My latest analysis on the PLA's aggression against Taiwan has just been published in 's .
Less Politics, More Military: The Outlook for China’s 2025 Military Incursions into Taiwan’s Airspace and Waters
My argument is that experts should not only analyze the strategic or political reasons behind the PLA's activities toward Taiwan, but also place more emphasis on the military factors. Military considerations will play an increasingly important role in future PLA activities.
Many thanks to and John Dotson at for their thorough editing advice.
airuniversity.af.edu/Office-of-Spon
Abstract:
(1) China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s airspace and waters in early 2025 mark a shift from politically triggered responses to a sustained military presence.
(2) Despite the absence of major political flashpoints, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has intensified its air and naval operations, setting record highs in median-line crossings and warship activity. Joint combat readiness patrols have expanded in both frequency and scope, incorporating long-range missions and drone flights encircling Taiwan.
(3) Even during the traditionally subdued Lunar New Year period, Beijing escalated maneuvers, dispelling the notion that cross-Strait tensions are solely driven by political catalysts.
(4) This sustained military presence reflects an evolving doctrine that prioritizes operational dominance and training over diplomatic signaling. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense data reveal a deliberate pattern of increased activity, underscoring Beijing’s goal of enhancing the PLA’s warfighting capability.
(5) Analysts and policymakers must recalibrate their assessments, focusing not on political rhetoric but on the PLA’s expanding operational footprint and long-term ambitions.
