Goldman has pumped copper and is now turning. A key signal that the top is near.
The US looks set to announce copper import tariffs in the coming weeks, according to apress report.
This would shorten the timeline for tariffs, which we were expecting between September and November.
Bang on…
Copper/iron ore bulls ignore the fact that China’s population has gone into decline already and will be for about the next 100 years unless they start cloning people and grow them in incubators. Otherwise, their population is set to decline to around 500-600m by 2100 or according to some projections, even as low as 300-400m.
The fact is that they have more houses than people currently. A population decline means they don’t “ever” have to build new houses again. Population decline will accelerate later this century. It will happen first slowly, and then accelerate.
Same in Japan. Population forecast to halve by 2100.
The only place to result in more demand is India, but even their birth rate has dropped to about 2.0 and will lead to a decline later this century.
Only place where the population is absolutely booming, is Africa. If this will translate to meaningful economic demand remains to be seen. More likely Africans will colonise the rest of the world.
All this creates investment complexities. Has the world gone ex-growth and how to deal with this? It may not be too obvious now, but will become more so in the next 10-20 years(except in Australia where the population will keep on booming FOREVER!!)
Things against currency. This is monetary. Gold is only going up.
Not saying I disagree based on the vibe, but how do you price gold?