Opinion | China could be the steady counterweight to Trump’s Pax Americana
Few seem able to resist Trump’s domestic and foreign policies, but China’s actions could offer a template for how to withstand the pressure
After returning to the White House last month, US President Donald Trump is not simply doing the same things he did during his first term or undoing the policies of his predecessor. He is setting out to remake the US and the world order.
Many American and European politicians who tout a “rules-based order” whenever they criticise China appear timid before Trump. His Western allies are afraid of incurring the wrath of the newly crowned emperor with a colossal economic and military machine at his disposal.
Whether one loves or hates him, Trump represents a phenomenon that cannot be ignored – the failure of liberal democracy and globalisation. His politics sometimes expose real problems but his demagoguery and neo-imperialism only make things worse.
At the global level, China seems to be the only country that can withstand American might and pressure. How China conducts itself will have an impact on Trump’s attempt to redesign the world.
More than four decades of reforms have transformed China’s hardware and software. A new generation of scientists, engineers and economists know the world much better than their predecessors. Having learned from the West, they are now at the cutting edge of innovation and technology.
China-bashing hawks accuse Chinese firms of stealing American technology. As a huge country keen on modernisation, China has certainly gained from a “late-developer advantage” and in turn provides lessons for others. However, its experience is no different from that of Japan or South Korea.
Meanwhile, the US benefited from the exodus of scientists from Germany during and after the second world war. More than 1,600 German scientists, engineers and technicians – some of whom were Nazis – were relocated to the US under Operation Paperclip.
Opinion | China will survive Trump’s trade war – it’s done it before
Tariffs have not only failed to curb China’s growth, they have also inadvertently helped the country’s domestic economic strategy
China did not back down. Instead, Beijing introduced tougher, more precise and diversified countermeasures. The fundamental reason is that after nearly eight years of trade conflict, China has grown more confident, strategic and resilient.
After Trump launched the trade war in 2018, Chinese exports to the US have faced tariffs of around 19 per cent. By now, the Chinese public is accustomed to trade disputes and an extra 10 per cent tariff hardly comes as a shock.
Looking at the long-term impact, the objectives Trump set out to achieve in 2018 have largely gone unmet.
According to the US Bureau of Industry and Security, US-China trade was worth around US$659.8 billion in 2018, and the US trade deficit was US$419.2 billion. Based on Office of the US Trade Representative figures, bilateral trade was estimated at US$582.4 billion in 2024, with Washington still recording a trade deficit in goods with Beijing, at US$295.4 billion.
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China to impose tariffs on some US products as Donald Trump’s 10% levies take effect
By 2023, though China remains the world’s top exporter, its overall market share in the US had dropped by 7.7 percentage points, according to the International Netherlands Group, underscoring the decreasing importance of the US market to China.
China’s exports to the US include electrical machinery, furniture, toys, plastics and textiles. These are highly competitive industries that are integral to the daily lives of American consumers.
Of greater concern is the composition of US exports in 2024. The country has increasingly shifted towards resource exports. Refined petroleum, crude oil and natural gas are among the US’ top exports.
While both countries export integrated circuits, China exported significantly more in 2022, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Meanwhile, China’s top exports include broadcasting equipment, office machine parts and computers.
Data from the US International Trade Commission shows the value increase in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports shot up 124-fold from US$295 million in 2018 to US$36.7 billion in 2023. The same year, the value of US EV exports was still below US$10 billion. It seems that the US, which sells natural resources for more than 15 per cent of its exports, according to Trading Economics, isn’t so competitive.
Trump’s tariffs have been presented as a part of a strategy to revive US manufacturing. In reality, they have weakened it while also driving up consumer prices and failing to achieve their goals. The president is talented at positioning himself as tough on China for electoral gain, but this is little more than political posturing.
His tariff strategy reflects a shift in the US from a global leader to a regional power embroiled in trade conflicts and economic instability. From this perspective, Trump’s policies are not making America great again. They are accelerating its decline.
