Alexander L. Vuving is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Vietnam is undergoing a profound transformation under General Secretary To Lam. More than just a policy overhaul, Lam's reforms represent a calculated effort to reshape both the country and the balance of power within the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV).
His agenda has a strong focus on modernization, but it is also deeply intertwined with his power struggle ahead of the 14th CPV Congress in 2026. By tying his personal political future to sweeping national change, Lam is making a high-stakes bet: If his vision succeeds, he will cement his legacy as Vietnam's most transformative leader in decades. If it fails, the consequences for both him and the country could be severe.
For three decades, the CPV has operated under the bon nguy co (four menaces) doctrine. The gravest dangers, identified in 1994, include "peaceful evolution" led by hostile forces, lagging behind in economic development, deviation from the socialist path and corruption.
Different leaders have emphasized different threats at different times. The CPV chiefs of the 1990s and 2000s -- Do Muoi, Le Kha Phieu, and Nong Duc Manh -- focused on the dangers of "peaceful evolution" and deviation from socialism. Under Nguyen Phu Trong, CPV chief from 2011 until 2024, corruption became the paramount enemy, and his relentless anti-graft drive reshaped the country's political landscape.
Now, To Lam is rewriting the script. He sees economic stagnation as Vietnam's greatest peril and is setting his sights on rapid modernization and escaping the middle-income trap.
Lam's grand strategy diverges sharply from those of his predecessors. The grand strategies of Muoi, Phieu, Manh, and Trong were all threat-driven. Whereas the former three were preoccupied with fighting "peaceful evolution" and deviation from the socialist path, Trong believed that corruption could bring down the regime. Lam, by contrast, is ambition-driven. His vision for Vietnam is not one of survival but of resurgence.
People shop ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Jan. 21, 2025. © Reuters Ten days after taking office as the CPV general secretary, Lam proclaimed a new era, effectively ending the era of doi moi. He has branded this new era as Vietnam's vuon minh (rise), emphasizing national rejuvenation rather than crisis management. In an unprecedented move, he has linked Vietnam's centenary goals for 2030 and 2045 to double-digit economic growth. This not only raises the stakes for Vietnam's economic policies but also makes it politically difficult for his rivals to challenge his leadership without challenging the country's long-term aspirations.
This shift is not just about policy, it is also about power. The conventional wisdom of Vietnamese politics has long held that stability, gradual reform and ideological continuity are paramount. Lam is dismantling this playbook. His restructuring of the party-state bureaucracy is the largest in Vietnam's post-doi moi history. His emphasis on technological upgrading and innovation signals a break from previous economic models. In narrowing the gap between rhetoric and action, Lam is demonstrating a commitment to modernization that surpasses any previous CPV chief. But it is also a power move: By redefining the country's trajectory, he is consolidating his own authority.
The crucial question is whether this wave of change is a genuine long-term transformation or merely political theater in the run-up to the 14th CPV Congress. Vietnam's history is littered with ambitious economic plans that failed to materialize. Former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung also dreamed of high growth and poured vast resources into state-owned conglomerates, only to oversee a financial crisis that derailed his vision before it could take off.
Vietnam's economic trajectory is also shaped by global factors beyond Lam's control. For years, China's dominance of global supply chains has relegated Vietnam to low-value-added manufacturing. The restructuring of these supply chains amid U.S.-China tensions presents opportunities for Vietnam to climb the value chain, but these shifts are unpredictable. No matter how determined Lam is, external conditions will play a decisive role in whether his reforms deliver the growth he envisions.
Nevertheless, Lam's reforms have raised expectations to an unprecedented level. The CPV's formal adoption of double-digit growth as a national objective means that future leaders will struggle to walk back these ambitions without undermining the party's legitimacy. If economic targets are not met, leaders will either have to find a way to justify falling short or risk political fallout. The safer political bet is to maintain these ambitions, even if they prove elusive. This means that whether or not Lam's reforms succeed, they will drive action. The nature of that action -- and its consequences -- remains to be seen.
To Lam is not a Doi Moi 2.0-style liberal reformer. He is a modernizer in the mold of authoritarian developmentalists like South Korea's Park Chung-hee. His reforms are real, and they will change Vietnam's state and economy in profound ways. But they are also a means of consolidating power.
Whether he ultimately succeeds or fails, one thing is clear: To Lam is remaking Vietnam, and the political landscape will never be the same again.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect the policy or position of DKI APCSS, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.
