ASML: Shares Could Get Way Cheaper

Summary

• I believe the post earnings selloff was an overreaction to tariff uncertainty, and I anticipate further volatility with sector-specific semiconductor tariffs due next week.
• That said, I estimate a realistic 10% tariff on US imports will be imposed and fully passed on to customers, limiting ASML’s margin hit.
• I expect high‑NA EUV adoption to lift margins by 2027–28. Mass production of NXE:5200 tools remains several years away.
• I reiterate my hold rating, as the current tariff drama outweighs fundamentals. I will reconsider my rating after the 90-day pause on tariffs.