Henry Foy in Brussels
Published
21
European governments are braced for high-stakes negotiations with US President Donald Trump that will put the continent’s defence, economy and security on the line.
Grand designs to build “an independent Europe” are on hold as officials strain to maintain Trump’s support through five weeks of crunch talks over Ukraine, transatlantic trade and the US security commitment to Nato.
Europe’s negotiators are increasingly concerned that the US president will demand concessions in one area in exchange for support in another, forcing the EU to sacrifice its core values or accept a firm break with Washington.
“All these crises, all at once: it’s the perfect storm,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s former chief diplomat who stepped down in November. “He may try to squeeze us, and could push us in the corner from all three directions.”
“He could tell us: ‘If you don’t give me a good trade deal, then we will not support Ukraine.’ Or, ‘If you push me to support Ukraine, then we will add to [our requirements for you to increase] your military expenditure for Nato,’ for example.”
Ukrainian soldiers load a shell into an American-made M777 Howitzer
Ukrainian troops load shells into a US-made Howitzer: European leaders worry that Trump will cut off US supplies of equipment to the front © Scott Peterson/Getty Images
Senior EU officials have discussed worst-case scenarios in all three aspects. They include the complete suspension of US support to Ukraine, cutting off intelligence and preventing European countries from providing US-bought weapons; a full-scale trade war with wrenching consequences for economic growth; and the rapid withdrawal from Europe of US troops and military capabilities.
“This has morphed from best-case scenarios to damage control,” said one senior EU official. “On trade, defence and Ukraine, the choice is between a bad outcome and a very bad outcome.”
Trump will first square off with European leaders at the G7 summit in Canada in 11 days’ time, where officials expect that the US president will clarify his support for Ukraine and sanctions plan for Russia. European capitals want Trump to pledge ongoing support to Kyiv, but fear he wants a peace deal that would leave Ukraine, and the rest of Europe, vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
A week later, Nato leaders will gather in The Hague, with European capitals hoping their promises of increased defence spending will convince Trump to maintain US support for European defence and deter him from slashing his deployments of troops and weapons.
The following day, EU leaders will huddle for a summit in Brussels knowing they have less than two weeks to negotiate a trade deal with Trump to avoid 50 per cent tariffs that could devastate the continent’s economy.
“We see [Ukraine, European defence and trade] as separate issues but to Trump, he just sees the same faces presenting him with various annoying questions. He’s not going to treat them differently in different contexts,” said a senior EU diplomat.
“So we’re essentially one [social media] post or one press conference remark away from calamity on three existential issues for Europe: defence, economy and security,” they added. “And that’s why everyone is so tense.”
From left, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Keir Starmer, Donald Trump of the US and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy confer during Pope Francis’s funeral at the Vatican in April
From left, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Keir Starmer, Donald Trump of the US and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy confer during Pope Francis’s funeral at the Vatican in April © Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Getty Images
That fear of Trump bundling the issues into one negotiation, and using a lack of progress in one area to punish the bloc in another, is Brussels’ most pressing concern, diplomats and officials said.
Meetings of ambassadors from the EU’s 27 states in recent weeks have been marked by concern about the lack of options available to the bloc, officials briefed on the talks said. Being firm in one area risks backlash in another, they said.
“[The discussions] are just surreal,” said one of the officials. “The answer to all the big problems we face is: America. And America is supposed to be our closest ally.”
France’s long-standing push for greater European independence from America has gathered many more supporters since Trump’s re-election last November.
“Our next great era, the next great unifying project, is about building an independent Europe,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech last week.
However, in private, member state diplomats and EU officials are deeply concerned about how the region’s vulnerabilities may divide countries that support so-called strategic autonomy from those who believe the transatlantic relationship must be defended at all costs.
“The relationship with the US is fundamental . . . to preserve the strength of the west. Our destinies are intertwined,” Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, perhaps Trump’s closest political ally in Europe, said last week.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is perhaps Donald Trump’s closest political ally in Europe © Riccardo Antimiani/EPA/Shutterstock
“[The dialogue with Washington] must be carried on with wisdom and common sense, and with a more political than bureaucratic approach,” Meloni said.
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the German Marshall Fund, said European capitals now took a “much more realistic” approach to the transatlantic relationship.
But she added: “What are our shared interests? We have never really had that conversation . . . The offer, the proposition, will have to come from Brussels and to that extent they are still not prepared.”
Trump’s shifting positions have made it even more complex to co-ordinate responses among the 27 member states on the three issues.
Signs that Trump is growing impatient with Russia’s Vladimir Putin have raised hopes that he could even support more sanctions on Moscow. He has praised efforts by Nato partners to increase spending but also threatened troop withdrawals from Europe. And his multiple flip-flops on tariffs threats have left many wondering how serious he should be taken.
“We cannot allow ourselves to . . . once again fall for the fallacy that the storm will pass,” von der Leyen said in her speech last week. “That things will go back to how they were before: if only the war would end, or a tariff deal be struck, or the next elections have a different outcome. No, they will not.”
While a long-term goal of a more autonomous Europe may be spreading among European capitals, the short-term answer of how to keep the US onside while the continent develops its alternative future is proving difficult.
“Are we in trouble?” a senior EU official involved in the discussions said. “Yes. We’re in trouble.”
Additional reporting by Guiliana Ricozzi in Rome.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025. All rights reserved.

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The EU are running around like headless chickens - so embarrassing.

Decades of military underfunding, freeloaders like Ireland still only spending 0.2% of GDP on defence, riven by internal disagreements, still unable to defend itself or properly support Ukraine.

Von der Leyen was the Defence Minister of Germany and left her troops to run around with broomsticks, such was her underfunding of defence:


"The German Army had to join a NATO exercise with broomsticks because they didn’t have any rifles."

The odious Trump isn't wrong about everything.
So Trump is doing to the EU the things they tend to do to others when negotiating. It’s a bit rich if they are complaining about it.
Europe has to step up, which should have happenend a long, long time ago. Forget the US and the Trumpclan. They only have interest in themselves and least of all Europe or their own citizens. If a good deal with Putin could be had, they will drop everyone else, like a hot potato.
They should accept the permanent break with Washington.

It's over, and there are no "shared values" of the West, etc either with MAGA or Silicon Valley

To them we are simply a contemptible imperial fiefdom to be sucked dry and discarded
EU is a completely useless organisation. Trump has every right to do all of above mentioned in the article. And if he is an elected president to protect American interests, he must do all;
1. Leave Ukraine bill to Europe
2. Either to leave Nato or demand all to pay for their fair share.
3. Imply tarrifs to balance thrle trade deficit
Trump is completely erratic and unpredictable. What he says today, he can un-say tomorrow. Trump is neither an ally nor an enemy; he’s both at the same time. And he is completely shameless about all of this.
So the problems for Europe’s leaders are there to stay; at least for the next 4 years. There can be no long term strategy, no lasting objective in relations with Trump USA. It’s a moving game. Keep your eye on the ball and play it as it comes. And focus on non USA stuff.
Deal, America maintains their frankly minimal support for Ukraine, and in return we increase to 3.5% of GDP on defence spending, and America pulls out of European bases.

I'd he happy with that.
It’s been such a disappointment to see EU trade negotiators trying to accommodate trump. I understand why they’re doing this (a consent-based EU needs to make many countries at least kinda happy, unlike China or Canada, which can basically rule unilaterally) but I’d really love to see the EU taking a tougher stance against the trump regime.

Also, obviously, we need to actually positively do everything to help Ukraine and build up our own military
Trump is completely untrustworthy !
He is only interested in Trump and his own image.
USA is just a means to achieve this in the strongest way.
Just do what we have to do !
Do not lose our soul for a world where we don’t like to live in.
(Edited)
Yes, it is indeed a perfect storm and Europe is in deep doodoo. We wasted precious resources on millions of unproductive citizens, imported millions of folks who hate us and our cultures (or care nothing about them), taxed everyone to the max so there’s no room to manoeuvre now, did nothing about growth, cut zero red tape, never created a European capital market to rival the USA, have allowed rogue EU members to veto important initiatives, the UK shot itself in the face in leaving the EU but this also weakened the EU, and we’ve let our defences dwindle to a laughable old rust bucket.
No one in Europe will vote for the drastic change that is needed. And so we will slide further into the abyss.

Kowtowing to the Fat Orange will not help us. But neither will defying him. A perfect storm indeed.
"Europe confronts Trump’s triple threat on Ukraine, Nato and trade"

Europe confronts its own responsibilities to back Ukraine, defend itself and create a dynamic market economy.
It's time to accept that greater European independence comes with some short term pain but holds substantial opportunities for the mid and long term. As long as we try to keep the cake and eat it at the same time we won't get anywhere. Let's prepare for a few difficult years to build a stronger Europe.
Reminds me of a joke (not particularly good) that “when you make love with a gorilla, you don’t stop when you’re tired but when he’s tired”?

The relationship with the current administration in the U.S. needs to be managed for risk management rather than positive outcomes. Kick the can down the road, offer some concessions here and there but (1) prevent the U.S. from lifting sanctions against Russia, (2) make it plain that if tariffs are excessive, the EU has no choice but to turn towards Asia.

There’s every chance that this administration may well pass and, eventually, the relationship with the U.S. can return to the search of win-win propositions. But the war in Ukraine can only stop on terms that offer a definite settlement to all involved and prevent a renewed Russian push somewhere else.
Divorce is always painful and messy especially when you still love your partner and you know they've had a breakdown.
Best to try and make it amicable and focus on building positive lives without each other. There will be new partners in time, no need to rush. Focus on keeping fit and positive and treat this as an opportunity.
We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.
A maxim to which Henry Kissinger subscribed
The Biden team saw limiting Russian power in America's national interest; Trump perhaps sees it as primarily as Europe's problem.

I suspect Palmerston thought of himself as English, not "European"! But Europe in its long history has a whole array of outstanding thinkers with legendary diplomatic skills to draw upon.

As of now, Europe seems close to a headless chicken in its interaction with Trump
Palmerston had a slight advantage in the shape of unchallenged supremacy at sea via the Royal Navy, a huge manufacturing economy and access to unlimited resources from an Empire.
(Edited)
Or, ‘If you push me to support Ukraine, then we will add to [our requirements for you to increase] your military expenditure for Nato,’ for example.”
Ukraine is dependent* on America for aid because Europe is dependent on America for hard power. It's shocking how consistently some European governments avoid committing to their own defense, even in the midst of a "generational investment in the military". As long as these European powers still view defense spending as a penalty to be negotiated away rather than an obligation to fulfill to your neighbors and citizens, Ukraine will continue to be in a fragile geopolitical state.

*yes they have top notch drones and are exceptionally brave. But I'm speaking here of targeting intelligence, patriot batteries, f-16s, HIMARS, ATACMS, etc
Agreed, the failure of most European nations to meet minimum defense requirements is only highlighted by their pathetic squealing now they’ve been asked to spend the *minimum* amount
Europe's vulnerability on defence is our own mistake. We should have stepped up earlier and are now paying the price.
The rest is entirely Trump's doing. He is acting like a maffia boss going for another shakedown.
But: "to avoid 50 per cent tariffs that could devastate the continent’s economy" is overstating the case. This has been analysed by reputable economic institutions and while painful and unnecessary, Europe can cope with the effects of tarrifs.
This is no time for panic. Trump will inflict damage on us, just because he is that kind of guy. Because we allowed ourselves to be vulnerable on defence, we now have to swallow the pain. First priority is Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine must survive as a sovereign and viable state, or we will have to face an aggressive Russia elsewhere immediately.
All the command and control systems are based on the US ones - because they are expensive to build and provide, and because the US said so. You don't replace these in 6 months. Airborne radar systems, satellites, autonomous and compatible communications systems, etc will take years. And starting to move away is already an hostile act, so you will do it only if the breakup is done. This the hope of some of patching things up with Trump, it's not absurd given that alternative, it it is increasingly delusional.

That said, the EU does have strength on the econflict and trade fronts and should not be scared to use that. Taxes or outright bans on some us services should be on the table.
Best friends can be fraught at the best of times but when they flip flop on a daily basis, indeed it is better to make new friends. After all trust, consistency and loyalty are the basis of a great relationship.