French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday evening on a no-confidence motion that is all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
It would be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in over 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.
The debate was scheduled to start at 1500 GMT, with voting taking place about three hours later, parliamentary officials said. President Emmanuel Macron, who is on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, is due to return to France that day.
The collapse of the French government would leave a hole at the heart of Europe, with Germany in election mode, weeks before the US president-elect, Donald Trump, re-enters the White House.
After weeks of tension, the political crisis came to a head when Barnier, who has been prime minister for only three months, said he would try to force the social security part of the budget through parliament without a vote, after failing to win support from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).
Barnier’s entourage and Le Pen’s camp, who had been propping up the minority coalition, each blamed the other and said they had done all they could to reach a deal to trim spending on benefits and had been open to dialogue.
“Censuring the budget is for us the only way the constitution gives us to protect the French,” Le Pen told reporters as she arrived in parliament on Tuesday.
The left and the far right combined have enough votes to topple Barnier, and Le Pen has confirmed that her party would vote for a leftwing alliance’s no-confidence bill. Not enough lawmakers would back the RN’s own no-confidence motion.
The finance minister, Antoine Armand, told France 2 TV politicians had a responsibility “not to plunge the country into uncertainty”.
Barnier is due to be interviewed on television news programmes at about 1920 GMT on Tuesday. It is not yet known what he will say.
His draft budget had sought to cut the fiscal deficit, which is projected to exceed 6% of national output this year, with €60bn (£50bn) in tax increases and spending cuts. It sought to drag down the deficit to 5% next year, with ratings agencies keeping a close eye on progress.
If the no-confidence vote passes, Barnier would have to tender his resignation but Macron could ask him to stay on in a caretaker role as he seeks a new prime minister, which could take until next year.
If parliament has not adopted the budget by 20 December, the caretaker government could propose special emergency legislation to roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year. But that would mean that savings measures Barnier had planned would fall by the wayside.
The upheaval is not without risk for Le Pen either, who has for years sought to convince voters that she can offer stability.
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An Ipsos survey last month showed a majority of French people did not trust politicians, with the RN faring slightly better than other parties but with voters still unhappy with how it was behaving in parliament.
Fifty per cent of of voters told the survey the RN was dangerous for democracy, albeit 11 points lower than in 2020.
A poll by Odoxa showed that 59% of RN voters prefer Jordan Bardella, who is now party chief, to Le Pen, who is awaiting judgment in a trial over alleged misuse of EU funds, which could possibly lead to her being barred for running for public office for five years. She denies any wrongdoing.
Macron, whose term runs into mid-2027 after he won a second mandate in 2022, cannot be forced out by parliament. He precipitated the current political crisis by calling snap elections in June, which he said should help clarify the political landscape.
There can be no new snap parliamentary election before July.
