Playing Yesterday's Game: Are Ubisoft’s ($UBIFP) Busted Converts Overdone or Justified?
Assessing the Risk/Reward of a €2bn Gaming Empire
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Ubisoft’s management doesn’t get it.
While they’re sitting there thinking about how to squeeze every last penny out of their franchises, the gaming world has moved on. They’re playing yesterday’s game, literally AND figuratively.
Remember when Assassin’s Creed was groundbreaking? When Far Cry meant something? Now they’re just churning them out like Hollywood sequels nobody asked for. And we all know how that movie ends—just look at the theatrical business today.
The numbers don’t lie. Over €1 billion in net debt. BILLION! From just over €300 million a few years ago. And the stock? In the gutter. What’s management’s solution? More of the same! Another Assassin’s Creed, another delay, another promise that THIS time will be different.
But this isn’t about Assassin’s Creed. This is about understanding what people want.
Look at Fortnite. Look at what Epic did. They didn’t just make a game, they created a platform, a universe, a constant stream of content that keeps people coming back. They’re not selling a $70 box that sits on your shelf, they’re selling a ticket to an ever-evolving world.
Meanwhile, Ubisoft’s executives are still trying to figure out “Games-as-a-Service” like it’s 2018. They failed with Ghost Recon Breakpoint, they failed with Hyper Scape, they failed with XDefiant. You don’t get three strikes in gaming anymore. The audience moves on. Fast.
And now management is betting it all on the next Assassin’s Creed. But this isn’t 2015. They can’t just release a decent game and expect success. The competition isn’t just other AAA games anymore—it’s TikTok, it’s YouTube, it’s every other form of entertainment fighting for people’s time and attention.
Yet beneath the questionable management decisions and missed opportunities, there’s still some real value here. Strip away the recent failures and you’ll find they still have valuable assets underneath all the missteps. Their back catalog continues to generate real revenues. The digital transformation, while slow, has pushed digital sales to 84% with significantly better margins than physical copies. And let’s be clear about the IP—Assassin’s Creed alone has generated billions in revenue over the past decade.
This isn’t a story of a company with nothing left to sell. It’s a story of valuable assets trapped in an outdated business model. With Tencent involved and the Guillemot family exploring strategic options, 2025 might not just be about survival—it could be about transformation.
The question here isn’t whether Ubisoft’s franchises have value—they clearly do. The question is whether management will figure out how to unlock it before it’s too late.