So, what’s up with Dereck Lively II?

After a rookie season that exceeded almost everyone’s expectations, there was plenty of buzz about what his sophomore campaign could bring. Yet, a couple of tweets from Mavs fans caught my attention recently—expressing some disappointment in his play so far.

Some pointed to the lack of a sophomore leap many expected after his strong and surprising rookie year. Others have thrown around the phrase “sophomore slump”. Perhaps the more valid question is whether we’re seeing sophomore stagnation instead?

If you look at Lively’s box score stats, his numbers this season look strikingly similar to his rookie year per-game averages —his minutes and points per game are identical to his rookie year.

When I created Lively's 2024-25 Player Card in the offseason, envisioning how his sophomore numbers might unfold was arguably the most exciting part of my offseason writing, even more so than analyzing the Mavericks’ roster additions.

Here’s what my projections looked like back in August, drawing comparisons to Jarrett Allen and Andrew Bynum at age 20 based on rookie year data:

The conservative choice would be the level Allen reached in his sophomore year (26 minutes, 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game). However, Lively has shown that his learning curve is much faster than your typical big man, so Bynum's second-year stat line of 29 minutes, 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game wouldn't shock me.

The minutes conundrum

The first place to look for context behind the numbers is his minutes per game, which are at the exact same level as last season. For example, the two players I used in my comparison saw their minutes increase significantly in their age-20 seasons—Allen went from 20 to 26 minutes per game, while Bynum jumped from 22 to 29.

To account for the minutes, I did a quick check of per-36-minute stats and compared Lively to similar player archetypes. As you can see, his sophomore numbers look solid: middle of the pack in scoring, and above average in field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, blocks and assists.

As always with numbers, there’s more context. Lively is playing on a very deep team where he’s the last, fifth option in the starting lineup. Dallas also has one of the best center backups in the league in Daniel Gafford, who does one thing better than Lively: finish around the rim.

Like in his rookie year, Lively has already missed several games due to various injuries, which is probably another reason the Mavericks are keeping his minutes in check. Here’s another takeaway from his 2024-25 Player Card emphasizing that the key for Lively isn’t necessarily more minutes, but continuous growth.

But stat lines are not the most important thing, and Gafford gives the Mavericks the luxury of not overtaxing Lively, who had several injuries in his rookie campaign. What will really matter, and what I would like to see, is continued progress in Lively's game.

Progress or stagnation? Diving into the advanced numbers

The Mavericks’ depth and abundance of good scoring options are certainly contributing factors to why Lively’s minutes and scoring numbers remain unchanged from last season. However, two of the comps I highlighted in my Player Cards—Joakim Noah and Lively’s mentor, Tyson Chandler—serve as a reminder that scoring totals aren’t the only measure of impact. Both players excelled not by dominating the box score, but through their agility, ability to switch, relentless drive, and communication skills—qualities essential for a defensive anchor. Their impact went far beyond individual stats, and this is how we should evaluate Lively.

So, let’s dig into some advanced numbers to see if there’s been any progress compared to his rookie campaign.

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