Donald Trump has won the majority of electoral college votes to defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.
Despite polling gains for the Democrats after Biden’s exit from the race in July, Harris failed to maintain a lead and the election was neck-and-neck in the final weeks of the campaign.
As of 9.10 ET (14.10 GMT) on Wednesday, more than 2,800 of nearly 3,200 counties had returned more than 90% of their votes. The results show that America has firmly swung back to the Republicans. The Democrats won 2020 by expanding their share of votes across the country, but 90% of counties swung back to the Republicans in 2024.
The Republicans managed to take three key swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia. That was enough to win, even with Nevada and Arizona races still undeclared. At the time of publication, no swing state had been called for the Democrats.
Below, there is a granular picture of how Trump won the election, looking at how every county’s vote has changed compared with the 2020 presidential election.
At the time of publication, Trump had managed to flip Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which was enough to win the majority of electoral college votes.
He may end up flipping more swing states once the vote count is concluded.
Looking at the election result map by county gives a distorted view of the election, emphasising land mass instead of voters.
But in this map, there is a common pattern: Democrats winning in smaller urban counties and Republicans winning in larger but less-populated rural areas.
Though the Democrats may have won in traditional strongholds, Trump won the election after gaining support and increasing his margin across the country.
On top of that, despite some modest gains, Harris underperformed Biden in critical Democratic-supporting areas.
When looking at the swing states – which Trump may still sweep – the data shows how Republicans managed to gain vote share in rural and urban areas and this outweighed small Democratic gains elsewhere.
The first big Republican win was Georgia.
Biden won the state with less than 12,000 votes in 2020, and Harris has now lost by more than 100,000 votes.
There were Democratic hopes that Georgia’s Black population – who form a majority in counties such as Hancock and Clayton – would help Harris hold the state.
Harris did not achieve big swings in these areas in Georgia.
Initial data suggests the Democratic candidate underperforming in rural and urban areas alike.
While there was a small swing to Harris in urban areas, especially around Atlanta, these were insignificant compared with Trump’s increased support elsewhere in the state.
Nationally, the urban-rural divide was also on show.
In the past, rural counties have swung for Republicans while urban counties have gone for the Democrats.
This trend was largely replicated in 2024, with a strong Trump showing in rural areas.
But crucially, Trump gained votes in cities too – with large gains in cities such as Miami, New York and Chicago.
This helped cancel out the Democratic advantage and help Trump flip key states.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, was seen as the must-win state.
In the end it wasn’t even close.
Trump's improved performance compared with 2020 was exemplified by two contrasting counties: his margin shifted by five points in both urban Philadelphia, where he got 20% of the vote this time, and in rural Pike county, where he got 62%.
Republicans gained in almost every county – showing just how he managed to gain support across every community.
This meant he ended up winning by more than 100,000 votes.
2016 Clinton v Trump
2020 Biden v Trump
2024 Harris v Trump
Nationally, education was once again pivotal to understanding the election result.
There are not a lot of blue arrows on the national map, but those there tend to be in areas with higher levels of education.
However, even within highly educated counties, on average Trump improved his margins, unlike in 2020 and 2016.
2016
Clinton v
Trump
by 1.9pp
2020
Biden v
Trump
2024
Harris v
Trump
But like 2016, Trump’s victory had its foundation in support from people with lower levels of education.
Areas that had less than 15% of people with a college degree once again voted for the Republican candidate in significant numbers.
Michigan was still counting votes and yet to be called at the time of publication.
But it was clear that, with the exception of a few suburban counties such as Kalkaska which recorded modest Democratic gains, Trump had gained across the state.
The only areas in Michigan in which there were swings to the Democrats were areas with a higher proportion of white voters.
This represented a national trend, where Trump managed to erode Democratic support among Black and Latino voters.
Trump's increase in support among ethnic minorities – historically communities which support the Democrats overwhelmingly – was one of the big stories of the night.
On average, counties that were majority-black swung to the Republicans by 5.5 points.
2016
Clinton v
Trump
by 5.1pp
2020
Biden v
Trump
2024
Harris v
Trump
In counties where over three in 10 people were Latino, Trump gained an average of 6.8 points.
This built on similarly strong increases in support in these counties in 2016 and 2020.
2016
Clinton v
Trump
by 3.2pp
2020
Biden v
Trump
2024
Harris v
Trump
Another big surprise of the night was the fact that states with abortion on the ballot did not experience the same swings to the Democrats as they did in the 2022 midterms.
Of these states, all but South Dakota, Nebraska and Florida voted for abortion rights.
Despite this support for abortion among these other states, there was still a sea of red arrows among them.
Another sign of how Trump has managed to change American politics is Florida.
This was a reliable swing state just a decade ago, but is now firmly in the hands of Donald Trump. This election Trump performed particularly well in counties with high numbers of Latino voters, such as Miami-Dade county.
Indeed, compared with 2016 – the first time Trump stood for president – he’s managed to strengthen and entrench Republican support across Floridian counties.
These gains were seen both in blue areas – Trump's support in Orange county increased from 36% to 43% over eight years – and red counties – for example in Bay county, with his support increasing two points to 73%.
2016 Clinton v Trump
2020 Biden v Trump
2024 Harris v Trump
The results recorded in counties with enough ballots already counted present a polarised country.
The Republican candidate managed to win by edging out gains across the board, but as important is the fact that Harris was not able to muster the necessary support in Democratic strongholds.
While not every vote has been counted, it is clear that the results leave the map in a sea of red.
Trump managed to win by gaining support across the board. This has put him in a position to gain not only a majority of electoral college votes – he is also likely to win the popular vote.
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage
Data notes
The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press. AP “call” the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.
Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night and in the following days as more data on voter turnout becomes available.
Official results can take days or weeks to be fully finalised. This is often because of the verification process of absentee, mail-in and provisional ballots. In some states, mail-in ballots can be received and counted several days after election day.
County results are only included in the interactive if over 90% of precincts within the county have reported ballot data.
Demographic data used has been sourced from the US Census American Community Survey 2022 five-year estimates.
Design by Harry Fischer
