How America Lost Its Taste for the Middle

It’s been a rocky year for the type of restaurant that could have served as the setting for an awkward lunch scene in The Office: the places you might find at malls and suburban shopping developments, serving up burgers or giant bowls of pasta and sugary drinks.

The “casual dining” sector—the name the restaurant world gives the sit-down establishments in the middle cost tier of the dining market—has seen some of its heroes fall this year. The seafood chain Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy in May (though a new owner has since emerged to attempt to save it). Another family-friendly giant, TGI Fridays, filed for bankruptcy last month, and the casual Italian-food chain Buca di Beppo did so in August. Denny’s announced in October that it would be closing 150 locations. Applebee’s is in the midst of closing dozens of locations. Adjusted for inflation, spending this year at casual-dining chains is on track to be down about 9 percent relative to a decade ago, according to data that Technomic, an industry research firm, shared with me. And although overall restaurant spending has grown by about 4.5 percent in the past decade, that growth has mainly come from limited-service fast-food and fast-casual chains.

After a bruising few years of pandemic-era inflation, Americans looking to save money have been opting for cheaper, non-sit-down meals. But many consumers are also opting to use the disposable income they do have on upscale dining experiences that feel worth spending on, Alex Susskind, a professor of food and beverage management at Cornell, told me. These patterns leave the middle tier—which is neither the cheapest nor the highest-quality on the market—struggling to keep up.