STATISTICS
Water Cooler Small Talk: Why Does the Monty Hall Problem Still Bother Us? 🐐🚗
A look at the counterintuitive mathematics of game show puzzles
Water cooler small talk is a special kind of small talk, typically observed in office spaces around a water cooler. There, employees frequently share all kinds of corporate gossip, myths, and legends, inaccurate scientific opinions, indiscreet personal anecdotes, or outright lies. Anything goes. So, in my Water Cooler Small Talk posts, I discuss strange and usually scientifically invalid opinions I have overheard in the office that have literally left me speechless.
Here’s the water cooler opinion of today’s post:
‘-In a game show, you are given a choice among three doors: one door hides a car and the other two doors hide goats. You chose one of the doors, then the host reveals a goat behind one of the other doors, and gives you the option to swap the door you originally chose for the other remaining one. Should you swap?
-No, I will keep the door I initially chose. The chances are 50–50 either way.’
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If you didn’t recognize it already this is the famous Monty Hall problem. Spoiler alert, the chances are not 50–50; there is a 1/3…
