Hisham Haq

#Elections2024 / #SolomonIslands / #China - Solomon Islands’ elections could impact China’s influence in the South Pacific - from The Associated Press: The country in which China has gained most influence in the South Pacific, Solomon Islands, goes to the polls on Wednesday in an election that could shape the region’s future. Current Prime Minister Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who switched the Solomons’ allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing and ignited fears of China gaining a naval foothold in the South Pacific, is seeking an unprecedented second consecutive term at the government’s helm. Even if Sogavare fails, observers suspect China will be backing more than one pro-Beijing candidate in the murky contest for the Solomons’ top job in an effort to cement Beijing’s growing influence. There are also fears the electoral process could again ignite violence in a restive nation riven with inter-island and ethnic tensions, a perceived lack of sharing of resources, widespread poverty and high youth unemployment. Voters from among 700,000 people spread over the more than 900 islands that comprise the Solomon Islands will elect 50 lawmakers from 334 candidates. Only 21 candidates are women and none of them is currently in office. The only two women in the current parliament won’t contest the election. The 50 newly elected lawmakers then decide which of them will become prime minister. No political party ever wins the 26-seat majority needed to form a government in a system derived from the former British colonial masters’ Westminster system. The eve of the election is known as Devil’s Night when candidates and their campaign teams are notorious for resorting to underhand means to skew results in their favor such as by buying votes. That can take the form of paying voters’ transport costs to get home to electoral districts where they’re registered to vote, offers of cash for the promise of a vote or paying influential local leaders to voice support. Ballots are supposed to be cast in secret but there is apparently enough doubt about the integrity of the system to sustain the practice of vote buying and discourage voters from reneging on their promises to vote for the candidates who paid them. After the election, lawmakers form camps around hotels in the capital Honiara where horse trading takes place to persuade a majority to back various candidates for prime minister. Ministerial posts are offered as inducements. Foreign business figures from the mining, logging, retail and tourism industries also take part in negotiations, fueling concerns lawmakers might put personal gain ahead of constituents’ interests. Sogavare was sworn in three weeks after the 2019 election date. Sogavare has been made prime minister four times and hopes to become the first prime minister to gain a second consecutive term in the Solomons’ 12th parliament since independence in 1978. Story continues, for full report click below:

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What do states in the Asia-Pacific think of the relationship between the United States and China? In this report, Manpreet Sethi, Frank O'Donnell and Joel Petersson Ivre analyse the structural preferences of regional actors concerning regional stability. These preferences are framed in terms of "end-states", which represent the desired long-term roles that regional actors envision for China and the US. While a definitive end-state may be elusive, this concept helps us understand how states frame their policy goals. The end-state preferences discussed in this report are:  🔸 US-China competition (when both major powers seek primacy);  🔸 US dominance (when the US seeks primacy and China is willing to concede it);  🔸 Chinese dominance (when China seeks primacy and the US is willing to concede it); 🔸 Multipolarity or managed détente, where neither seeks primacy and allows the other or several more states to exercise strategic autonomy. The report finds that there is no common preference for which end-state can best maintain regional stability. Actors often express a preference for one end-state, while their actions seem to pursue a different one. It explores the implications of these four end-states through project dialogues and research, discussing regional strategic approaches and trade-offs for avoiding conflict and promoting peace-building in each scenario. Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gDSW9mx7 🚀 Want to learn more? Join us for a webinar on October 28 (9PM, EST) / October 29 (10AM KST)! Manpreet Sethi and Joel Petersson Ivre will present key findings from the report, based on extensive interviews and analyses with policy practitioners from the Asia-Pacific, China, and the US. 🔗 Register now: https://lnkd.in/gPKRHCu6 🌐 Check out our project page for more info: https://lnkd.in/e4kZMvg7

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Working paper: Economists need to give more attention to the current and future economic uses of space Space, once dismissed as mere science fiction, is now a vibrant marketplace driven by economic incentives, decreasing launch costs, and emerging new markets, warranting more attention from economists, write Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli. In their paper, Alessio and Francesco make three fundamental points. 1. Space is already a marketplace and therefore responds predominantly to economic incentives. 2. Launch costs are likely to significantly drop even further by the end of this decade, and more so in the 2030s. We are entering a period where (space) trade frictions are falling, and new markets will be created. 3. A taxonomy is needed to help think about creating future value added in space. Space should be worth greater attention by the economics profession. Read: https://lnkd.in/e9qw-YfE #Space #Economy #ValueAdded

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Report: Demand Drivers of the Lunar Cislunar Economy (IDA 2020) #SpaceEconomy #NewSpaceEconomy #NewSpace #Space *

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Report: Demand Drivers of the Lunar Cislunar Economy (IDA 2020) #SpaceEconomy #NewSpaceEconomy #NewSpace #Space *

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For the Pacific Islands Development Program's Pacific Islands Report, EWCW Young Professional alumna Lei Nishiuwatoko discusses opportunities for #Japan's mutual cooperation with Pacific Islands: https://bit.ly/3yZtuYU

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Turkiye’s defence-industrial partnerships have shifted over time as the country’s position in international politics has changed. As part of a joint project, the IISS and the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research explore how this process has developed and the tensions in the country’s current position. ➡ Read the latest research report: https://lnkd.in/euz45wFv Authors: Sıtkı Egeli, Serhat Güvenç, Çağlar Kurç and Arda Mevlütoğlu #Turkiye #Defence #Military

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🌐 A look back at a transformative decade: Our infographic illustrates the steps and obstacles Türkiye faced while re-establishing diplomatic relations with the USA from 1917 to 1927. A resource for professionals interested in historical international relations. #Geopolitics #TürkiyeUSA

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The China-U.S. relationship is frequently regarded as the central issue in global geopolitics. The Indonesia-EU dynamic offers another critical dimension to the current global landscape.

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This piece by Ika Trijsburg, Michele Acuto and Daniel Pejic addresses the critical need to find solutions for global issues such as the climate through diplomatic cooperation. The City Diplomacy Masterclass continues next week in Hong Kong, following the masterclass's initial workshop in the city last year. Strengthening city diplomacy's role for future solutions to global challenges. 🌎 #CityDiplomacy #Cooperation #FutureSolutions

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France’s Faux Pacific Power: The Colonial Reality in New Caledonia https://lnkd.in/gXWZyQw2 In terms of France’s broader Indo-Pacific engagement, the strategic implications of the New Caledonia uprising are profound both for Paris and its Western-aligned allies

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https://lnkd.in/eiQhsDGX #SriLanka has emerged as a critical geopolitical focal point over the past two decades, primarily due to its tilt towards China over other global powers, while China justifies its presence by emphasising the heavy reliance on trade routes passing through the #IndianOcean.  Security concerns, including the rise of piracy and the potential for military conflicts, further complicate the situation in the Indian Ocean region where India has secured rights to nab pirates even at mid-sea and try them in Indian Courts. The Indian Ocean holds significant economic potential in terms of resources, tourism, and trade. Balancing economic development with environmental protection is crucial for island nations. The future of the Indian Ocean hinges on effectively managing these competing interests. Cooperation and peaceful resolution of disputes are imperative for maintaining regional stability and fostering prosperity. Muizzu’s growing relations with China raise eyebrows The Maldives archipelago has recently attracted attention, especially with President Mohammed Muizzu’s vocal stance against India. While his strategic manoeuvring may have bolstered his electoral success, the broader implications of his actions have led India to adopt a silent stance. Muizzu’s indirect call for India to leave the Maldives extends to US allies, including France and EU nations, yet this doesn’t seem to concern him. Realistically, such a scenario is improbable given the Maldives’ heavy reliance on countries like #India, its immediate neighbour. The country’s dependence on India is shown by the fact that a disruption in onion imports from India could potentially lead to unrest. President #Muizzu’s rhetoric of “India Out” becomes further complicated by the substantial debt owed to India, amounting to approximately USD 1.5 billion obtained through Indian credit lines. #geopolitics

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I write at Centre For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)on Putin's recent visit to North Korea & what it means for the region? Excerpts from the article. Putin’s visit to North Korea is significant for several reasons. For Putin, this visit is a demonstration of Russia’s continued relevance on the global stage. Despite being indicted by the International Criminal Court and facing widespread isolation, Putin is leveraging his relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to show that Russia still has influential allies. This move can be seen as a defiant gesture towards the United States and the United Nations, emphasising Russia’s independence and resilience. Beyond symbolism, the visit has practical implications, particularly concerning military and technological cooperation. Russia, embroiled in a protracted conflict in Ukraine, is in dire need of military supplies. North Korea, with its vast arsenal of artillery, small arms, and mortars compatible with Russian systems, can provide the much-needed munitions to support Russia’s war efforts. From a strategic point of view, the United States is most concerned about the flow of weapons to Russia and China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Both China and the US are likely to be wary of Russia’s engagement in the region, particularly its visits to both North Korea and Vietnam. Some in Beijing may welcome the Russia-North Korea partnership as a counter to America’s global dominance. However, there is also significant discomfort in China. Beijing does not want to lose influence over North Korea to Russia, nor does it want a destabilising nuclear power on its border or the conflict in Europe spilling into Asia. Neither Beijing nor Washington would want a third entrant into their existing rivalry, as it would complicate the dynamic between them. From an Indian perspective, Putin’s visits to North Korea could have geopolitical implications. This development is likely to be viewed with unease by India, given North Korea’s historical connections to Pakistan’s missile capabilities. A stronger North Korea can be a thorn in China’s side. North Korea’s unpredictability and enhanced military capabilities, bolstered by Russian support, could strain China’s regional influence. This diversion could benefit India by weakening China’s strategic focus on its southern borders and the Indian Ocean, areas where China has been increasingly assertive. Much will depend on the trajectory of ties, but for New Delhi, the development poses new complications arising from the Ukraine war, and the effort to sideline Russia. https://lnkd.in/ggSnKjQq

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Amid ongoing India-China border tensions, how is Bhutan navigating its foreign policy challenges? Read our latest commentary to find out more about this delicate diplomatic balance: https://buff.ly/3WaQSMT

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The 11 Hybrid Regimes analyzed by #NationsInTransit 2024 are diverging along different paths as the 29-country region faces a geopolitical crossroads. For lasting democratic change, international partners will need to tailor their policies accordingly. 🔗: https://lnkd.in/g3_zPWmT

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❗️New Analysis❗️ Writing for The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Michael Reiterer explores the ways in which the liberal international order is at risk. He looks at how the emergence of rival blocs is hampering international cooperation in an era of economic competition. Read now🔸 https://lnkd.in/dg5e-_bs

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