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Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce

Uri Dadush

The global economic edifice built after World War II is a source of unprecedented prosperity. It cannot function without open and predictable international trade, and the peaceful international relations that are its foundation. The rules that enable trade are under attack. Social divisions and great power rivalry have eroded the political support for open trade. The consequence is fragmentation of world trade, its separation into blocks that advance domestic producers or favored nations nearby. These blocs are themselves often pulled apart by competing agendas. The prospects are for vastly reduced economic efficiency and - most ominously - heightened geopolitical tensions. The questions about why this is happening, how economic fragmentation will evolve, and how to respond to it, are uppermost in the minds of policymakers and businesses across the world. These are the questions that Uri Dadush seeks to answer. Since the uncertainty cannot be dispelled, it must be better managed.

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Lexington Books
Pages: 226 • Trim: 6¼ x 9¼
978-1-66692-936-2 • Hardback • September 2024 • $105.00 • (£81.00)
978-1-66692-937-9 • eBook • September 2024 • $45.00 • (£35.00)
Subjects: Political Science / International Relations / Trade & Tariffs, Political Science / Political Economy, Political Science / Policy Analysis

Uri Dadush is research professor at Maryland University and past World Bank Trade Director.

Introduction: A Global Emergency

Part I: Threats to the Rules-Based Trading System, and its Staying Power

Chapter 1: The WTO at the Crossroads

Chapter 2: The Persistence of Globalization

Chapter 3: The Resilience of Global Value Chains

Chapter 4: Protectionism Contained – For Now…

Part II: Fragmentation and its Consequences

Chapter 5: The Preferential Trend

Chapter 6: The Shape of Fragmentation

Part III: The Centrality of China-US Relations for the Survival of the Rules-Based Trading System

Chapter 7: How the United States Created the Rules-Based Trading System and Changed its Mind

Chapter 8: The Trump-Biden Trade Policy

Chapter 9: Does China Fit?

Chapter 10: China’s Trade Policy

Part IV: The Policy Agenda

Chapter 11: Preserving The Trading System

Conclusion: The Tortuous Road Ahead

Uri Dadush shows in this exacting book that the observed fragmentation of international trade is a cost in terms of lost welfare but also (and crucially so) it represents a threat towards the continued existence of the international regime as we know it. This book is necessary reading for policy-makers, and academics interested in the ongoing debate about the shaping of world relations.


— Petros C. Mavroidis, Columbia Law School


Uri Dadush’s Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce skillfully guides readers—analytically and geographically—through the new world of trade. Looking beyond the catchalls of globalization and protection, Dadush reveals the dynamism and adaptability of the trading system in the face of big shifts—including great power rivalries, technological change, climate rules and subsidies, regionalization, and new barriers. He concludes by offering practical counsel—and a possible pathway—for the two most important economies, the United States and China, to accommodate their rivalry within a system of rules and a modernized WTO.


— Robert B. Zoellick, former US Trade Representative, President of the World Bank and US Deputy Secretary of State


Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce offers a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of crucial topics in world trade, underpinned by extensive and high-quality data. Particularly valuable is the author’s thought-provoking analysis of the 'why' behind the changes and challenges in world trade, stimulating new thinking in relation to both the issues and solutions to address them. Furthermore, the book provides an invaluable analysis of Chinese economic and trade policy, especially in the context of the US-China trade war, offering an essential perspective on China's strategic considerations and approaches in dealing with these complexities. It is a remarkably accessible and well-structured guide for experts and general readers who are interested in world trade.


— Jean Dong, Author of Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints


Uri Dadush is one of the most acute observers of the trends that shape trade and investment flows internationally. His research is as rigorous as his approach is original. Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce surely is one of the best works published on this subject in recent years. A must read.


— Moises Naim, Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of The Revenge of Power


This is a must-read, beautifully written, brilliant book on a topic of immense importance -- the future of global trade. Uri Dadush is one of the world's premiere applied trade economists with full command of theory, policy, institutions, geopolitics, history, and, above all, the facts. Is free international trade coming to an end? Dadush's striking, convincing answer to this mega question will please some, disturb others, but convince all.


— Laurence J. Kotlikoff, professor of economics, Boston University


At a time when trade and globalization have become bad words, Uri D. Dadush shows us that the situation is worrying, but not hopeless. The global trading system is broken, but there is still time to save it. This book gives an interesting perspective of how we got where we are and how we, mainly the US and China, can avoid further fragmentation.


— Cecilia Malmstrom


Uri Dadush's Geopolitics, Trade Blocks and the Fragmentation of World Commerce is an essential read for understanding the contemporary challenges facing global trade, offering deep insights into the erosion of trade rules and the growing fragmentation caused by geopolitical shifts. Dadush's rigorous analysis and strategic perspective make this book a crucial resource for policymakers and business leaders navigating the uncertain future of international trade.


— Anabel González


No one is more qualified to explain the dire consequences of the fragmentation of the WTO-based multilateral trading system than Uri Dadush. In this new book, he tells us why it is happening, how it is happening, and, most important, why it matters to the whole world. The good news is, he does not see this unravelling as irreversible but believes it can still be turned around with the right kind of policies and leadership. Those who hope to preserve and improve the trading system should read his analysis and his insightful recommendations.


— James Bacchus, University of Central Florida


Uri Dadush’s Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce could not be more timely coming when Protectionism is on the rise, and the value of the Multilateral Trading System with the WTO rules that underpin it is being questioned. With a refreshing dose of optimism Dadush discusses, not just what ails the system but what can and must be done to save it. In this regard, his work echoes our call at the WTO for Reglobalization—a reimagining of globalization and reform of its rules such that those left at the margins of Global Trade are included.


— Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, DG WTO and Former Finance Minister of Nigeria


This timely and insightful book stands out for its integration of geopolitics into the analysis of global trade fragmentation. Uri Dadush combines rigorous trade theory and empirics with a deep understanding of geopolitical tensions. The book addresses why fragmentation is happening, its consequences, and what policymakers can do to mitigate the economic and political disruptions in a world marked by the Pandemic, China-US tensions, and the war in Ukraine. A must-read for understanding the complexities of today's fractious and unstable world order.


— Jose De Sousa, professor of economics at the University of Paris Panthéon-Assas


Every day, literally, we see the global trading system cracking apart. Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce gives us the keys to understand what it is happening and why, driven by sound, lucid analyses, and underpinned by a mass of information. It also maps out credible ways of limiting the damage. It is a tour de force produced by one of the most knowledgeable experts.


— Charles Wyplosz, The Graduate Institute, Geneva


Dr. Dadush offers a useful and readable perspective on the state of global trade policy and politics, with particular emphasis on the US, China, and the need for an effective rules-based trading system. The work benefits from its juxtaposition of hard data against economic theory, political reality, and punditry. While he works hard to find optimism across a landscape more often described in terms of cynicism or handwringing, Dr. Dadush urges us to keep going back to core underlying issues and to avoid trying to solve non-trade problems with trade policy 'solutions.'


— Susan Schwab, Former United States Trade Representative


Uri Dadush presents a fascinating and highly readable account of global trade. While trade is resilient, Dadush shows that the risks of fragmentation increase and would undermine fighting poverty and addressing climate change. Policy makers should listen to his strong pleas for preserving globalisation. An accommodation between China and the US needs to be found so that the world community can continue benefiting from global trade.


— Guntram Wolff, senior fellow Bruegel and professor of economics at the Willy Brandt School.


Domestic employment, income distribution, relations with China and the developing world depend on trade, and for the ordinary citizens of good will, the news can be confusing and raise much fear. But there is hope! They should read Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce, which is the fruit of a lifetime's experience and offers a clear and balanced view. In that sense, it is a welcome contribution to what we need most now, peace.


— Christophe Chamley


Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce

Cover Image
Hardback
eBook
Summary
Summary
  • The global economic edifice built after World War II is a source of unprecedented prosperity. It cannot function without open and predictable international trade, and the peaceful international relations that are its foundation. The rules that enable trade are under attack. Social divisions and great power rivalry have eroded the political support for open trade. The consequence is fragmentation of world trade, its separation into blocks that advance domestic producers or favored nations nearby. These blocs are themselves often pulled apart by competing agendas. The prospects are for vastly reduced economic efficiency and - most ominously - heightened geopolitical tensions. The questions about why this is happening, how economic fragmentation will evolve, and how to respond to it, are uppermost in the minds of policymakers and businesses across the world. These are the questions that Uri Dadush seeks to answer. Since the uncertainty cannot be dispelled, it must be better managed.

Details
Details
  • Lexington Books
    Pages: 226 • Trim: 6¼ x 9¼
    978-1-66692-936-2 • Hardback • September 2024 • $105.00 • (£81.00)
    978-1-66692-937-9 • eBook • September 2024 • $45.00 • (£35.00)
    Subjects: Political Science / International Relations / Trade & Tariffs, Political Science / Political Economy, Political Science / Policy Analysis
Author
Author
  • Uri Dadush is research professor at Maryland University and past World Bank Trade Director.

Table of Contents
Table of Contents
  • Introduction: A Global Emergency

    Part I: Threats to the Rules-Based Trading System, and its Staying Power

    Chapter 1: The WTO at the Crossroads

    Chapter 2: The Persistence of Globalization

    Chapter 3: The Resilience of Global Value Chains

    Chapter 4: Protectionism Contained – For Now…

    Part II: Fragmentation and its Consequences

    Chapter 5: The Preferential Trend

    Chapter 6: The Shape of Fragmentation

    Part III: The Centrality of China-US Relations for the Survival of the Rules-Based Trading System

    Chapter 7: How the United States Created the Rules-Based Trading System and Changed its Mind

    Chapter 8: The Trump-Biden Trade Policy

    Chapter 9: Does China Fit?

    Chapter 10: China’s Trade Policy

    Part IV: The Policy Agenda

    Chapter 11: Preserving The Trading System

    Conclusion: The Tortuous Road Ahead

Reviews
Reviews
  • Uri Dadush shows in this exacting book that the observed fragmentation of international trade is a cost in terms of lost welfare but also (and crucially so) it represents a threat towards the continued existence of the international regime as we know it. This book is necessary reading for policy-makers, and academics interested in the ongoing debate about the shaping of world relations.


    — Petros C. Mavroidis, Columbia Law School


    Uri Dadush’s Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce skillfully guides readers—analytically and geographically—through the new world of trade. Looking beyond the catchalls of globalization and protection, Dadush reveals the dynamism and adaptability of the trading system in the face of big shifts—including great power rivalries, technological change, climate rules and subsidies, regionalization, and new barriers. He concludes by offering practical counsel—and a possible pathway—for the two most important economies, the United States and China, to accommodate their rivalry within a system of rules and a modernized WTO.


    — Robert B. Zoellick, former US Trade Representative, President of the World Bank and US Deputy Secretary of State


    Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce offers a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of crucial topics in world trade, underpinned by extensive and high-quality data. Particularly valuable is the author’s thought-provoking analysis of the 'why' behind the changes and challenges in world trade, stimulating new thinking in relation to both the issues and solutions to address them. Furthermore, the book provides an invaluable analysis of Chinese economic and trade policy, especially in the context of the US-China trade war, offering an essential perspective on China's strategic considerations and approaches in dealing with these complexities. It is a remarkably accessible and well-structured guide for experts and general readers who are interested in world trade.


    — Jean Dong, Author of Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints


    Uri Dadush is one of the most acute observers of the trends that shape trade and investment flows internationally. His research is as rigorous as his approach is original. Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce surely is one of the best works published on this subject in recent years. A must read.


    — Moises Naim, Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of The Revenge of Power


    This is a must-read, beautifully written, brilliant book on a topic of immense importance -- the future of global trade. Uri Dadush is one of the world's premiere applied trade economists with full command of theory, policy, institutions, geopolitics, history, and, above all, the facts. Is free international trade coming to an end? Dadush's striking, convincing answer to this mega question will please some, disturb others, but convince all.


    — Laurence J. Kotlikoff, professor of economics, Boston University


    At a time when trade and globalization have become bad words, Uri D. Dadush shows us that the situation is worrying, but not hopeless. The global trading system is broken, but there is still time to save it. This book gives an interesting perspective of how we got where we are and how we, mainly the US and China, can avoid further fragmentation.


    — Cecilia Malmstrom


    Uri Dadush's Geopolitics, Trade Blocks and the Fragmentation of World Commerce is an essential read for understanding the contemporary challenges facing global trade, offering deep insights into the erosion of trade rules and the growing fragmentation caused by geopolitical shifts. Dadush's rigorous analysis and strategic perspective make this book a crucial resource for policymakers and business leaders navigating the uncertain future of international trade.


    — Anabel González


    No one is more qualified to explain the dire consequences of the fragmentation of the WTO-based multilateral trading system than Uri Dadush. In this new book, he tells us why it is happening, how it is happening, and, most important, why it matters to the whole world. The good news is, he does not see this unravelling as irreversible but believes it can still be turned around with the right kind of policies and leadership. Those who hope to preserve and improve the trading system should read his analysis and his insightful recommendations.


    — James Bacchus, University of Central Florida


    Uri Dadush’s Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce could not be more timely coming when Protectionism is on the rise, and the value of the Multilateral Trading System with the WTO rules that underpin it is being questioned. With a refreshing dose of optimism Dadush discusses, not just what ails the system but what can and must be done to save it. In this regard, his work echoes our call at the WTO for Reglobalization—a reimagining of globalization and reform of its rules such that those left at the margins of Global Trade are included.


    — Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, DG WTO and Former Finance Minister of Nigeria


    This timely and insightful book stands out for its integration of geopolitics into the analysis of global trade fragmentation. Uri Dadush combines rigorous trade theory and empirics with a deep understanding of geopolitical tensions. The book addresses why fragmentation is happening, its consequences, and what policymakers can do to mitigate the economic and political disruptions in a world marked by the Pandemic, China-US tensions, and the war in Ukraine. A must-read for understanding the complexities of today's fractious and unstable world order.


    — Jose De Sousa, professor of economics at the University of Paris Panthéon-Assas


    Every day, literally, we see the global trading system cracking apart. Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce gives us the keys to understand what it is happening and why, driven by sound, lucid analyses, and underpinned by a mass of information. It also maps out credible ways of limiting the damage. It is a tour de force produced by one of the most knowledgeable experts.


    — Charles Wyplosz, The Graduate Institute, Geneva


    Dr. Dadush offers a useful and readable perspective on the state of global trade policy and politics, with particular emphasis on the US, China, and the need for an effective rules-based trading system. The work benefits from its juxtaposition of hard data against economic theory, political reality, and punditry. While he works hard to find optimism across a landscape more often described in terms of cynicism or handwringing, Dr. Dadush urges us to keep going back to core underlying issues and to avoid trying to solve non-trade problems with trade policy 'solutions.'


    — Susan Schwab, Former United States Trade Representative


    Uri Dadush presents a fascinating and highly readable account of global trade. While trade is resilient, Dadush shows that the risks of fragmentation increase and would undermine fighting poverty and addressing climate change. Policy makers should listen to his strong pleas for preserving globalisation. An accommodation between China and the US needs to be found so that the world community can continue benefiting from global trade.


    — Guntram Wolff, senior fellow Bruegel and professor of economics at the Willy Brandt School.


    Domestic employment, income distribution, relations with China and the developing world depend on trade, and for the ordinary citizens of good will, the news can be confusing and raise much fear. But there is hope! They should read Geopolitics, Trade Blocks, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce, which is the fruit of a lifetime's experience and offers a clear and balanced view. In that sense, it is a welcome contribution to what we need most now, peace.


    — Christophe Chamley


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  • Cover image for the book Environmental Protection Policy and Experience in the U.S. and China's Western Regions
  • Cover image for the book Latin America and the Asian Giants: Evolving Ties with China and India
  • Cover image for the book Oil Titans: National Oil Companies in the Middle East
  • Cover image for the book The Trade and Culture Debate: Evidence from US Trade Agreements
  • Cover image for the book Prospects and Ambiguities of Globalization: Critical Assessments at a Time of Growing Turmoil
  • Cover image for the book Economic Policies at Cross Purposes: The United States and Developing Countries
  • Cover image for the book Barriers or Benefits?: Regulation in Transatlantic Trade
  • Cover image for the book Product Standards for Internationally Integrated Goods Markets
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  • Cover image for the book Prying Open Fortress Europe: The Turn to Sectoral Labor Migration
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  • Cover image for the book North American Free Trade: Assessing the Impact
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