The Coca Codo Sinclair Hydroelectric Plant in Ecuador, built nine years ago by the Chinese company SinoHydro and financed by the Export-Import Bank of China, is in danger of collapse due to deficiencies in its infrastructure design and errors in geological understanding, Bloomberg reported.
The project has been marred in controversies before operations even began, with construction defects, cost overruns, and allegations of corruption, turning the Coca Codo Sinclair Hydroelectric Plant into a time bomb.
Without energy and in debt
“In its eagerness to gain a foothold in Latin America, China is carrying out large strategic projects such as hydroelectric dams, port terminals, and roads,” Luis Somoza, an Argentine expert in international relations and security issues, told Diálogo. “But the low-quality construction in their projects can paralyze key infrastructure and burden nations with even more costs in the years to come as they try to remedy the problems caused by the mistakes of Chinese engineers.”
In an opinion piece for Argentine news site Infobae, Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. War Army College Strategic Studies Institute, addresses China’s advances in the South American country in infrastructure, financial cooperation, politics, and security, highlighting the Coca Codo Sinclair, and the considerable debt that Ecuador has accumulated, deriving in great part from China’s failed projects.
The Coca Codo Sinclair’s location is among the biggest problems of the dam, in addition to its shoddy construction and poor-quality materials. The $3-billion hydroelectric plant is at risk of collapsing into a sinkhole, which could worsen the country’s energy crisis, which has been crippled by power rationing, Bloomberg reported.
Staggered blackouts
According to Ecuadorian daily Primicias, between January and June 2024, the hydroelectric plant has only been able to generate 42 percent of its capacity, caused the country to experience 19 blackouts of more than eight hours, “due to failures in the Coca Codo Sinclair spillway,” which allow for passage of surplus water when the reservoir is full.
“The infrastructure was built with an installed capacity of 1500 Megawatts (MW), but technical and hydrological studies indicated from the outset that, due to river flow limitations, that is, because there is not enough water in the location chosen for the hydroelectric plant, only 975 MW could be produced,” Somoza said. “However, in 2024 it only produced 630 MW.”
On the brink of collapse
Among the main problems are the more than 17,000 cracks in the power plant’s eight turbines. These defects, warned the Ecuadorian Comptroller’s Office, threaten to destroy the powerhouse itself, which is the heart of the hydroelectric plant, Primicias reported.
“When it was inaugurated in 2016, it was predicted that Ecuador was going to export energy on a large scale. But the plan did not materialize, because Coca Codo Sinclair is a poorly designed and oversized hydroelectric plant,” Somoza said.
Alexandra Almeida, president of Ecuadorian nongovernmental organization Acción Ecológica, pointed out that two studies by the National Polytechnic School of Ecuador, predating planning for the dam, warned that the site was not suitable for the construction of large-scale works due to its geological composition, Ecuadorian newspaper El Mercurio reported.
Four years after the dam began operations in 2016, a natural lava dam that supported the 150-meter San Rafael Waterfall collapsed, causing landslides and eroding the riverbed leading to the plant’s water intake facility.
Scientists and engineers consulted by Bloomberg agreed that planners should have considered the geological fragile waterfall. “They underestimated the sediment. They never did studies of the San Rafael Waterfall,” said Emilio Cobo, an expert in freshwater ecosystems who worked as an advisor to Ecuador’s Ministry of the Environment.
Expert opinion
In 2024, representatives of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and scientists from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) traveled to Quito to develop effective solutions to stop the advance of regressive erosion that threaten the dam.
USACE personnel made their first technical visit to the hydroelectric plant back in 2021 and have since then worked with Ecuador’s Power Corporation (CELEC), at Ecuador’s request, toward a solution to mitigate the river’s regressive erosion and protect the infrastructure.
According to Ecuadorian daily El Comercio, during a meeting between Ecuadorian authorities and members of USACE, U.S. experts said that, in order to protect this infrastructure, a series of specific works and actions to contain the erosion must be implemented.
“It is a geologically unstable site. It is also at the foot of the active volcano El Reventador; so, it’s also a seismic zone. There were warnings that moving on with the project could have disastrous effects on the population and the environment,” Almeida said. “But the government and pressure from the Chinese company were stronger.”
“China’s aggressive expansion of its energy involvement in the region raises questions for recipient nations, including the possibility of excessive debt, corruption, environmental damage, labor issues, and resentment from local manufacturers, who are often excluded from the provision of goods and services for billion-dollar projects,” Somoza concluded.
