From a distance, Sudan’s ongoing conflict appears like a straightforward violent confrontation between two major armed factions: the Sudanese armed forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, RSF. That narrative has appealed especially to international policymakers seeking a quick resolution to a complicated war. But to see Sudan’s crisis through this simplistic lens is not only deceptive, but misunderstands entirely its depth and danger.
In truth, neither the SAF nor the RSF deserves legitimacy or support. Both sides have committed grave atrocities, with the RSF in particular credibly accused of war crimes and horrific violence against civilians, including genocide. The RSF’s brutality has led some outside observers to instinctively embrace the SAF as a lesser of two evils and Sudan’s best hope for unity.
Yet beneath these headline-grabbing horrors lies an additional layer of complexity: The SAF-led coalition itself is neither unified nor capable of stabilizing the country. Instead, it is a shaky alliance woven together loosely from militias, tribal groups, Islamist factions and political opportunists, one that is fundamentally driven by convenience rather than conviction and ambition rather than unity. Far from holding Sudan together, it is accelerating its fragmentation.
