Grok Conversation

Want to deep dive into New Zealand's resource minerals industry?Chatham Rock Phosphates looks promising but don't shy away from potential opportunities such as R&D/regional develolment influx c/o Shane Jones; but also activity/acquisition risk.Documents for reference: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51d24098e4b0d519d0c065f5/t/6493de61a050616239022108/1687412323499/CRP_SeabedMining_SelectCommittee_Submission.pdfhttps://www.nzx.com/instruments/CRPhttp://rockphosphate.co.nz/news/2018/9/10/usgs-marine-phosphorites-as-potential-resources-for-heavy-rare-earth-elements-and-yttriumhttps://www.rockphosphate.co.nz/
  • The request is to deep dive into New Zealand's resource minerals industry, focusing on Chatham Rock Phosphates.
  • I'm also considering other opportunities like R&D or regional development related to Shane Jones.
  • I'm thinking about starting with a web search for "New Zealand resource minerals industry" to get an overview.
  • Let's check the company's website and NZX page for more details on Chatham Rock Phosphates.
  • I'm planning to look into Shane Jones' role in regional development next.
  • Hmm, there's also a need to consider activity or acquisition risks for the company.
  • I'm considering looking at the provided PDF first, as it's likely relevant to the user's interest.
  • I'll browse the company's website to get an overview of what they do.
Browsing rockphosphate.co.nz for "provide an overview of Chatham Rock Phosphates and its main projects"
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates aims to supply phosphate for sustainable agriculture, focusing on the Chatham Rise project.
  • Their project is valued at $472M with 33M tonnes of resources over 500 km², within an 820 km² mining area.
Searching for "New Zealand resource minerals industry overview"
www.azomining.com
www.nzpam.govt.nz
www.gns.cri.nz
teara.govt.nz
www.environmentguide.org.nz
  • New Zealand has diverse mineral resources, such as coal, gold, silver, ironsand, and phosphate NZ Petroleum and Minerals.
  • There are around 1,000 mineral exploration permits, with over 20 for large-scale coal, gold, and aggregate mining NZ Petroleum and Minerals.
  • Seabed mining is contentious in New Zealand, with protests against operations like Trans-Tasman Resources in South Taranaki Bight Mining in New Zealand.
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates focuses on seabed mining for phosphates on the Chatham Rise, which may face similar challenges.
Browsing rockphosphate.co.nz for "details of the Chatham Rise project, including resource estimates, permit status, and any recent developments"
  • The Chatham Rise project is 450 km east of Christchurch, at 400 m water depth on the Chatham Rise Environmental Impact Report.
  • Its permit area is 820 sq km, with a best-sampled area of 380 sq km having 25 million tonnes of phosphate.
Browsing nzx.com for "current stock price, market cap, and any recent announcements"
  • The market cap is $9.2M, much lower than the $472M project value from a 2016 report.
Browsing static1.squarespace.com for "key points from Chatham Rock Phosphates' submission to the Select Committee on seabed mining"
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates was established in 2004, holding a mining permit since 2013 for 820 sq km on the Chatham Rise Safer Phosphates.
Searching for "Shane Jones New Zealand regional development"
www.beehive.govt.nz
www.nzfirst.nz
www.beehive.govt.nz
www.parliament.nz
en.wikipedia.org
  • Shane Jones is a key figure in New Zealand politics, serving as Minister for Resources and Regional Development.
  • He's previously managed the $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund, boosting regional economies from 2017 to 2020.
  • Under his leadership, there might be more support for mining, including seabed projects like Chatham Rock's.
  • Environmental opposition could still pose challenges, though, given the contentious nature of seabed mining.
Searching for "Chatham Rock Phosphates news 2023 2024"
www.littlegatepublishing.com
www.rockphosphate.co.nz
www.rockphosphate.co.nz
www.rockphosphate.co.nz
www.nzx.com
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates has expanded beyond the Chatham Rise, acquiring projects in Australia and French Polynesia.
  • The Korella phosphate mine in Queensland, Australia, is fully permitted and was expected to generate cash flows starting in 2022, though some info might be outdated.
  • The company is also extracting rare earth elements from their phosphate deposits, adding to their portfolio.
  • With phosphate prices at 10-year highs, their projects look more economically viable right now.
  • The Korella North mine in Australia is set to start production in 2024, potentially bringing near-term cash flow.
  • The Makatea project in French Polynesia is also planned for 2024, which could boost revenue while waiting for other projects.
Browsing rockphosphate.co.nz for "latest news and updates from 2023 and 2024"
  • Hmm, that didn't work. Maybe the page requires JavaScript or something.
Browsing x.com for "Chatham Rock Phosphates"
  • OK, that didn't yield any results. Maybe there are no recent posts about the company on X.
Browsing nzx.com for "latest announcements from 2023 and 2024"
  • All announcements on the NZX page are dated 2025, which aligns with today, April 16, 2025.
Browsing nzx.com for "list of recent announcements"
  • Recent announcements include a private placement closure on March 24, 2025.
Browsing nzx.com for "details of the proposed sale of Korella phosphate projects"
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates is proposing to sell its Korella phosphate projects in Australia to the Marshall Group for AU$4.1 million in cash, plus royalties.
  • The sale includes mining leases and exploration permits for Korella North and Korella South.
Browsing nzx.com for "update on the proposed sale of Korella phosphate projects"
  • The due diligence period for the Korella sale has been extended to June 30, 2025, from March 31, 2025.
  • This means the sale is still pending, and it's unclear if it'll complete.
Browsing nzx.com for "details of the private placement of units"
  • Chatham Rock closed a private placement on March 21, 2025, issuing 1,599,152 units at CA$0.07 each.
  • They raised CA$111,940, with each unit including a share and a warrant exercisable at CAD $0.20 for twelve months.
  • The funds will support permitting for the Avenir Makatea project and reapplying for Marine Consent on Chatham Rise.
  • They're using the Fast Track process, which could speed things up and reduce costs.
  • Their market cap is low, and they're raising small amounts, which might show early stages or financial constraints.
  • Still, diversifying into other projects and potential government support could mean upside.
  • Shane Jones' role might offer opportunities through government initiatives or funding.
  • The Fast Track Approvals Bill could expedite their permitting process, cutting time and costs.
  • Chatham Rock's Chatham Rise project holds 23.4 to 35 million tonnes of phosphate, valued over $10 billion in situ.
  • They're aiming to start production in 2027, pending regulatory approvals, which shows long-term potential.
  • The company has diversified into projects in Australia and French Polynesia, beyond the Chatham Rise.
  • I'm finding info on their rare earth exploration, which could add value. Let's check the USGS report for more details.
29 web pages
Key Points
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates focuses on phosphate mining, with a major project on New Zealand's Chatham Rise and additional projects in Australia and French Polynesia.
  • The company aims to supply low-cadmium phosphate for sustainable agriculture, potentially reducing carbon emissions compared to imports.
  • Regulatory hurdles have delayed the Chatham Rise project, but recent government support under Minister Shane Jones may ease approvals.
  • Opportunities include government initiatives for regional development and rare earth extraction, though environmental concerns remain controversial.
  • Risks involve regulatory delays, environmental opposition, and uncertainties around project sales and financing.
Overview
Chatham Rock Phosphates is a key player in New Zealand's resource minerals industry, particularly in phosphate mining, which is vital for agriculture. The company holds a mining permit for the Chatham Rise, located 450 km east of Christchurch, with significant phosphate resources estimated at 23.4 to 35 million tonnes, valued over $10 billion in situ. They also have projects in Australia (Korella) and French Polynesia (Makatea), diversifying their operations.
Opportunities and Risks
The current government, led by Minister Shane Jones, seems supportive of mining, potentially speeding up approvals through initiatives like the Fast Track Approvals Bill. This could benefit regional development and provide funding opportunities. However, environmental concerns, especially around seabed mining, are debated, with potential impacts on marine life and fishing yields being contentious. The company faces risks from regulatory delays, opposition from environmental groups, and uncertainties in selling their Australian assets, currently proposed for AU$4.1 million to the Marshall Group, with due diligence extended to June 2025.
Financial and Strategic Moves
Recent financial moves include a private placement in March 2025, raising CA$111,940 to fund permitting for the Makatea project and reapply for Chatham Rise consents. The low market cap of about $9.2 million suggests market caution, possibly due to these risks, but high phosphate prices at 10-year highs could boost viability.
Survey Note: Deep Dive into New Zealand's Resource Minerals Industry, Focusing on Chatham Rock Phosphates
New Zealand's resource minerals industry is a significant economic sector, encompassing a diverse range of minerals such as coal, gold, silver, ironsand, phosphate, limestone, and more. The industry contributes to jobs, infrastructure, royalties, and GDP, with approximately 1,000 mineral exploration and mining permits across the country, including over 20 for larger-scale operations extracting coal, gold, and aggregates. Mining has a long history, dating back to pre-European times with Maori mining argillite, and peaked in gold production in 1905, with current major operations at Waihi and Macraes. The industry also includes extensive coal and lignite resources in regions like Waikato and Southland.
Within this context, Chatham Rock Phosphates Limited, established in 2004 and based in Wellington, is a notable player focused on supplying direct application phosphate for the agricultural sector, emphasizing sustainable farming practices. The company, with over 2,000 shareholders, majority New Zealanders, holds a mining permit since December 2013 for an 820 sq km area on the Chatham Rise, 450 km east of Christchurch, at 400 m water depth. This project is estimated to contain 23.4 to 35 million tonnes of rock phosphate, with an in-situ value exceeding $10 billion, and adjacent rare earths potentially adding greater value.
Project Details and Economic Potential
The Chatham Rise project aims to provide a 100-year supply for the New Zealand market, reducing reliance on imports, currently at 800,000 tonnes annually from Morocco, partly Western Sahara. The company plans to start production in 2027, extracting 1.5 million tonnes per annum over 15 years, with projected economic benefits including $2 billion in income tax, $790 million in royalties, and $143 million in port charges, with annual net profit after tax at $341 million. Export and domestic sales are estimated at 1,110,000 tonnes export and 390,000 tonnes domestic, generating total gross revenue of $712,273,016 NZD, with operating costs detailed as follows:
Cost Category
Amount (NZD)
Contract Mining
$164,665,469
Port Charges
$9,523,810
Environmental Monitoring
$4,761,905
Admin/Overheads
$4,761,905
ML Work Programme
$2,000,000
The company has paid $1.45 million in permit fees since 2013, but the project remains stalled due to regulatory tensions between the Crown Minerals Act 1991 (economic focus) and the EEZ Act 2012/RMA 1991 (conservation focus), as noted in their submission to the Select Committee on seabed mining in June 2023.
Environmental Considerations
Chatham Rock Phosphates claims environmental benefits, including a 90% lower carbon footprint compared to imports, saving 76,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, equivalent to removing 19,000 petrol vehicles. They assert 80-90% less runoff, improving soil health with low-cadmium phosphate (2 ppm vs. >60 ppm in major exporters, below EU limits of 60 ppm, soon 20 ppm). Mining operations are planned for 30 sq km per year, totaling 450 sq km over the project life (0.1% of Chatham Rise), with dredging for 90 days annually in 3-day cycles every 12 days. Environmental impact reports, supported by over 30 technical studies and reviewed by international experts like Deltares (Netherlands) and HR Wallingford (UK), suggest minimal impact on marine mammals, sea birds, and primary food chain productivity, with no significant effect on fishing yields or spawning grounds, as determined in the 2014 EPA hearing.
However, seabed mining remains controversial, with potential risks including shipwrecks, though deemed unlikely due to deep waters and 450 km offshore location, and no chemical pollution due to a closed system. The company consulted Ngāti Mutunga O Wharekauri AHC (Chatham Islands), reaching an accord in April 2019, with potential investment and 15% options if consent is granted, aiming to meet environmental, economic, social, and cultural objectives.
Diversification and Recent Developments
Beyond Chatham Rise, Chatham Rock Phosphates has diversified, acquiring the Avenir Makatea project in French Polynesia, planned for 250,000 tpa production starting in 2024, and the Korella phosphate projects in Queensland, Australia. The Korella North mine, with confirmed resources of 600,000 tonnes indicated and 2.1 million tonnes inferred, was expected to commence production in Q4 2024, but recent announcements indicate a proposed sale to the Marshall Group for AU$4.1 million cash plus royalties (AU$10 per tonne for the first 0.19 million tonnes, total AU$6 million, and AU$1 per tonne thereafter until March 2040), with due diligence extended to June 2025. This sale, announced on January 22, 2025, and updated on February 25, 2025, is subject to conditions including successful due diligence and TSXV approval, reflecting potential strategic shifts.
Financially, the company closed a private placement on March 21, 2025, issuing 1,599,152 units at CA$0.07 each, raising CA$111,940, with funds allocated for permitting Avenir Makatea, initiating Fast Track reapplication for Chatham Rise Marine Consent, and general working capital. Their market capitalization stands at approximately $9.2 million, with a current stock price of $0.0840 NZD, suggesting market caution despite the high value of their resources, possibly due to regulatory and environmental risks.
Opportunities and Political Context
Opportunities for Chatham Rock Phosphates are enhanced by the current political climate, with Shane Jones, Minister for Resources, Regional Development, and Oceans & Fisheries, advocating for mining to boost national and regional prosperity. Jones, previously overseeing the $3 billion Provincial Growth Fund (2017-2020), now leads the $1.2 billion Regional Infrastructure Fund and supports the Fast Track Approvals Bill, potentially expediting permits. This aligns with the company's strategy, as seen in their use of Fast Track for reapplying Chatham Rise consents. Additionally, rare earth extraction, with Pacific Rare Earths Limited established to quantify and develop these resources, offers strategic value given global demand for critical minerals.
Risks and Challenges
Despite opportunities, risks are significant. Regulatory delays, with the Chatham Rise project stalled since 2013, pose challenges, though recent government support may mitigate this. Environmental opposition, given seabed mining's controversy, could delay or derail projects, with protests noted against similar operations like Trans-Tasman Resources in South Taranaki Bight. Activity risks include operational feasibility, with technical challenges in seabed mining, and acquisition risks, such as the uncertain sale of Korella projects, impacting cash flow. The company's low market cap and small capital raises indicate financial constraints, with phosphate prices at 10-year highs offering both opportunity and pressure to deliver.
Broader Industry Context
New Zealand's resource minerals industry, as outlined by New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals and GNS Science, includes extensive resources like coal, gold, and ironsand, with seabed mining emerging as a frontier. The industry's contribution to GDP, valued at $1,142 million in 2004 excluding gas, underscores its economic importance, but environmental and cultural considerations, especially for Maori, add complexity. Chatham Rock Phosphates' focus on low-cadmium, organic phosphate aligns with global trends toward sustainable agriculture, potentially positioning them as a leader, though navigating regulatory and social landscapes remains critical.
In conclusion, Chatham Rock Phosphates offers a compelling case within New Zealand's resource minerals industry, with significant potential in phosphate and rare earths, supported by favorable political shifts, but tempered by regulatory, environmental, and operational risks. Their strategic diversification and recent financial maneuvers suggest resilience, yet the path forward requires careful navigation of stakeholder interests and market dynamics.
Key Citations
Yeah but can you forecast with a bull, normal, and bear case/scenario of what the impact of Shane Jones delegation to the Chathams today (https://twitter.com/mangonui08/status/1912326357453013196) might yield for this company and it's investors?Check these for good measure:https://www.growregions.govt.nz/new-funding/regional-infrastructure-fundhttps://tewaihanga.govt.nz/news-events/updated-approach-for-new-zealand-pppshttps://www.russellmcveagh.com/media/olmdahjd/lexology-in-depth-public-private-partnerships-public-private-partnerships_-new-zealand.pdfhttps://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/guide/public-private-partnerships-blueprint-future-transactionshttps://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-launches-refreshed-public-private-partnership-frameworkhttps://nationalinfrastructure.govt.nz/public-private-partnerships-ppp/You may want to consider long-term trends from here too: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/releases
  • The request is for a forecast with bull, normal, and bear case scenarios. It's about Shane Jones' delegation to the Chathams and its impact on Chatham Rock Phosphates and investors.
  • I'm considering the links provided, including X posts and government websites. They mention funding and public-private partnerships, which could be relevant.
  • Shane Jones is New Zealand's Minister for Resources, Regional Development, and Oceans & Fisheries. He's known for supporting mining and regional initiatives.
  • The Chathams likely mean the Chatham Islands, near Chatham Rock Phosphates' project area. His visit might promote resource extraction or development there.
  • I'm thinking this could affect investor confidence, depending on outcomes. Let's check the X post for more details, given it's from today.
  • Since it's April 16, 2025, and a future date, I need to assume the delegation is happening. I'll use web search to find relevant updates.
  • Currently looking for news on Shane Jones' visit to the Chatham Islands. It's April 16, 2025, so there might be recent announcements.
  • Exploring topics around his regional development initiatives. Maybe that'll give clues about the delegation's purpose.
  • I'm checking government websites now, like the Regional Infrastructure Fund. They might shed light on funding or partnerships related to the visit.
  • These links cover regional funding and public-private partnerships. Shane Jones' visit could involve announcing support for projects like Chatham Rock Phosphates.
  • I'm thinking announcements might include fast-tracking approvals or funding. That could boost the company, depending on the details.
Searching for "Shane Jones visit to Chatham Islands April 2025"
www.nzherald.co.nz
insidegovernment.co.nz
www.nzherald.co.nz
www.nzherald.co.nz
www.nzherald.co.nz
  • Just found interesting results from the search. Shane Jones is leading a delegation for a regional summit on the Chatham Islands today.
  • The summit aims to promote the Regional Infrastructure Fund and discuss projects in energy, fishing, tourism, and alternative land use.
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates has a mining project on the Chatham Rise, near the Chatham Islands. Their operations might benefit from infrastructure funding or development on the islands.
  • Perhaps the company could apply for funding, like for port facilities needed for mining. That could tie into the summit's goals, given the focus on regional projects.
  • The Regional Infrastructure Fund is a $1.2 billion initiative for regional projects. It could support Chatham Rock Phosphates if they meet the criteria, such as infrastructure needs.
  • I'm wondering if the summit will highlight mining opportunities. That might influence investor sentiment, depending on the outcomes.
Browsing growregions.govt.nz for "criteria for funding, eligible projects"
  • The Regional Infrastructure Fund offers $1.2 billion over three years for regional projects, mainly loans and equity investments (Eligibility).
  • Eligible projects must benefit regional businesses, organizations, and communities, boosting growth and productivity.
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates might apply for RIF funding if their mining project needs infrastructure, like port facilities. It's not free money, though; it's loans or equity investments.
  • The company is also reapplying for consents through the Fast Track process, supported by the government. That could speed things up, alongside potential RIF funding.
  • There is a lot here, so let's think about bull, normal, and bear cases for the delegation's impact.
  • I'm fleshing out what might happen at the summit, like local businesses presenting projects for RIF funding.
  • The 2020 $40 million package for the Chatham Islands focused on infrastructure and aquaculture, not mining. Still, it shows government interest in regional development.
  • Now, with the 2025 visit focusing on the broader Regional Infrastructure Fund, mining-related infrastructure might be eligible for funding.
  • Mining projects could be eligible for RIF funding if they need infrastructure like ports or roads. This might include Chatham Rock Phosphates' operations.
  • In the bull case, the company might secure a big loan from RIF for infrastructure. That'd lower their costs and speed up the project.
  • In the normal case, maybe they receive partial funding or have to compete with other projects, leading to a moderate impact.
  • In the bear case, perhaps their application is rejected, or they don't apply, or there are other issues that prevent them from benefiting from the fund.
  • Environmental groups might oppose seabed mining, leading to scrutiny in the bear case. That could delay approvals, despite some local support from Ngāti Mutunga O Wharekauri AHC.
  • In the bull case, the government might offer assurances or regulatory changes. That could help overcome opposition and boost the project.
  • In the bull case, Shane Jones might announce support for Chatham Rock Phosphates. This could include a big RIF loan or equity for infrastructure, boosting their project.
  • The normal case might see the company applying for RIF funding. They'd get some support, but not as much, affecting their plans moderately.
  • In the bear case, the company might not secure RIF funding due to competition or ineligibility. This could lead to delays and increased costs for their project.
  • Public-private partnerships might be discussed, but in the bear case, no agreements are made. That'd leave the company to fund infrastructure alone.
  • I'm checking Beehive releases for recent announcements. Maybe they'll show trends in Shane Jones' support for mining projects.
  • Let's see if there are updates from April 2025 about resource extraction. That could clarify the delegation's focus.
Searching posts by
@mangonui08
Big crowd, partly imported from the mainland, for the Chatham Islands Regional Summit. An early morning flight on a Hercules, thanks to the RNZAF and here we are. So many exciting opportunities for this slice of Kiwi paradise
Govt directs Health NZ to stop saying ‘pregnant people’ newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/
BREAKING: The Reserve Bank's operational funding is being slashed by 25 percent. This comes after staff numbers doubled under Labour. We're restoring the Bank's focus to fighting inflation.
Three years ago I was belittled and censured for saying its pregnant 'WOMAN' not pregnant people! Well done Minister Costello-by acknowledging biological reality you are ensuring the rights and wellbeing of women, ensuring health messaging remains clear, and grounded in truth.
Defining “women” and standing up for women is not a priority for Chris Hipkins. We knew that the moment he awkwardly couldn’t define what a woman is 😬
  • Shane Jones' X post confirms a big crowd at the Chatham Islands Regional Summit. He traveled there on a Hercules, thanks to the RNZAF, and is excited about opportunities.
  • The post doesn't specify mining, but mentions "exciting opportunities" for the region. That could include projects like Chatham Rock Phosphates, given the context.
Searching for "Chatham Islands Regional Summit April 2025 announcements"
insidegovernment.co.nz
business.scoop.co.nz
www.miragenews.com
www.chathamhouse.org
www.nzherald.co.nz
  • Most articles from April 15, 2025, announce the summit, but there aren't specific updates from today, April 16.
  • Hmm, that's interesting, maybe I can look for live updates or social media posts about the summit.
Browsing x.com for "Chatham Islands summit"
Big crowd, partly imported from the mainland, for the Chatham Islands Regional Summit. An early morning flight on a Hercules, thanks to the RNZAF and here we are. So many exciting opportunities for this slice of Kiwi paradise
  • I've noticed the latest X post is a repeat. Let's try searching for other posts or replies to get more insights.
Searching posts by
@mangonui08
for "within_time:1d"
Big crowd, partly imported from the mainland, for the Chatham Islands Regional Summit. An early morning flight on a Hercules, thanks to the RNZAF and here we are. So many exciting opportunities for this slice of Kiwi paradise
  • It seems there's only one post within the last day.
Browsing x.com for "Shane Jones Chatham Islands"
When you thought it was going to be a Youth 4 Christ concert but instead it turns out to be Shane Jones declaring War on Woke in the Chatham Islands
  • Hmm, that's not very helpful.
  • Wait, perhaps there are more posts.
  • Chatham Rock Phosphates has a low market cap of about $9.2 million. They recently raised CA$111,940, which isn't much.
  • Their recent funding could help with initial capital expenditure. Alternatively, if it's equity, the government might take a stake in the project.
  • I'm thinking about how RIF funding, mainly loans and equity, could affect their valuation. Let's explore that next.
  • The immediate impact might be on investor sentiment rather than actual cash flow. Funding could take months to a year to receive, given the RIF process.
  • In the bull case, Shane Jones announces support for port facilities benefiting mining. That could boost Chatham Rock Phosphates' stock price, maybe doubling it.
  • In the bull case, a $30 million loan could build necessary infrastructure. That'd accelerate the project, with production possibly starting in 2026 instead of 2027.
  • The normal case sees the summit focusing on general development. Chatham Rock Phosphates applies for funding and secures a $10 million loan, helping with part of their costs.
  • Environmental opposition could increase public awareness and create regulatory hurdles. That might delay the project to 2028 or later in the bear case.
  • The company might not apply for RIF funding if terms are unfavorable. This could lead to a stock price drop as investors worry about viability.
  • The company reached an accord with Ngāti Mutunga O Wharekauri AHC, which might mitigate some opposition. This could make the normal case more plausible, given government support for resource extraction.
  • Given the current focus on regional development, the normal case seems like the base scenario. The bull case could happen with specific support, while the bear case might occur with unexpected setbacks.
  • Fast-tracking of marine consents for resource projects could boost the bull case. That'd reduce regulatory risks and speed up Chatham Rock Phosphates' timeline.
  • Securing a substantial RIF loan, like $30 million, would be transformative. It could fund infrastructure, leading to a significant stock price increase.
  • Investors should monitor news and updates from the company and government. This'll help assess the situation accurately after the summit.
  • The forecast outlines bull, normal, and bear cases based on potential outcomes. Each scenario considers government support, funding, and market reactions.
  • Normal case involves securing a moderate $10 million loan after standard processes. Marine consents proceed without special acceleration, starting production in 2027.
  • Bear case sees emphasis on environmental protection, with increased opposition to seabed mining. This might lead to funding challenges and delays, pushing production to 2028 or later.