In 2025, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries will make record high debt repayments totalling $22 billion to China. Beijing has transitioned from capital provider to net financial drain on developing country budgets as debt servicing costs on Belt and Road Initiative projects from the 2010s now far outstrip new loan disbursements.
China continues to finance strategic and resource-critical partners despite a broader collapse in its global lending. The largest recipients of new lending include immediate neighbors, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, and developing countries that are critical mineral or battery metal exporters, such as Argentina, Brazil, Congo DR, and Indonesia.
In 54 of 120 developing countries with available data, debt service payments to China now exceed the combined payments owed to the Paris Club — a bloc that includes all major Western bilateral lenders. Chinese debt servicing is particularly dominant in Africa but also equals or exceeds that owed to Paris Club members by a majority of countries in South America, the Pacific Islands, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Debt servicing to Paris Club creditors remains larger in only Eastern Europe, Central America, and the Middle East.
theguardian.com/world/2025/may
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