The United States and Israel have increased pressure on the people of Gaza in their pursuit of ethnically cleansing the Strip. The renewal of Israel’s full-scale assault on the civilian population of Gaza is particularly devastating after the weeks of lower scale Israeli operations, during which Gazans returned to their destroyed villages and cities in the north and began to dig their lives out of the rubble.
As it becomes clearer that the American and Israeli plan is one of perpetual war, including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iran, the efforts of the surrounding Arab states to avert a situation where millions of Palestinians are forced out of their homes and out of Palestine at gunpoint are becoming ever more desperate.
During the misnamed “ceasefire,” Egypt led several Arab states in putting together a plan to rebuild Gaza without ethnically cleansing it. That’s not a small feat. Gaza had been made nearly uninhabitable by Israel’s siege long before October 2023, and the last 17 months have made it an apocalyptic wasteland. Rebuilding it without transferring the people out is an exceedingly difficult proposition.
Yet Egypt’s plan was feasible, which is why neither the United States nor Israel have engaged with it. Instead, they have moved forward with actions aimed at driving the Palestinians out of Gaza.
The adamance of the Israelis and Americans have caused Arab states to scramble to find some other solution. The Israeli government has made it clear that the remaining hostages in Gaza are nothing more than bargaining chips and propaganda tools in their eyes. They are determined to reduce the population of Gaza as much as possible and will stuff those that remain into a tiny pocket of the Strip while they use the land as they see fit.
Israel is proceeding with the full backing of the Trump administration, and it is that backing that Arab states continue to perceive as the only hope of changing the dynamics on the ground. But the Arab unity around this idea—unity which is indispensable if there is to be any hope of success—is not absolute. In fact, the United Arab Emirates is breaking from that consensus and actively working to thwart the Egyptian reconstruction plan.
UAE opposition to Egypt’s plan
Back in February, while Israel’s slaughter in Gaza, though still active, was in a temporary lull, discussions were heating up about what would happen in Gaza after Israel’s operations there ended. Though it was largely part of the smokescreen maintaining the illusion that the three-stage ceasefire plan was still valid, the discussions were given extra weight by U.S. President Donald Trump’s expression of his desire to “own” Gaza and create a “Riviera on the Mediterranean” there. It would be a tourist trap that, crucially, would be devoid of any Palestinians.
There was an almost full consensus in the Arab response, which echoed much of the world, rejecting the proposed ethnic cleansing of Gaza. But one voice stood outside that consensus, and it was a particularly influential one. The United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba told reporters, “I don’t see an alternative to what’s being proposed,” referring not to the Egyptian proposal but to Trump’s vision.
When the Arab League voted to support the Arab League plan, the UAE was tactically smart enough not to break the unanimity in support. But it has been lobbying the Trump administration against the plan
When the Arab League voted to support the plan, the UAE was tactically smart enough not to break the unanimity in support. But it has been lobbying the Trump administration against the plan, and it seems to be effective.
Trump has threatened to diminish the annual military aid Egypt gets from the United States as part of the Camp David Accords that led to the peace agreement with Israel. Egypt’s economy remains unstable and, while the aid from the U.S. is no longer as significant a part of the budget as it was, the fact that Egypt gets that aid from the U.S. every year helps it secure loans and brings other financial benefits. It is not a death blow to Egypt if they lose the aid, but it would be a significant hit to an already reeling economy.
Still, Egypt has remained steadfast in its refusal to agree to any displacement of Palestinians out of Gaza. They adamantly denied a report in the Lebanese news outlet Al-Akhbar that stated that Cairo planned to relocate half a million people from Gaza into the northern Sinai, and there is no other indication that they are planning any such move.
UAE’s plans in Palestine
The UAE is investing a lot of effort into its future influence in a potential Palestinian entity, whether that be a state or some other form. It has maintained its relationship with Israel throughout the genocide in Gaza, and no Israeli crime has even raised any speculation outside the UAE of the alliance they formed through the Abraham Accords being threatened in even the most minor way.
The Emiratis also have nearly as much antipathy for Hamas as Israel does and matches Egypt in its hatred for the Muslim Brotherhood. They envision a Palestine where they have enormous influence, and the Fatah party offers a path to that future.
Exiled Fatah leader Mohammed Dahlan is the figure that the UAE would most want to see running the PA. Dahlan, who lives in Abu Dhabi, was expelled from Fatah in the wake of myriad accusations of corruption, embezzlement, and even that he had participated in the murder of Yasser Arafat.
The UAE is investing a lot of effort into its future influence in Palestine and believes Mohammed Dahlan would be ideal for their ambitions.
Although Dahlan has claimed to be finished with politics, many speculate that he would be more than willing to assume a leadership role in a post-Abbas, post-Hamas Palestine. The UAE believes he would be ideal for their ambitions of massive influence in Palestine, which would combine with their close ties to both Israel and the U.S. to greatly increase their already considerable regional stature.
Ironically, they are competing with Egypt for that kind of influential role, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, too, has a close relationship with Dahlan, who has been viewed with relative favor in both Israel and the United States in the past. It’s unclear exactly how the current Israeli and American administrations view him, though it’s likely that both at least see him in a better light than they do the current Palestinian leadership.
Since both the UAE and Egypt have full diplomatic relations with Israel and a relationship with Washington, they are both vying to be the key players in Gaza’s future redevelopment and governing structure.
Both the UAE and Egypt are vying to be the key players in Gaza’s future redevelopment and governing structure which is why the UAE is working to thwart Egypt’s plan.
The UAE clearly has the upper hand, though. Unlike Egypt, which is economically weak and needs American support, the Emiratis are rolling in oil wealth, making them a partner the U.S., especially under Donald Trump, wants to cultivate, rather than a dependent state. Egypt does have other things to offer the U.S., like its greater standing culturally in the Arab and Muslim world, but these are dwarfed by the UAE’s wealth.
For these reasons, the UAE is working to thwart Egypt’s plan for Gaza.
Egypt and Jordan scramble
While the UAE pursues its own agenda, the ongoing Israeli slaughter in Gaza may eventually force the issue of Gazans being pressed to leave. The incredible steadfastness of Palestinians notwithstanding, there is only so long parents can watch their children starve or be bombed or gunned down by Israeli troops. If, as seems likely, the world is prepared to allow Israel to continue its rampage indefinitely—and the prospect of a new ceasefire is now much dimmer, so there is really no end in sight for this genocide—some significant percentage of people will try to flee.
Egypt, recognizing this reality, presented a new ceasefire plan, one which would see Hamas release five Israeli hostages per week while Israel would, simultaneously, gradually pull back from Gaza until, in the end, all of the hostages were freed and Israel was out of Gaza, as envisioned in Phase II of the now-dead American ceasefire plan. The new Egyptian proposal would be a compliment to the reconstruction plan, not a replacement.
The United States was satisfied with the plan, but has done nothing to press Israel into agreeing to it. This is consistent with the Trump administration’s desire to free hostages, and gather the positive headlines that it generates. But it’s no longer a priority for Trump, as it was as he was just coming back into office. If Israel wants to do it, Trump will agree, but he will do nothing to push it. In practice, this means it has no hope of coming about.
Like Egypt, Jordan also faces threats from Trump, and it too has desperately tried to find alternatives. One report, denied by the Jordanian foreign minister, claimed that Jordan had floated the idea of taking in 3,000 members of Hamas along with a timeline for disarmament of all Palestinian armed groups and the installation of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in exchange for Israel ending the genocide.
One report claims Jordan floated the idea of taking in 3,000 members of Hamas along with a timeline for disarmament of all Palestinian armed groups. Jordan’s reluctance to address it extensively hints toward its authenticity.
Despite the foreign minister’s denial, the Jordanian government has declined to further address the report. It’s more likely than not that the proposal was genuine. Jordan’s reluctance to address it extensively hints toward its authenticity; they’d be more forceful and adamant in their denial if it was false, and it’s the sort of desperate proposal they might make to avert a mass expulsion from Gaza.
It also makes some sense for Jordan, which desperately wants to see an end to the slaughter and would very much like to see the PA in charge of Gaza, uniting it with the West Bank once again. That would reopen the possibility, at least in some people’s minds, of a two-state solution. Disarming the non-PA groups would also solidify the unpopular PA’s control, diminishing the internal threats. So it makes sense that Jordan would float this idea.
The Egyptian plan seems less likely, though not at all impossible. It may have been real, or it may have been a story planted by another party. In either case, Egypt has the most to lose if Israel succeeds in driving large numbers of Gazans out. They need alternatives desperately, and the one they came up with has fallen on deaf ears in Jerusalem and Washington.
In any case, all of these actions are symptoms of the panic that must be gripping both Jordan and Egypt as they confront the reality that Israel is not open to any alternative to its war of genocide. The thin hope that the Trump administration will rein Israel in—something it has already proved it can do if it wants to—is all they can cling to.
