bill, as a proxy for cash, the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys and the ICE BofA U.S. corporate bond index.

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