JPMorgan Model Shows Recession Fear in Markets Spiking Up to 79%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. says recession fears in stocks acutely tied to America’s economy have spiked to nearly 80%, while credit investors remain sanguine even as funding stress threatens to build.

The small-cap focused Russell 2000, which has been battered in the recent selloff, is now pricing in a 79% chance of an economic downturn, according to JPMorgan’s dashboard of market-based recession indicators. Other asset classes are also sounding alarms: the S&P 500 is pricing in a 62% chance of an economic downturn, while base metals show a 68% chance and five-year Treasuries indicate a 54% chance. By contrast, recession odds in the investment-grade credit market are at just 25% — though that’s still up from zero in November.