2 What is the biophysical economy?
From a biophysical perspective, the history of human civilization has been marked by the pursuit of energy, energy exploiting technologies, and the economic surpluses that they allow accompanied by the energy transformations that have enabled the development of our complex socio-economic systems. Earlier economic theories, before the “marginal revolution” of the 1880s, often had a biophysical basis, as do a growing number of more modern theories. The latter have argued that conventional economics has many flaws, including that the modern theory of markets, based on mathematical models, methodological individualism, and equilibrium analysis, ignores the main drivers of socio-economic development while making other assumptions that do not reflect reality. For example, Georgescu-Roegen (1979) stressed that mathematics is a tautological system, and thus incapable of capturing the evolutionary qualitative changes that characterize socio-economic development. Daly et al. (1994) stress that we are not atomistic individuals motivated by self-interest, but rather persons-in-community whose very identity is constituted by relations to others. Gowdy and Erickson (2005) argue about the absurdity of replacing realism with the formalism of an equilibrium theory that assumes individualism, rationality, perfect information and that all agents are price-taking economic actors. In addition to these critiques of conventional economic theory, Polanyi et al. (1957) provided a useful biophysical definition of economics: “The substantive meaning of economics derives from [humans] dependence for [their] living upon nature and [their] fellows. It refers to the interchange with [their] natural and social environment, insofar as this results in supplying [them] with the means of material want satisfaction” (p. 243). In this section, we unpack this dependence of economies on the material world by first reviewing the intellectual foundations of a biophysical approach to the economy, including the formative years of ecological economics and the current renaissance in BPE.
2.1 Shared roots of biophysical and ecological economics
BPE and EE emerged together from the same roots and at one point could be considered one field. They are rooted in the diverse disciplines, life and times of a number of quite varied social and natural scientists and philosophers. The evolution of BPE as anything like a formal discipline begins in the 18th century with the physiocrats' focus on the land as the source of wealth, and the discovery of the laws of thermodynamics in the 19th century that helped to reconcile biology and physics. It got a large boost with the economic and oil crises of the 20th century, and continues to focus on transitioning to less carbon intensive socio-economic systems (Cleveland, 1987, 1999; Czech, 2013; Rees, 2016).
Beginning with the transition from mercantilism to classical economics, a French school of economics called physiocracy or ‘rule by nature’ briefly flourished. Quesnay (1758), Mirabeau (1763), and Dupont de Nemours (1767) developed the Tableau Economique (later adopted in neoclassical economics for general equilibrium and multisectoral input-output systems (Leontief, 1941; Meek, 1963)), and the conceptualization that the wealth of nations came directly from the surplus of the land. They theorized that the economy was driven by a Natural Law, composed of physical and moral laws, that transcended human free will (Quesnay, 1765). Adam Smith (1776) himself stated that “…with all its imperfections, [the Physiocratic system] is perhaps the nearest approximation to the truth that has yet been published upon the subject of political economy, and is upon that account well worth the consideration of every [human] who wishes to examine with attention the principles of that very important science.”
The physiocrats' natural philosophy could not be developed further until the laws of thermodynamics and the meaning of energy, more generally, were discovered in the 19th century. Scientific curiosity led 28-year-old Sadi Carnot (1824) to stumble upon thermodynamics when he encountered an efficiency limit that steam engines could not exceed. His work on heat and energy transformations was an imperative for the bourgeoning industrial economy, and laid the foundation for Rudolf Clausius (1851, 1867) who, with the help of Lord Kelvin, formulated the first law of thermodynamics (which states that the total quantity of energy is conserved), and to develop the concept of entropy which allowed him to formalize the second law of thermodynamics (which states that the total quality of energy is not conserved).
Building on this thermodynamic foundation, the 20th century saw an insurrection of biophysical thought led by creative thinkers in the natural and social sciences who had the audacity to get out of their disciplinary boxes to question conventional thinking. The mathematical biologist Alfred Lotka (1922) described evolution as a race between energy transformers whose existence relied on capturing available energy in the most efficient way possible for the preservation of the species. In Elements of Physical Biology, Lotka (1925), introduces the term ‘biophysics’ (later adopted in BPE), and the theories he lays out there (including “maximum power”) would become instrumental in the development of ecosystem science and energetics that system ecologists would apply decades later to natural and social systems.
Frederick Soddy, a Nobel laureate in chemistry, theorized that wealth creation was ultimately biophysical in nature, and, thus, “the principles and ethics of all human conventions must not run counter to those of thermodynamics” (Soddy 1922, p.9). Consequently, this led Soddy (1926, 1933) to publish Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt, where he concluded that the Achilles heel of economics was its disregard for the thermodynamics of real wealth. Instead the financial sector relies on mathematical laws (e.g. compound interest) to create ‘virtual’ wealth derived from debt that lacks a physical dimension. Furthermore, Soddy realized the ‘flamboyant’ pre-depression era of the 1920s was made possible by an energy transition that replaced humans' reliance on “energy revenue” (solar energy) with high concentrations of “energy capital” (fossil fuels), which could not last forever (for more on Soddy's economic thought see Daly, 1986).
Another prominent foundation of biophysical thinking is the work of Leslie A. White, an unconventional anthropologist who believed that the evolution of human culture was inextricably linked to energy. Writing during WWII, White (1943) described civilization as a form or organization of energy, and believed that culture, being a kind of behavior, could be treated as a manifestation of energy use. This led White to propose the law of cultural evolution (White's law) stating that “culture develops when the amount of energy harnessed by man per capita per year is increased; or as the efficiency of the technological means of putting this energy to work is increased; or, as both factors are simultaneously increased” (1943, p. 338). White (1949, 1959) believed that culture was composed of three subsystems (technological, sociological and ideological), and of these the technological system played the primary role as it allowed humans to harness energy and adapt to different environments.
Cottrell (1955, 1972), a railroad man turned sociologist, was also interested in the relationship between energy and human systems. Cottrell's (1955) approach in Energy and Society was both descriptive and comprehensive in explaining the processes that humans embarked on to exploit the energy available in nature. Cottrell theorized that energy quality and energy surplus were important factors as both influenced how much work could be done by socio-economic systems through subsidizing the productivity of labor and the discovery and development of more energy. Cottrell (1955) concluded that societies preferred energy resources and technologies that would generate the most energy surplus, and that the economic development depended on the continuous flow of energy surplus.
Next in line is Hubbert (1949), a geologist who immersed himself in the collection of empirical data for the biophysical analysis of mostly nonrenewable energy. He developed the pioneering ‘Hubbert Curves’ predicting the future availability of fossil fuels (e.g. 1971, 1980). Hubbert (1956) initiated the discussion on peak oil by forecasting a peak of domestic oil production for the lower-48 states in 1970. While a peak did in fact occur in 1970, and production dropped essentially every year until 2007, this oil production was surpassed in 2018 due to new technologies such as hydro-fracking that can exploit diffuse petroleum deposits. Fracked oil too inevitably will encounter a production peak (Hughes, 2013; Heinberg, 2014). Hubbert's (1972, 1974) and Eugene Ayres' (1949, 1956) work added empirical biophysical analysis that showed clearly the ephemeral nature of the age of fossil energy, and how its discovery, production, consumption and eventual depletion were too essential for economics to continue to ignore.
These biophysical critiques of economic growth came to a head during the birth of the U.S. environmental movement of the 1960s and early 1970s amidst growing concerns about the inability of neoclassical economics to take seriously its biophysical embeddedness (Boulding, 1966; Daly, 1968; Ayres and Kneese, 1969). Other important publications of that time included high profile publications on population growth (Ehrlich, 1968; Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971) and limits to growth (Meadows et al., 1972). The oil and economic crises of the 1970s and the rise of nuclear energy led a new wave of natural and social scientists to advance theories about the biophysical foundation of the economy that they thought were necessary to address environmental problems (e.g. Odum, 1971; Pimentel et al., 1973; Cook, 1976; Ayres, 1978). These years proved foundational to the development of ecological economics as a transdisciplinary alternative to the economic sub-disciplines of natural resource and environmental economics (Erickson, 1999), and were an exciting supplement to the graduate training (under Howard Odum) of the second author.
2.2 From biophysical economics to ecological economics
Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen and his student Herman Daly are considered two of the most influential economists in the development of both biophysical and ecological economics for their work on developing comprehensive understandings of the thermodynamic foundation of economics. In The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971), Georgescu-Roegen provides a robust biophysical critique of neoclassical economics by asserting that the economic process is in essence about a qualitative change in energy and matter dictated by the laws of thermodynamics. Georgescu-Roegen believed that the most significant output of the economic process was human well-being. Herman Daly took Georgescu-Roegen's critique to another level by developing Steady-State Economics (1977) as an alternative model that could bring the throughput of the economy within levels that the biophysical world could sustain.
Systems ecologists also contributed to these foundations, including most prominently the work of the Odum brothers on ecosystem science and energetics. In his seminal work, Environment, Power and Society, Howard Odum (1971, 2007) applied his systems ecology background on energy flows in nature to analyze the interrelatedness of social and natural systems. Odum built on the work of Lotka to develop the maximum power principle to theorize that biological and cultural evolution could be explained by the tradeoffs of rate and efficiency in which ecosystems and economies obtained and converted energy. Ultimately, for Odum (1977), all economic value could be traced back to an energy resource in accordance to the laws of thermodynamics.
Odum's students Robert Costanza, John Day, Charles Hall, and others built on his theories to further the understanding of the biophysical foundation of economies. For example, Costanza (1980, 1981; Costanza and Herendeen, 1984), analyzed the relationship between energy and the dollar value of goods and services of the U.S. economy to develop the embodied energy theory of economic value, arguing that the value of any good or service can be traced back to the quantity of energy directly and indirectly used in its production. Costanza also played a critical role in developing the theory and practice of ecological economics, and more controversially, in promoting the valuation of ecosystem services for which he would become known in EE (Costanza et al., 1997, 2014).
Systems ecologist Charles Hall, like his mentor Odum, also turned his attention to economics, which he found to be inconsistent with the basic natural sciences (e.g. Cleveland et al., 1984; Hall et al., 2001). From earlier analyses of net energy by Cottrell, Odum and others, Hall (1972) explicitly coined the term energy return on energy invested (EROEI or EROI) concept while studying the energy cost and gains of migrating fish. The EROI concept would become instrumental in early BPE analyses of fossil fuels (Hall et al., 1979; Hall and Cleveland, 1981; Hall et al., 1981; Cleveland et al., 1984). Hall worked with his students Cleveland and Kaufmann, to develop the influential Energy and Resource Quality: The Ecology of the Economic Process (Hall et al., 1986). This early BPE book built on the work of many of the aforementioned thinkers to comprehensively integrate and apply fundamental concepts of energy and thermodynamics to the economic process, and was a precursor to the most recent compilation in Energy and the Wealth of Nations: An Introduction to Biophysical Economics (Hall and Klitgaard, 2018).
In parallel efforts, Ann-Mari Jansson (1984) organized the Wallenberg's symposia in Sweden on integrating economy and ecology drawing largely from a biophysical foundation. Martinez-Alier (1987) also argued for the biophysical foundations to socio-economic processes in Ecological Economics: Energy, Environment and Society, including an overview of the history of biophysical economic thought from 1865 to 1940. Similarly, he argued that economics cannot be studied without understanding the energy flows that power the economy. In 1987, Martinez-Alier hosted a conference in Barcelona that would result in the establishment of the field of EE in 1989 with the publication of its journal (see Røpke, 2004, 2005 for more on the history of EE).
2.3 The renaissance of biophysical economics
Many have criticized ecological economics' embrace of an uncritical methodological pluralism, which paradoxically allowed some of the very monistic approaches from neoclassical economics that it was critical of to dominate the field, forestalling its paradigm shift vision of becoming an alternative to conventional economics (Gowdy and Erickson, 2005; Spash, 2012; Anderson and M'Gonigle, 2012; Plumecocq, 2014; Erickson, 2015; Nadeau, 2015).
As a result, many who worked on founding EE considered it necessary to develop their own meetings and Journal for examining the energy and material flows foundation of the socio-economic system. A core focus of BPE is tied to ongoing debates of resource scarcity. As the price of oil fell during the 1980s many thought that the economic system of supply and demand had indeed resolved the issues of oil supply that had taken on such apparent importance during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. The intense activity of distinctly biophysical economics characterized by the early 1980s faded, and remained low, although many believed that the issues were still relevant. In 1998, new interest emerged with the publication of “The End of Cheap Oil” in Scientific American (Campbell and Laherrère, 1998). In 2005, these issues found a home with the publication of a monthly Blog on “The Oil Drum: Discussions about Energy and our Future”. Indeed, at that point there were many indications that conventional oil would soon peak and there was a great deal of activity associated with international and various national groups on peak oil which helped to reinvigorate the discussion and importance of BPE.
As EE became more and more known for work on monetary valuation of ecosystem services, BPE has experienced a renaissance of sorts taking up the original vision, at least as we see it, of EE. Thus academics and practitioners who were more interested in the failure of conventional economics to represent accurately real economic systems than in using it to evaluate natural processes in the same old monetary terms turned increasingly to BPE. Their growing interest in the role of energy in the economy has been influenced by the lack of biophysical awareness that continues to hinder conventional economics. A growing discontent among economics students about the failure of economics courses and curriculum to reflect interrelated socio-economic and environmental crises have also inspired biophysical economists to focus their attention on formulating and strengthening the biophysical critique (Galbraith, 2001; Hall et al., 2001; Raveaud et al., 2003; Hall and Klitgaard, 2006). Since 2008, biophysical economists have organized annual conferences, and in 2016 the International Society for Biophysical Economics was established together with the Journal Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality. Those meetings and that Journal continue to generate and publish many excellent papers on all kinds of BPE issues.
This professional formalization of BPE has included a focus on developing and applying frameworks for performing biophysical analyses of socio-economic systems (e.g., Hall et al., 2000; Tharakan et al., 2001; Hall, 2006; Leclerc and Hall, 2007). The aim of much of this work is to address the shortcomings of development economics – which according to many critics has failed to address issues of environmental, social and economic sustainability (Norgaard, 1994; Stiglitz, 2003; Escobar, 2011) – and provide important additions to the backlash against globalization and neoliberal polices. In particular, the economic crisis of 2008 brought more attention to the shaky moral and biophysical foundation of neoclassical economics (Brown and Ulgiati, 2011). This led to more interest in biophysical economic analyses to understand the impact that resources such as fossil fuels have on economic growth, inequality, and financial crises (Tverberg, 2012). Biophysical analyses performed after the economic crisis showed evidence that fluctuations in the supply and prices of fossil energy had a role in prolonging the economic slowdown (Murphy and Hall, 2011a).
Studies of EROI, have been very much a part of the renaissance of biophysical economics, especially in Europe and China where depletion of oil and gas are much more pertinent issues than in the United States (for now). In 2011, a special issue of 21 articles in the Journal Sustainability on “New Studies in EROI,” furthered cemented the importance of biophysical analyses to understand the nexus between energy and economic process (Hall and Hansen, 2011). Younger researchers entering the field have developed new measurements of EROI. For example, Court and Fizaine (2017) have derived the energy cost of generating all of the energy a society uses from its monetary costs, for which there are good records going back centuries. Celi et al. (2018) derived estimates from CO2 released (which were required for environmental accounting) and concluded that these were not too different from the values reported in the literature. A formal comparison of EROI values derived from these very different approaches would seem to be a useful endeavor. Many analysts believe EROI is a critical tool for understanding the future of civilization.
The frontier of BPE today includes a wide range of other topics as well. For example, Hall and Ramírez-Pascualli (2013) explore how vital fossil fuels are for the development of modern socio-economic systems. Feng et al. (2013) provide one of the first biophysical analyses of fossil fuels in China, and forecast future trends in energy supply and demand for the world's second largest economy. In Spain's Photovoltaic Revolution: The Energy Return on Investment (2013), the authors of this paper worked with Pedro Prieto to perform one of the first large-scale biophysical analysis of solar energy to comprehensively assess the EROI of solar power when all costs are computed, and to understand the implications of subsides via feed-in-tariff polices for the overall economic crisis of Spain. In America's Most Sustainable Cities and Regions: Surviving the 21st Century Megatrends, Day and Hall (2016) provide a comprehensive biophysical analysis of how the urban and rural regions of the United States will cope with the threat of climate change depending on the situation regarding access to energy, and the probability of environmental impacts. In Energy, Complexity and Wealth Maximization, Ayres (2016) gives a comprehensive survey of energy in wealth creation, and emphasizes how all evolutionary processes have always depended on physical laws. Palmer and Floyd (2017) undertake a comprehensive analysis of EROI of photovoltaic systems and their increased needs for backup as they become a larger share of our economy. Dittmar (2017) undertakes a comprehensive analysis of oil futures by region and provides a much less rosy perspective than official sources such as EIA. Tverberg (2019) sees peak oil use coming not only from geological limitations but also from the resulting price increases and the impacts on the poor. Herendeen (2019) calls for analyzing the spatial impacts of “renewability” and the biophysical implications of net zero energy plans in cities such as Burlington, Vermont which have already achieved 100% renewable electricity coverage. Hall and Balogh (2019) consider the biophysical requirements of our urban centers in their comprehensive textbook on Urban Ecology.