Christian Democratic Union party leader Friedrich Merz celebrates with leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Markus Soeder after the exit poll results in Berlin, Germany, February 23, 2025. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
The AfD's stronghold has long been in the former eastern states, where it has performed well in state elections, but this time it far surpassed its showing in the 2021 election.
The map above shows the 2025 election results, and the one below shows the 2021 results.
(Video produced by Lisa Bernhard)
It's official: Friedrich Merz's conservatives won the German election.
But it could take weeks for the likely chancellor to weather through messy coalition talks and form a government -- particularly since Merz said he won't work with the party who came in second place.
The country's far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), saw a historic jump in support, winning 20.8% of the vote.
"Next time we'll come first," AfD party leader Alice Weidel vowed.
Merz faces a tall task of helping the country's ailing economy, with its society split over migration and security caught between a confrontational U.S. and an assertive Russia and China.
But he promised to help give Europe "real independence" from the U.S. and conditionally support Ukraine with longer-range Taurus missiles.
"The main thing is to create a government in Germany that is capable of acting as quickly as possible, with a good parliamentary majority," said Merz. "Because dear friends, the world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations."
Coalition talks could leave Olaf Scholz in a caretaker role for months.
Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats tumbled to their worst result in decades, with 16.5% of the vote share. Scholz accepted defeat.
This election saw the highest voter turnout since before German reunification in 1990, according to exit polls, with issues such as immigration, the rising cost of living and energy top of voters' minds.
We're wrapping up our live coverage for now, but you can read Reuters' German election roundup here.
Investors will be looking at:
"If there are long discussions or three parties involved, that would complicate things," said Simon Keller, equity research analyst at Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking.
EURO
The euro is expected to benefit from any increase in government spending that boosts the economic outlook.
"A grand coalition (CDU/CSU and SPD), alongside a two-thirds majority needed for the debt-brake reforms, would likely be euro-positive," Morgan Stanley said.
BONDS
A rise in fiscal spending could increase the supply of German government bonds, thereby lifting yields.
Citi analysts say peripheral bond markets such as Italy could also draw support if a CDU-led mainstream majority coalition emerges, as any steps to boost Germany's economy are viewed positively for the euro zone as a whole.
EQUITIES
The election could boost German economy-exposed stocks if corporate tax cuts and stronger growth follow.
While Germany's benchmark DAX index of often globally-focused stocks is near record highs, mid- and small-caps have lagged as companies more exposed to weak domestic growth underperform.
Read more here from the story by Samuel Indyk, Greta Rosen Fondahn and Stefano Rebaudo.
FILE PHOTO: Election campaign posters in Klanxbuell, Germany, February 7, 2025.REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer
Gelsenkirchen has been hard hit by Germany's economic stagnation and the signs of a downturn are visible everywhere.
It has the country's highest unemployment rate, helping fuel a dramatic rise in the popularity of the far-right AfD party, which won 24.7% of the vote in the city.
It is one of very few spots in the former west where the AfD is the most popular party.
While the city played a big part in Germany's post-war "economic miracle", the rot set in with the decline of coal and heavy industry in the 1960s. Its population tumbled from 390,000 then to just 260,000 now as the local economy cratered.
The city now has one of Germany's lowest levels of income per capita and highest rates of child poverty, according to official data.
Many residents no longer feel the economy is working for them and want change.
Germany's constitutional debt brake has prevented successive governments from making vital investments, ranging from public infrastructure to skills training, needed to overhaul Germany's ailing economic model, economists say.
The far-right AfD was the most popular party across almost the whole of the former East Germany, achieving as much as 47% of the vote in some constituencies and drawing a political map of Germany which effectively separated the former East and West, 35 years after reunification.
The AfD's stronghold has long been in the former eastern states, where it has performed well in state elections, but this time it far surpassed its showing in the 2021 election.
The map on the left shows the latest results in the 2025 elections with 274 out of 299 constituencies declared, and the right shows the overall 2021 election results.
Economic pessimism is rife in the eastern states, where many feel they have been left behind. Average incomes are less and unemployment is higher.
Another factor is the green policies that made Scholz's unpopular coalition government even less popular in the east.
Eastern Germany is more rural than the rest of the country with over 10% of its labour force active in agriculture and forestry compared with national average of 1.2% and the push for clean energy is seen as a threat to the farming sector.
The former East has also suffered large scale population loss in the last decades, compounding the sense of abandonment for those left behind.
While the population in western Germany grew 10% to 68 million between 1990 and 2022, it shrank by 15% in the east to 12.6 million, according to the federal statistics office.
Researchers also say that the electorate has less deeply-rooted loyalties to political parties, which has led to growth for the political extremes.
Friedrich Merz has questioned whether NATO would remain in its "current form" by June.
"I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump's remarks last week...it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe," Merz told German public broadcaster ARD.
Last week, the Trump administration shocked European allies by telling them they must take care of their own security and rely less on the United States, while announcing talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine without involving Europe.
Referring to a NATO summit scheduled for June, Merz said he was curious to see "whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form then or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly".
On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with NATO's mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.
He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the U.S. with regard to their nuclear umbrella, too, and advocated talks with Europe's nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.
CDU party leader Friedrich Merz poses for a selfie after the exit polls are announced, in Berlin, February 23, 2025. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch
Merz is set to become Germany's next chancellor but he heads into coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand.
While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second worst post-war result.
It remains uncertain whether he will need one or two partners to form a majority.
Lengthy coalition talks could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months.
That would delay urgently needed policies to revive the German economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.
It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe as it deals with a host of challenges such as Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
“We have eight weeks now until Easter, and I think that is enough time, enough maximum time in which to form a government ... If we have one partner it will be easier, if we need two partners it will be harder, but even in that case it will have to be successful, " Merz said during a post-exit poll roundtable with other leaders.
“The main thing is to create a government in Germany that is capable of acting as quickly as possible, with a good parliamentary majority. Because dear friends, the world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations."
THE END OF CHEAP ENERGY
Germany had become overdependent on Russian oil and gas imports over the years, and in 2022 energy prices spiked.
The last nuclear plant in Germany closed in 2023, limiting the options available as an alternative to Russian fuels.
The leap in prices made it difficult for German industry to remain competitive, particularly for energy-intensive activities.
THE END OF TRADE TIES
Germany strongly benefitted from exports to Asia’s largest economy and outsourcing to the labour-intensive economy, but China was moving up the quality ladder and becoming a fierce competitor.
There were also signs China’s strong growth of preceding years was beginning to slow, weighing on demand for German imports.
Germany also has an important trade surplus with the U.S., which reached a record level of 70 billion euros last year.
It could now be at risk if President Donald Trump implements his threatened tariffs.
Germany was fully focused on rescuing its ailing industry, instead of investing in the future. The country which had been at the forefront of industrial innovation for decades, struggled to adapt to the digital age.
The debt brake - a self-imposed fiscal rule that caps public borrowing - has limited Germany’s ability to invest in modernizing its economy. There was not only a lack of investment in innovation and technology, but also in public infrastructure.
All these factors spurred discontent among Germans, who are turning to populist parties for solutions.
Explore Maria Martinez, Dea Bankova, Anurag Rao and Prasanta Kumar Dutta’s interactive explainer for more on how Germany’s “sick 90s” and its golden years after shaped its economy today.
Merz in Berlin, Germany, February 23, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
By Pierre Briancon, a columnist for Breakingviews
Friedrich Merz will be the next chancellor of Germany. And he still can’t tell what his government program will be.
His conservative alliance received around 29% of the vote, but long months lie ahead before he can build the coalition he needs.
Based on exit polls, Merz has little chance to form government without the social democrats of Olaf Scholz’s SPD.
The question is whether he will need to bring a third party into his future government, which would complicate the negotiations.
Two players are hovering around the threshold of 5% of national vote that would allow them into Parliament - the liberals from the FDP and the leftist BSW.
If they make it, a majority of seats will be harder to achieve and Merz will have to invite either the Greens or the FDP.
With the SPD as his junior partner, Merz would have to compromise on his tax cuts pledges. He has proposed to slash levies on businesses from an overall 30% to 25%, and lower the burden for households.
The SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, have vowed to increase taxes on higher incomes. Were it to be part of the coalition, the FDP might insist on lower taxes – as it did when it governed with Scholz.
The party might also oppose any attempt to reform Germany’s infamous debt brake, which sets limits on government borrowing.
The coalition talks Merz will now lead may soon look like the electoral campaign redux. The sooner this ends, the better for Europe.
Read the full commentary here.
Reuters Breakingviews is the world's leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he had congratulated Friedrich Merz on his CDU conservatives' election victory.
"We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent," he said.
2009: MERKEL AND OBAMA FRIENDSHIP
Despite differences on how to tackle climate change and the economic crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Barack Obama quickly forged a close relationship that put Germany at the centre of U.S. foreign policy.
The friendship was tested, however, in the years to come. In 2011, Obama pushed Europe and Germany to spend more to tackle the euro zone crisis.
In 2013, reports alleged the U.S. spied on Merkel.
2015: 'INSEPARABLE ALLIES'
The two leaders were snapped in heated discussion at the G7, but Obama said there the two countries were “inseparable allies,” while Merkel declared the U.S. an “essential partner.”
2017: START OF TRUMP YEARS
Trump and Merkel held an awkward first meeting, in which Trump pushed Merkel on increasing NATO funding and joked about both being wiretapped by Obama. Both had warm words about the meeting and future relations afterward, however.
2022: BIDEN EMBRACES SCHOLZ
Despite being dubbed a "sulky liver sausage" by the Ukrainian ambassador, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz won public praise from President Joe Biden over cooperation countering Russia.
2025: TRUMP’S RETURN
Trump's Vice President JD Vance alarmed European allies with a speech in Munich and a meeting with the far-right AfD. Scholz said his behavior was inappropriate.
Reporting by Heather Timmons, Jeff Mason, Andreas Rinke and Andrea Shalal.
Merz spoke about relations with the United States during a televised roundtable with other party leaders following the exit poll.
He warned of indifference to Europe under the administration of President Donald Trump.
"I don't know how the American government will position itself in the next weeks and months towards the war in Ukraine," he said, adding that Russia and America appeared to be drawing closer to each other on the conflict without the participation of Ukraine or Europe.
Merz's "absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA step by step," he added.
Merz also criticised the "ultimately outrageous" comments flowing from Washington during the campaign, comparing them to hostile interventions from Russia.
FILE PHOTO: Bratwurst in political party colours in Rittersbach, Germany, February 10, 2025. REUTERS/Christine Uyanik
Each political party in Germany has a representative colour.
The previous government coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz was nicknamed the “traffic light” because was an alliance between the SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and the Greens (which unsurprisingly chose green as their colour).
Here are the colours that represent the main political parties:
FILE PHOTO: Dortmund, Germany, February 21, 2025. REUTERS/Jana Rodenbusch
What if two parties choose the same colour? That’s the case for the SPD and the Die Linke, also known as the left party. Die Linke has also adopted another colour, purple, which is often used in its campaign.
FILE PHOTO: Heidi Reichinnek in Berlin, Germany, February 21, 2025. REUTERS/Christian Mang
WHAT WILL THE NEXT COALITION GOVERNMENT BE CALLED?
Kiwi, Kenya and Germany are the nicknames of possible coalition governments.
Kiwi which is black and green in colour represents a coalition between the CDU and the Greens.
The flag of Kenya has the colours of black, red and green, so if the CDU, the SPD and the Greens work together, it would be a “Kenya” coalition government.
If Germany were to have a “Germany” coalition government, the CDU (black), the SPD (red) and the FDP (yellow) would need to form an alliance.
But according to exit polls, the FDP is unlikely to pass the 5% threshold to get back to parliament.
The leader of Germany's pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), Christian Lindner, said he will leave active politics.
"The German election brought defeat for the FDP, but hopefully a new start for Germany. This is what I fought for. Now I will leave active politics, with just one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intense and challenging years full of creation and debate."
The FDP look set to miss the 5% threshold needed to win parliamentary seats.
Linder served as finance minister during Olaf Scholz's awkward three-way coalition. The FDP effectively triggered the snap election by abandoning the coalition in a dispute over government spending and the budget.
METTE FREDERIKSEN, PRIME MINISTER OF DENMARK:
“Congratulations to Friedrich Merz on the election. In uncertain times we need a strong Europe and a strong Germany."
JONAS GAHR STØRE, PRIME MINISTER OF NORWAY:
"Germany is Norway’s most important partner in Europe. Common values unite us in challenging times. I look forward to further strengthening our cooperation."
MARK RUTTE, SECRETARY GENERAL OF NATO:
"Congrats to Friedrich Merz on today’s election victory in Germany. Looking forward to working with you in this crucial moment for our shared security. It’s vital that Europe step up on defence spending and your leadership will be key."
LUÍS MONTENEGRO, PRIME MINISTER OF PORTUGAL:
"Congratulations, Friedrich Merz, for the victory! I look forward to working closely with you, to deepen the bilateral cooperation between Portugal and Germany, as well as in our common challenges in the European Union, NATO and the United Nations."
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Friedrich Merz faces complex coalition negotiations after the far-right AfD surged to a historic second place in a fractured vote after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's unloved three-way alliance.
