A few weeks ago, ALM Fazlur Rahman, a retired major general and an adviser to Bangladesh's interim government, kicked up a storm with his Facebook post after the Pahalgam terror attack when India was planning to attack terror infrastructure in Pakistan. “If India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh should occupy seven states of North East India. In this regard, I think it is necessary to start a discussion on a joint military system with China," he wrote in Bangla. Though the Bangladesh government distanced itself from his remarks, they indicated a developing threat for India on its eastern border.

Hostile and unstable, Bangladesh is emerging as a threat to peace in India's northeast. Ever since toppling of the Sheikh Hasina government last year, Bangladesh has adopted an inimical posture towards India as hardliners took control of the country, attacking Hindu minority and members of Hasina's party which has recently been banned.

Threat to India's northeastern states
Bangladesh's interim government chief adviser, Muhammad Yunus, while he was on a four-day visit to China in March, invited Beijing to make an "extension" in the region while mentioning that the seven northeastern states of India remain landlocked.

Yunus encouraged the Chinese government to establish an economic base in Bangladesh, emphasising that Dhaka is the "sole guardian of the ocean" in the region. "Seven states of India, eastern part of India, called seven sisters ... they are landlocked country, landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean," Yunus said in the video.

"We are the only guardian of the ocean for all this region. So this opens up a huge possibility. So this could be an extension of the Chinese economy. Build things, produce things, market things, bring things to China, bring it out to the whole rest of the world," Yunus said. The remark drew concern in India, particularly given China’s persistent territorial claims over Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as ‘South Tibet’ in official maps, and its continued practice of unilaterally renaming locations in the state.

The indication by Yunus of Bangladesh welcoming Chinese influence in India's northeast assumed gravity with the news that China may assist Bangladesh in reviving a World War II-era airbase at Lalmonirhat in Rangpur Division, located just 12-15 km from the Indian border. Some Chinese officials recently visited the site, as per a TOI report. The airfield, currently under the control of the Bangladesh Air Force, has remained inactive for decades. Dhaka is reportedly seeking Beijing’s support to bring it back into operation.

The airbase is located 135 km from the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ – India’s narrow land link to its northeastern states. While it remains unclear whether the revived airfield would serve civilian or military purposes, any potential Chinese presence so close to the India-Bangladesh border could heighten the strategic vulnerability of the corridor.

China’s interest in Lalmonirhat is understandable given its proximity to the Siliguri corridor, a critical chokepoint just 22 km wide at its narrowest point that has long been a strategic vulnerability for India. It connects eight NE states – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura – to the rest of the country. Squeezed between Nepal and Bangladesh, and with Bhutan and China just a few hundred kilometers away, the Siliguri Corridor is a critical lifeline for both civilian transit and military logistics in India.

India's answer to Bangladesh threats
India decided to place restrictions on Bangladeshi products being exported to North-East India after several comments made by the interim regime including by Yunus that it can choke the prosperity of NE states by denying them access to the Bay of Bengal. The move is expected to disrupt Bangladesh's garment industry, raising costs and limiting market access, while creating new opportunities for Indian manufacturers.

Besides this immediate response to Yunus' ill-conceived comments, India has sent a billions-dollar message to Bangladesh on India's northeastern states.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised the government's focus on the northeastern states. Speaking at the inaugural session of 'Rising North East Investor Summit', PM Modi junked the notion that geography could be a deterrent for NorthEast's growth. He positioned the region at the heart of India's Act East Policy, and said that "the NorthEast will become a strong bridge and gateway for Asean trade".

Adani Group, Reliance Industries, and Vedanta announced at the Summit that they plan to invest an additional Rs 30,000-Rs 50,000 crore (approximately $4 billion to $6 billion) each in northeast India.

Speaking at the event, Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director, said Reliance Industries has committed to investing Rs 45,000 crore more in the Northeast. "Reliance has invested around Rs 30,000 crore in the region in the past 40 years," he said, adding, "In the next five years, we will more than double our investments, with our target at Rs 75,000 crore".RIL's investments will cover telecom, retail, renewable energy, biofuel, healthcare, and sports infrastructure across all eight Northeastern states.

Gautam Adani-led Adani Group pledged a Rs 1 lakh crore investment commitment for Assam and the broader Northeast region over the next decade. Adani said the group's investment will focus on green energy, power transmission, roads, digital infrastructure, logistics, and human capital development. The commitment doubles the Rs 50,000 crore investment announced by the Adani Group just three months ago at the Advantage Assam 2.0 summit.

Natural resources major Vedanta announced a Rs 80,000 crore investment in the region, including Rs 50,000 crore in Assam that it had announced earlier this year. These investments will be made in oil & gas, critical minerals, refining facilities, power, optical fibre, system integration, renewable energy, transmission sectors and data centres in six northeastern states. The investment is expected to generate 100,000 jobs.

(With inputs from TOI)