(The original Chinese text was published on December 27, 2024.)

On December 27, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the revised nominal GDP for 2023, which amounts to 129.4 trillion yuan, up by approximately 3.4 trillion yuan compared to the preliminary estimate. This upward revision consists of two main components: (1) an increase of 2 trillion yuan in GDP based on the 5th national economic census data; (2) an increase of 1.34 trillion yuan in GDP by adjusting the calculation method for the value of owner-occupied housing services (the rental equivalent of owner-occupied housing) from a cost method to a rent method.

Our previous research pointed out that the cost-based calculation method for owner-occupied housing rent in China somewhat underestimated the rent and housing consumption. Instead, we used an opportunity cost method to estimate the market rental value of self-owed housing, leading to adjusted housing consumption expenditure, and, based on that, an adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Based on these studies, our understanding of the recent revision of nominal GDP by the NBS is as follows: (1) The adjustment in the calculation method is a significant optimization in GDP calculation, which helps to more reasonably assess the role and changes of household consumption in the economy. There is still room for further upward adjustment of nominal GDP. (2) The reform, in theory, also influences the CPI accounting. However, the specific impact depends on the details of the NBS’s revised calculation of owner-occupied housing rent. (3) The impact of this revision on the real GDP growth rate for previous years remains uncertain.