A Crypto Optimist’s Guide for 2025

Before I undertake the hard task of predicting where the crypto industry will go in 2025, let’s take a minute to recall where it has been. The bout of exuberance we are currently experiencing was preceded by three episodes of crypto summers followed by crypto winters — roughly three years of generally rising Bitcoin prices, and increasing capital flows and popular interest, followed by 14 months or so of sliding Bitcoin prices and serious questions about the future of crypto.

It’s tempting to assume this is the eternal pattern — in which case Bitcoin’s price might increase to around $500,000 in 2025, followed by a crash around the end of the year to a low around $100,000 in 2026 — but that misses the main point. The industry has made substantial progress. In 2014, many people thought Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would not survive, and that the underlying blockchains would never be more than a minor technology for niche applications. In 2018, most assumed crypto would not disappear, but that it would never deliver a social revolution comparable to the internet. In 2022, the question was whether the sector could integrate with existing regulation and financial markets or survive as an outlaw alternative similar to the dark web.