War latest: Putin's plane 'involved in illegally deporting Ukrainian children'

That's all for our live coverage today, but we'll be back tomorrow with further updates and analysis.

If you're just checking in, here is a recap of the key developments over the course of the day so far:

• Vladimir Putin's presidential plane was involved in deporting Ukrainian children to Russia, US-backed research alleges;
• Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko will sign a landmark security pact later this week that reflects global geopolitical changes, according to Russian state news agency RIA;
• Russia's defence ministry has claimed the capture of two more villages in Ukraine, as it keeps up its quickening advances;
• The Kremlin says Joe Biden is putting fuel on the fire by throwing more aid and assurances to Ukraine in the dying days of his presidency;
• Japan's defence ministry says it has confirmed that a Russian navy submarine sailed through waters between two of its southwestern islands. 

Preparations are underway for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to visit Russia, but there is no clarity yet on when it will take place, the Kremlin has said.

Moscow is preparing to sign a new treaty with Tehran that will include closer defence cooperation between the countries.

A similar agreement was signed between Russia and North Korea in June.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was unclear when Mr Pezeshkian would visit Moscow, but that a date could be agreed quickly if necessary.

Iran's president met with Vladimir Putin last month at the BRICS summit in Kazan.

Reuters

Ukraine has conducted a test of new domestically produced missiles, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. 

Posting on Telegram, the Ukrainian president said that he had received reports from his military on the test.

"We are speeding up the production," he added. 

AP

By Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent 

Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, already has a reputation for being a formidable politician and a great survivor.

He knows the power of words and images, but he also knows that what you say in public isn't always the same as what gets talked about behind closed doors.

When I asked him today about the possibility of Ukraine ceding land in return for a peace deal with Russia, Rutte spoke of the need for Ukraine to be in a position of strength - to have a rich supply of weapons and ammunition before a peace process "whenever that starts…I would say more military aid and less discussions on what a peace process could look like". 

But in reality, the shape of a potential deal is in everyone's minds.

Almost every diplomat I have spoken to thinks it is inevitable that Ukraine will have to give up some of its territory, an admission that is even slowly seeping into the political discourse in Kyiv. 

That's why Volodymyr Zelenskyy's comments, about "the Ukraine we have under our control" were an important nuance.

The door is slowly being opened.

This is the moment a sea mine was detonated on a beach in Odesa, Ukraine. 

The Border Guard Service of Ukraine said the device had washed ashore during a storm.

The service asked citizens not to approach suspicious objects and report them to authorities instead.

Outgoing US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said he and the Biden administration will stand firmly behind Ukraine until they leave office.

Speaking at a news conference in Brussels at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Blinken said there was a "determination" to make sure that "Ukraine has what it needs to deal with what it's facing on the battlefield".

"But also to deal with the ongoing onslaught on its energy infrastructure, with once again Putin weaponising winter, trying to freeze people out of their homes, turn out the lights - we're not going to let that happen," he said. 

Ukraine's security service (SBU) says it has detained a 51-year-old local woman on suspicion of directing Russian airstrikes on the Donetsk region. 

"The agent tried to find out and give the Russians the locations of fortified areas and artillery positions of Ukrainian troops fighting for Chasiv Yar," the SBU said in a statement. 

It said Russia was planning to strike targets based on her intelligence, before it uncovered her plan and arrested her at her home. 

After searching the property, the SBU said it found a computer and a phone with which the suspect communicated with the Russian security services.  

"She faces life imprisonment with confiscation of property," the SBU added.

We've been reporting on Mark Rutte's comments at the start of a NATO foreign ministers' meeting this morning. 

In this video, the new secretary general outlines what he thinks Ukraine needs, amid swirling reports that the West is gearing up for the prospect of a peace deal in the new year. 

Vladimir Putin's presidential plane was involved in deporting Ukrainian children to Russia, US-backed research alleges.

A report by Yale's School of Public Health, which is funded by the US State Department, claims Russian presidential aircraft and funds were used in a programme that took children from occupied territories, stripped them of their previous identities and placed them with Russian families. 

The report states that at least two groups of children were flown by aircraft managed by the Presidential Property Management Department in May and October 2022.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2023 issued an arrest warrant for Putin for the alleged war crime of deportation of Ukrainian children.

The report, which has been shared with the Reuters news agency, will be presented to the UN Security Council tomorrow. 

The lead researcher, Nathaniel Raymond, said the research offers evidence that would support additional ICC charges of "forcible transfer" of people from one national and ethnic group to another.

He claimed the report proved "the deportation of Ukraine's children is part of a systematic, Kremlin-led program" to make them citizens of Russia. 

Japan's defence ministry says it has confirmed that a Russian navy submarine sailed through waters between two of its southwestern islands. 

It said it had tracked a navy rescue vessel and a submarine through the waters between Yonaguni Island and Iriomote Island - which lie to Japan's south, and just east of Taiwan - for the first time.

Russia has not commented on the claims. 

The West and the wider world seem to be converging on the idea that a peace deal is coming in the new year, according to our security and defence analyst Michael Clarke.

But what could such a deal look like?

According to Clarke, it won't involve the immediate NATO membership Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for in an exclusive interview with Sky's Stuart Ramsay last week.

What Ukraine is interested in, he assesses, is article five of the NATO charter - which says member states will go to war with any country that attacks a fellow member.

"The parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all."

NATO charter article five

Clarke suggests a workaround which gives Kyiv the security guarantees it wants without its outright accession to NATO.

"Suppose British, French, German and other troops, even Polish troops, were involved in holding a line - a ceasefire line - that would in effect be a tripwire," he suggests. 

He says this would act as an article five guarantee "in all but name", as NATO members would attack Russia if any of its troops holding this hypothetical line were targeted by Moscow. 

"The question there, is are we brave enough to do it?"

If there is a commitment to this, it's critical that NATO countries follow through on its pledges to Ukraine and threats to Russia, he adds. 

"I can promise you that Putin fully intends to take the whole of Ukraine at some time, unless he's prevented from doing so by significant power," he says.

Watch Clarke's full analysis here... 

Earlier, we reported on Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the west of the country. 

See our 8.27am post for more detail on the strikes on Ternopil and Rivne - which lie just over 100 miles east of Ukraine's border with Poland.

These images show firefighters tackling blazes in the two cities. 

Senior NATO figures are slowly coming round to the idea that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is looming, our Europe correspondent Adam Parsons has said. 

Reacting to the alliance's secretary general Mark Rutte's response to his question on peace (see 10.01am post), Parsons said he believes the process to be "much more nuanced" than officials are letting on.

"Behind the scenes there is a slow, creeping realisation that there's going to have to be a deal, however unpalatable that may be," Parsons said. 

He added that he believes no-one at this high-stakes meeting thinks it's realistic that Russia will simply return all of the territory it has captured since 2022 and even before then.

"The question is, then, what do you allow Russia to keep?

"Is it simply territory that they took in in 2014?" he asked, referring to Moscow's annexation of Crimea. 

"Let's be honest, there wasn't much of an international outcry then... so is it perhaps territory that they have pushed into in this conflict?"

A reminder that Russia controls some 110,000sqkm of Ukrainian territory, including parts of four regions it annexed in 2022 and Crimea in 2014. 

That makes any deal very complex, Parsons added. 

"This is not this is not a simple question of big stripes of primary colours - this is about the areas of grey, the areas of negotiation. 

"The important thing is behind the scenes, [there is] growing realisation that the deal is going to have to be done - and for some in Ukraine it could be a very painful deal."

Joe Biden is putting fuel on the fire by throwing more aid and assurances to Ukraine in the dying days of his presidency, the Kremlin says. 

Antony Blinken said yesterday that a new American weapons package for Kyiv, worth £571m, would include include Stinger missiles, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and drones and land mines.

Speaking this morning, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "the current administration is pursuing its goals, its consistent line is to keep this war from slowing down.

"The [Biden] administration is doing everything it can to further add fuel to the fire. 

"At the same time, this and other aid packages cannot change the course of events, cannot affect the dynamics on the frontlines."

Europe correspondent Adam Parsons is at the Mark Rutte news conference in Brussels, taking place ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers. 

Parsons asks the secretary general whether NATO would bring Ukraine straight into the alliance if Russia can keep the territory it occupies in the short-term - a suggestion made by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an exclusive interview with Sky's Stuart Ramsay last week. 

Rutte says: "Ukraine doesn't need more ideas on what a peace process could look like."

The alliance's role is to "make sure Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace talks start", he says.

He adds peace talks "can only start when Ukraine is in a position of strength".

He also says he wants to see "more military aid and less discussion on what a peace process could look like". 

NATO secretary general Mark Rutte is speaking in Brussels ahead of a meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers. 

Outlining the agenda, he says that there will be several discussions on Ukraine.

"Russia's aggression shows no sign of abating - just the opposite - Putin is ramping up his rhetoric and reckless actions," he says. 

"He is using Ukraine as a testing ground for experimental missiles and is deploying North Korean soldiers in this illegal war," he adds, appearing to refer to the use of a new ballistic weapon (nicknamed "Oreshnik") fired at the city of Dnipro in late November. 

He says Putin is not interested in peace, but is pressing on, trying to take more territory "because he thinks he can break Ukraine's resolve and ours. But he is wrong."

There will also be discussions on Russia and China trying to "destabilise our nations with acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and energy blackmail", he says. 

"None of these actions will deter us from supporting Ukraine or making our own defence stronger."

You can watch his full news conference here:

Russia's defence ministry has claimed the capture of two more villages in Ukraine, as it keeps up its quickening advances. 

Novodarivka in southern Zaporizhzhia region and Romanivka in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region have both fallen into Moscow's grasp, according to the ministry. 

Read our previous post for a broader look at the territorial situation. 

With Western leaders - including Sir Keir Starmer - shifting rhetoric towards suggesting a negotiated settlement is now the way forward, every inch of territory could prove pivotal for both Moscow and Kyiv.

In this post, we're looking at the state of play on each of the fronts. 

The big picture

We'll start with a wide view of the conflict. 

Russia controls more than 110,000sqkm of Ukrainian territory, according to a leading thinktank.

Donbas region

Moscow's forces continue their advance towards the crucial logistics town of Pokrovsk, with the Russian ministry of defence regularly claiming village after village in the area. 

Ukraine's Kursk invasion

Ukraine continues to defy experts and is still holding considerable ground in the Russian region of Kursk.

In recent weeks, Russia has called on some 12,000 North Korean troops to join a massive effort to reclaim the territory, seen as crucial in any future negotiations. 

Ukrainian commanders have reported "round-the-clock" attacks from Russian troops using armoured, light and all-weather vehicles. 

Luhansk region

In Luhansk, a Ukrainian commander has claimed that Russian forces are attempting to bypass Kyiv's defences near Kupyansk (directly north of Lyman) and seize positions along the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.

The Institute for the Study of War says Russian forces have continued offensive action in the region but have not made confirmed advances. 

Russian forces also maintain their positions inside Kharkiv, having opened a second front back in May - but as the map shows, no considerable progress has been made. 

Zaporizhzhia region

Finally, in Zaporizhzhia, reports of a massive Russian offensive are yet to manifest into reality. 

Military bloggers claim the offensive will begin at an unspecified time after Thursday. 

Fighting continues, but there have been no meaningful changes to the frontline. 

This weeks marks 30 years since Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, in exchange for what it thought was an ironclad security guarantee from the West and Russia. 

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum saw Kyiv give up the world's third largest nuclear arsenal in return for security assurances, including from Moscow, after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. 

Ukraine's foreign ministry said today the agreement "is a monument to short-sightedness in strategic security decision-making". 

It added the agreement "should serve as a reminder to the current leaders of the Euro-Atlantic community that building a European security architecture at the expense of Ukraine's interests, rather than taking them into consideration is destined to failure".

Amid a swerve from some major Western leaders towards a rhetoric around a negotiated settlement, Kyiv is keen to ensure it does not fall into a similar situation. 

"Enough of the Budapest Memorandum. Enough of the Minsk Agreements. Twice is enough, we cannot fall into the same trap a third time. We simply have no right to do so," Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said previously.

The only path it sees is an immediate invitation to join NATO - as members of the alliance send their foreign ministers to a meeting which starts today. 

"We are convinced that the only real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent to further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is Ukraine's full membership in NATO," the ministry said. 

Russian drones struck energy sites in Ukraine's western regions again overnight, as part of wider efforts to bring down morale in the country.

The attack left part of the city of Ternopil, just over 100 miles east of Ukraine's border with Poland, without electricity, its mayor said.

That comes a week after Moscow's strikes cut power to much of the city and its surrounding region.

"Energy workers and rescuers are eliminating the consequences of the attack. Stock up on water, charge your phones," Serhiy Nadal said early this morning. 

Russia also attacked energy infrastructure in the Rivne region, governor Oleksandr Koval said, adding there were no casualties.