Elliot Andrews, CFA

Since i came down to sunny Abu Dhabi in the dim and distant past - the promise of the great engagement between China and ME money has been great. Unfortunately it’s been more at the MOU stage or meetings and staged delegations. It’s only this year that I’ve seen some substantial funds flowing into China. Last month - I spoke to my investment advisor and asked for suggestions to go back into the market in q1 2025 - a little toe only but I think it’s now promising. Valuations are down, bottom is bad, capital is needed, central bank is moving towards a single reference rate and away from banking loan guidance, consumption will need to be boosted, some Chinese major sectors are head and shoulders above others like EV, advanced manufacturing, AI, security, renewable energy, water, bio pharmaceuticals etc. This, despite President Trumps fulminations, is a good investment case I think.

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ADGM: Powering Abu Dhabi’s Rise as the "Capital of Capital" Q3 2024 marks yet another groundbreaking chapter for Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), with achievements that resonate far beyond numbers. A 215% surge in Assets Under Management (AUM), 759 new business licenses, and global heavyweights like PGIM, Nuveen, a TIAA company, and Stonepeak joining the ecosystem—it’s clear that ADGM is not just growing; it’s redefining the financial landscape. 🚀 As someone deeply connected to the evolving dynamics of the region, I’ve seen firsthand how ADGM’s visionary leadership, regulatory strength, and strategic innovation have positioned it as the go-to hub for family offices, institutional investors, and global asset managers. It’s not just about what ADGM offers—it’s about how it connects people, ideas, and opportunities to create a ripple effect of prosperity. With initiatives like the “Path to Forward” and global roadshows, ADGM is taking Abu Dhabi to the world and bringing the world to Abu Dhabi. Its efforts are a testament to the UAE’s leadership vision: a future defined by collaboration, innovation, and sustainable growth. And now, with Abu Dhabi Finance Week (ADFW) on the horizon, the stage is set for ADGM to once again shine as the ultimate destination for financial leaders, innovators, and changemakers. ADGM isn’t just building a financial center; it’s shaping the future of finance. Whether you’re a family office exploring new strategies, an institutional investor seeking high-impact opportunities, or a visionary looking to collaborate, ADGM is the place where ambitions turn into action. Kudos to ADGM for its relentless pursuit of excellence and for putting Abu Dhabi firmly on the global financial map. This is just the beginning, and I’m excited to see what’s next. #adgm #capitalofcapital #adfw #abudhabi #leadership #finance #investmentmanagement #familyoffices #institutionalinvestors #sovereignwealthfunds #futureoffinance #bitcoin Source: https://lnkd.in/dZgQi-VD

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Can’t do anything about FDI. Not directly anyway but what we can do something about is FPI. Which will either invest locally or help build up the local financial sector which will then further attract more financing. Which should help FDI. That’s where the smart money goes, FPI. Apex Group Ltd did the ApexInvest event in Abu Dhabi late last year where we had 200 allocators in representing $4 trillion meeting 50 managers and having an awesome lineup of speakers. We next go to Riyadh. We have now received full Saudi regulatory permissions. Early days yet for Riyadh as we know so it ain’t going to be that big but remember this is about building relationships and that takes time. Supported by a great set of local firms, funds and allocators, we will be focussing on some serious sectors. Such as Islamic Sharia Asset Management - it’s one of my bugbears and I’m going to make a serious push to fix it. We need to substantially increase the number, type and size of Sharia Funds. Discretionary sharia investments are needed but not at a 95:1 ratio. We need the lower-cost, standardised Sharia funds to grow this sector. Then KSA is the regional home of sports - a sports/gaming/entertainment fund section - full of excitement glamour fun and games. Let’s see who we can get in there eh? Besides this infrastructure funds. D’oh! It’s Mecca for this sector. And some other sectors such as AI/DC, and healthcare. And then one more. KSA has had some noteworthy investments - it’s not big enough, it’s not fat and varied enough and it’s not consistent enough. I’m talking about the KSA -INDIA corridor. We need to have a consistent push to develop this. Indian funds will have amazing opportunities to invest in KSA and raise capital. KSA funds and families will have the same opportunity. And it needs a watering hole. And it’s going to be In ApexInvest KSA. This was one of those long-term ideas which have been brewing for years and it will take time but with the solid institutional heft from Apex - this should take off well. Connecting that awesome pool of capital with the awesome pool of opportunity in both directions :) Let us know (tagged below) if you as an allocator (family office, fund of fund, endowment, SWF...) or a manager want to chat. We want our clients to get seriously plugged into KSA. And would love to see you in Riyadh in February - please let me know if you’re around. Off to sunny Milan - the number of British Non-Doms who have settled in there is increasing sharply. Rental has doubled in the top end of the market and literally, they can’t find architects and construction workers to deal with the increase! Happy days. Yasmin Al Mostehy Colette Leong-Son Zafar Khan Christiane El Habre Naveed Zamir, FCCA Walid Hayeck Glyn Gibbs Mohit Gupta John Papesh Georges Archibald Renaud Oury #familyoffices #allocators #LP #capitalraise #capitalallocation

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Baosteel Doubles Investment in Saudi Venture to $1 Billion Investment and Economic: Benefits 1. Increased Investment: * The total investment in the project is now over USD 1 billion more than originally planned. * Baosteel will increase its investment to
USD 1 billion. * Aramco and PIF will raise their investments to USD 500 million each. 2. Economic Impact: * Job Creation: The establishment of a steel production plant will create direct and indirect employment opportunities. * Industrial Growth: Enhances the growth of the steel industry in Saudi Arabia, reducing dependency on imports and fostering self-sufficiency. * Diversification: Supports Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 by diversifying the economy away from oil and gas. * Increased Output: The plant's annual capacity of 2.5 million tons of direct reduced iron and 1.5 million tons of steel plate will meet the demand in MENA oil and gas, shipbuilding, and construction industries. Risk Assessment 1. Market Risks: * Demand Fluctuations: Global and regional demand for steel can be volatile, affecting the plant's profitability. * Price Volatility: Steel prices are subject to fluctuations, influenced by raw material costs, supply-demand dynamics, and global trade policies. 2. Operational Risks: * Project Delays: Delays in construction or operational ramp-up can increase costs and delay revenue generation. * Technical Challenges: Issues related to technology integration, plant maintenance, and achieving targeted production capacities. 3. Geopolitical Risks: * Regional Stability: Political instability in the MENA region could disrupt operations and supply chains. 4. Financial Risks: * Investment Recovery: Achieving a return on the significant capital investment is crucial. Prolonged low steel prices or demand could delay investment recovery. * Currency Fluctuations: Exchange rate variations could impact the cost structure and profitability, particularly if there are substantial international transactions. Financial Performance Indicators Analysis 1. Return on Investment (ROl): • Calculation of ROl will be crucial to assess the profitability of the venture.
This involves comparing the net profit generated by the plant to the total investment. 2. Net Present Value (NPV): • NPV analysis will help in understanding the value addition by the project over time, considering the time value of money. 3. Internal Rate of Return (IRR): • IRR will provide insights into the expected rate of return from the investment, helping to compare it with other potential investment opportunities. 4. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA): • EBITDA will be a key indicator of the plant's operational profitability, excluding the effects of financing and accounting decisions. 5. Debt-to-Equity Ratio: • This will help in assessing the financial leverage and stability of the J, indicating the proportion of debt used to finance the plant relative to shareholders' equity.

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Dubai is a magnet for High Net Worth Individuals. The short-sighted tax policy of formerly rich industrialised nations is leading to an exodus of capital and economic damage on an enormous scale. In the UAE, entrepreneurs and private investors find a liberal economic environment in which they and their families are welcome. A high level of security for their families, a very high standard of living, a wide range of international schools, a very well-functioning healthcare system and a forward-looking tax policy. All very good prerequisites for continuing to attract people from all over the world.

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Western fund managers are looking increasingly towards the UAE for new investment prospects. Why would they do this, especially given the money to be made in holding Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia or other such stocks? There are a number of factors contributing to this shift, not least of which is the 2007-esque nature of valuation ratios. Western equity markets, despite their high levels of liquidity and innovation, simply do not offer the kind of margin for safety that UAE securities do. I explain all of this in further depth and detail in my column for Gulf News Business today: https://lnkd.in/dNf5CKUj #business #economics #finance #capital #market #money #value #valuestocks #gcc #mena #bigtech #kingdollar #investment #investors #investmentbanking #venturecapital #uae #dubai #dfm #adx #emaar #salik #apple #microsoft #nvidia #abudhabi #crypto #currencies #cryptocurrency #recession #sp500 #growthstocks #worldeconomy #equity #usequities #dividend #growth #investmentadvisory #earning #banking #power #familyoffice #stockpicks #emergingmarket #financialmarkets #news #gulfnews #yield #ai #artificialintelligence #bluechip #realestate #price #middleeast #risk #margin #security #norway #gulfnews #news #gcp #globalcapitalpartners #sameerlakhani

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QIA earlier today announced that it is set to acquire a 10% stake in China Asset Management Co. (ChinaAMC), which ranks as China’s second-largest mutual fund company. QIA sees Japan as key market, it did double its investments in Japan since 2021. EB Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda, backed by billionaire Marcelo Claure, plans to seek 50% Saudi capital to launch a $600 million fund to support the South American country’s climate and energy sector. After BlackRock, Goldman Sachs regional HQ in Riyadh The UAE, one of the Middle East’s largest economies, agreed on Tuesday to forge deeper trade and business cooperation with Malaysia after the two countries’ non-oil trade hit $4.7bn in 2023, maintaining the record-setting levels achieved a year earlier https://lnkd.in/e93M5pfv

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A Dubai-based fund-of-funds focused on backing emerging venture investors, has raised $5 million of the $10 million target for its debut fund. Amkan Ventures is connecting family offices in the Gulf region and emerging U.S.-based VCs — two groups unlikely to otherwise meet. A fund led by Female GP Raida Daouk El Jisr decided to raise a fund after helping a number of family offices and other institutions vet and invest in American venture firms and tech startups as a consultant and building out another prior employer's portfolio. #fundraising #investment #GCC #USfunds #venturecapitalists #limitedpartners #generalpartners #Funds #LPs #GPs #VCs #emergingfunds #fundmangergs

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The Abu Dhabi investment company ADQ has successfully priced its second bond issuance, a $2 billion bond issue that will be listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). It follows ADQ’s debut debt capital market issuance in May last. The new issuance will diversify ADQ’s funding sources and contribute to 'strategic growth initiatives within the group'. Th other outcome will be to build out ADQ’s 'long duration credit curve for investors'. The second issue was oversubscribed 4.1 times. The dual-tranche offer includes a $1 billion 7-year bond that's due 2031 and a $1 billion 30-year bond due in 2054, with annual coupon rates of 4.375% and 5.250%. #business #adq #abudhabi https://lnkd.in/dkeuCB7u

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FAB Sukuk Company Prices $600 Million Five-Year Sukuk to List in London FAB Sukuk Company Limited has priced a $600 million five-year sukuk at a profit rate of 5.500%. The sukuk will be issued on 16 January and will be listed on the London Stock Exchange. This issuance is part of FAB Sukuk Company's $5 billion Trust Certificate Issuance Programme. What is a Sukuk? A sukuk is a sharia-compliant bond. It is a certificate that represents ownership in an underlying asset. The asset can be anything from a building to a piece of equipment. Sukuks are typically issued by Islamic financial institutions, but they can also be issued by governments and corporations. What is a Trust Certificate Issuance Programme? A trust certificate issuance programme is a framework that allows issuers to issue sukuks on a regular basis. Why is this Sukuk Important? This sukuk is important because it is a sign of the growing popularity of Islamic finance. It is also a sign of the confidence that investors have in FAB Sukuk Company. Sukuk Plc have a listed sukuk on the Vienna exchange. Our trust issuance programme enables eligible investors to participate in UK real estate private credit opportunities. #IslamicFinance #Sukuk #Finance #LondonStockExchange * https://lnkd.in/dN_6_vYQ

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State Council of China website published a report by China Daily on SuperBridge Summit Dubai 2024, during which President and CEO of Dubai Chamber of Commerce Mr. Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah commented: "Chinese companies have made significant economic contributions to the Middle East region's economy across a variety of sectors and are believed to continue to play an essential role in the region's future development. "Both markets emphasize building a knowledge-based economy and that key areas such as technology, renewable energy, logistics, healthcare and infrastructure are poised for steady growth and will serve as important areas for mutual development and cooperation. I am very glad to see the work we do at SuperBridge Council in collaboration with DWTC on SuperBridge Summit brings about substantial impact, and provide real-world, front-line insights to galvanize businesses to take actions to grasp opportunities, mater trends of our time, and prosper from collaborations. https://lnkd.in/g42Kcavd Mohammad Ali Rashed Lootah Dubai Chambers Dubai World Trade Centre SuperBridge Summit Dubai SuperBridge Council VS Partners

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I have been reading about the evolution of financial services ecosystem in the Gulf and made some fascinating discoveries 5 of the GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) ranked among the top 10 sovereign fund deployers in 2023, with UAE alone having 3 of the top 10 – Mubadala, ADIA and ADQ (refer image) One very important narrative caught my attention – The SWFs typically have two different styles of operations – pioneered mostly by two GCC neighbours i.e. Abu Dhabi’s SWFs i.e. Mubadala, ADIA and ADQ and Saudi Arabia’s PIF *** The Abu Dhabi Side Historically, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) was the Principal sovereign investor of UAE, since its early inception in 1976 In 1984, IPIC (JV between ADIA and ADNOC) was formed to pursue acquisitions overseas In 2002, Mubadala Development Company was formed to strike a balance between overseas and Emitrates investments In 2007, ADIA stripped off its domestic investments into ADIC and thus four very different SWFs co-existed for years until the consolidation of 2016 - 2017 In 2017, IPIC and Mubadala Development Company was merged to form Mubadala and subsequently ADIC was merged with Mubadala In 2018, ADQ emerged as another sovereign entity and had a spin-off Lunate in 2023 Despite the reorganizations, the overarching principle remained – different SWFs to cover all bases independently - theoretically, overlapping with each other, yet having different accountability and reporting lines Elsewhere in the Gulf region, Abu Dhabi’s approach is also followed by Dubai and by Bahrain *** The Saudi Side The second approach is the one seen in Saudi Arabia, in which the government consolidates all investments and strategic efforts, and its vision, into a single umbrella - the Public Investment Fund (PIF) PIF was born in 1971 and is the Gulf’s oldest SWF However, it was conceived as a development fund that would only support Saudi companies, while the central bank SAMA ran the country’s de-facto SWF with its portfolio of foreign holdings This changed in 2015, when PIF was transferred under the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA) In the past eight years, PIF has became one of the world’s most active (the most active in 2023) SWFs both at home and overseas, and a key enabler of the country’s Vision 2030 and transformation In 2017, Saudi Arabia set up a second fund, National Development Fund (NDF), that would support PIF’s push for Vision 2030, but with a much more domestic and low profile In this model, the govt. remains the main decision maker in investment management Elsewhere in the Gulf, the Saudi approach is followed by Qatar, Kuwait and Oman Quite fascinating to see two institutions achieving compelling results, yet following two very different models and forms of capital deployment structures! Source: globalswf #SWFs

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Saudi Arabia drew $65.1 billion in FDI in the three years following the pandemic, with FDI outflows reaching $73.1 billion, placing Saudi Arabia 16th globally for FDI outflows! KSA's significant legal, economic, and social reforms under the National Investment Strategy (NIS) and Vision 2030 have been instrumental in this success. Launched in 2021, the NIS aims to boost investment across various sectors, including manufacturing, renewable energy, transport, logistics, tourism, digital infrastructure, and healthcare. The strategy sets ambitious targets: increasing annual FDI flows to over $103 billion and domestic investment to more than $453 billion by 2030. In particular, 2023 saw a 55% increase in the value of international project finance deals, reaching $22 billion, and 19 such deals, marking a 90% growth from the previous year. Saudi Arabia's robust performance highlights its growing role as a key player in the global investment landscape. As the Kingdom continues to pursue its Vision 2030 goals, the future looks promising for both domestic and international investors. More information here: https://lnkd.in/d8vS6iAS #SaudiArabia #FDI #Vision2030 

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Press Release Liberte-Capital Secures Cat 3C License from DFSA, Expanding Investment Opportunities Dubai, UAE – 27 November 2024 – Liberte-Capital is pleased to announce that after more than four years of successful operations within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), the firm has been granted a Category 3C (Cat 3C) license by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA)). This new license allows Liberte-Capital to expand its investment offerings and collaborate with funds, financial institutions, family offices, and other accredited investors in co-investment opportunities. The Cat 3C license marks an exciting milestone in Liberte-Capital’s growth trajectory, enabling the firm to leverage its decades of international experience in private equity and real estate investments. With this expanded capability, Liberte-Capital is now positioned to transform its proprietary investment projects into collective fund structures, inviting like-minded organizations and individuals who share the firm's values, principles, and passion for successful investment strategies. “Our vision for growth has always been centered around a simple yet powerful equation: strong products, strong teams, and strong fundamentals,” said Nicholas Paillart, Managing Partner of Liberte-Capital. “By continuously fine-tuning our operational excellence and focusing on what we do best, we have been able to deliver exceptional results. We are confident that our future successes—alongside new partners—will be built on this same philosophy as we grow our investments in French real estate, Indian private equity, energy, and commodities.” The firm’s expansion comes at a time when global investment opportunities are rapidly evolving. With a renewed focus on scaling up and exploring larger, more diverse opportunities, Liberte-Capital is excited about the future and the potential to collaborate with strong, strategic partners to drive mutual success. About Liberte-Capital: Liberte-Capital is a leading investment firm with deep expertise in private equity, real estate, and alternative investments. With a proven track record of success across international markets, the firm is dedicated to creating value through strategic investments, operational excellence, and long-term partnerships. Headquartered in Dubai, Liberte-Capital is committed to delivering superior returns while upholding the highest standards of integrity and professionalism.

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Fed interest rate decision monthly show on CNBC Arabia with May Ben Khadra and Hussein Sayed, CFA, CMT and a report by Maisa Eid: 50bps!!! That is a massive cut. - The grand majority of economists (including myself) have gotten the size of the interest rate cut. 50bps is very high for a first cut. In fact, the Fed has started with a 50bps cut twice in the past and both were followed by massive crises - A 50bps cut AND signaling similar upcoming cuts signal that the Fed is worried about something serious, and as mentioned in previous posts, unemployment is now in the driver's seat, not inflation anymore - We put a probability of more than 50% of a stagflation. The reasons is that things have changed in the US compared to pre-pandemic, when the US was benefiting from cheap manufacturing coming from China AND China buying US Treasuries (a full circle). Both of these are not happening anymore, and the US is trying to compensate for that by opening doors wide open for immigration for cheap on-soil labor (good, bad, not for me to judge, but I wouldn't like it if it were my country) - Both Presidential candidates are in favor of massive Fed rate cuts, while deficit fiscal spending is at record high, which is a recipe for something bad, in addition to inflation - 1 year ago we recommended short maturity US Government bonds, namely the 2 year because the steepening of the curve, while the front-end getting crushed was inevitable. Another winning call is obviously gold Thank you Diab Rahmeh for having me again, always a pleasure. See you next month!

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Abu Dhabi’s $1 Trillion Fund Rejigs Strategy to Speed Up Deals - ADIA is now deploying cash faster in areas like private credit - It’s also tapping in-house team for data-driven investing Abu Dhabi’s $1 trillion wealth fund is embracing a more scientific approach to investing, leaning more on its own quant team to speed up decision-making as it seeks to bolster returns. In the first three quarters of the year, ADIA and Abu Dhabi’s two other main funds combined invested $36 billion broadly, according to data from Global SWF. #venturecapital #fundraising #investing Supercap Group Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)

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