The Federal Reserve Is Driving Blind
The only thing Powell and Co. know for sure is that policy uncertainty is sky high.
Questions abound.
Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images North AmericaThe Federal Reserve is driving blindfolded.
That’s my single most important takeaway from the central bank’s big policy announcement on Wednesday. On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet. The median Fed participant only subtly updated baseline economic projections for 2025 to show 2.7% PCE inflation (versus 2.5% in December’s outlook), 4.4% unemployment (compared with 4.3%), and 1.7% growth in gross domestic product (versus 2.1%). The projections suggested 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, unchanged from the previous estimate. But the most jarring development was the number of Fed board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents who reported heightened uncertainty around their outlooks for joblessness, inflation and GDP.
