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Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants

Despite some incredulous political pundits, the FiveThirtyEight statistician appears to have correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states in the presidential election.

Daniel Terdiman Former Senior Writer / News
Daniel Terdiman is a senior writer at CNET News covering Twitter, Net culture, and everything in between.
Daniel Terdiman
4 min read
Nate Silver at work, on his way to correctly predicting the winner in all 50 states. CBSNews.com

In the end, big data won.

Not the presidential election -- although there's no doubt that President Obama's victory tonight was aided by a sophisticated understanding of the American electorate born of years of analysis of voting trends and demographic shifts.

No, big data -- and its patron saint, Nate Silver -- won the battle to predict the outcome of the contest between Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Where breathless pundits brandishing equivocating polls shouted from the rooftops over the last few weeks that the race for the White House was a "tossup," or "too close to call," Silver and other poll aggregators sat back and calmly told anyone who would listen that the math told another story: Obama's re-election was never in danger.

CBS Sunday Morning profile of Nate Silver

To be sure, after the president's dismal performance in last month's first debate against Romney, his prospects dimmed somewhat. But those who regularly visited Silver's New York Times-hosted FiveThirtyEight blog -- and there's no getting around it: many Democrats lived on the site throughout the fall -- knew that Silver never pegged Obama's chances of victory at less than 61.1 percent.

To those unfamiliar with the notion of poll aggregation and more accustomed to gleaning their perceptions of the trajectory of presidential elections by following venerable polling organizations like Gallup, Silver's numbers never made any sense. With a wide variety of polls showing Obama struggling, and often trailing Romney nationally, how could someone who'd never even run a poll credibly tell the world that the president was actually comfortably ahead?

Indeed, critics of the notion of poll aggregating -- a complex system that analyzes hundreds of state and national polls in order to arrive at numbers that focused not on who would win the popular vote, but rather who would take the Electoral College -- increasingly echoed their skepticism as the calendar edged ever closer to November 6. No one more clearly voiced that skepticism than Politico's Dylan Byers who, on October 29, penned an incredulous article titled, "Nate Silver: One term celebrity?" In it, Byers wrote, "more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated."

Tonight, after seeing that FiveThirtyEight is poised to have correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states, Byers should be considering that maybe, just maybe, Silver knew what he was talking about.

Silver, of course, wasn't alone. There were at least four other prominent poll aggregators -- TPM's PollTracker, HuffPost Pollster, the RealClearPolitics Average, and the Princeton Election Consortium -- and all of them correctly predicted not just that Obama would emerge victorious tonight, but that he would dominate in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa. They all also correctly agreed that Romney would carry North Carolina. But just Silver and HuffPost Pollster went out on a limb and predicted that the president would take Florida, in both cases turning that state blue just one night ago.

Although pollsters like Gallup and Rasmussen Reports maintained until the end that Romney would win the national popular vote, many national polls did predict Obama's victory. And some critics of Silver's methods may point to that as proof that Silver got lucky in the end. As MSNBC's Joe Scarborough told Byers in the Politico story, "'Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance -- they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning."

But it's hard to argue with going 50 for 50 at the state level -- the only measures that really matter in a presidential election. Though Florida, Virginia, and Nevada are still formally too close to call as of this writing, the president is winning in each state.

And to be sure, Silver may not have been quite as accurate when it came to predicting the margins of victory at the national and state levels as he was in 2008. For example, as of this morning, he had Obama winning nationally by 2.5 percentage points, and in Ohio by 3.6 points. As of this writing, the president was winning nationally by just half a point, and in Ohio by two points or less.

Still, there can be little doubt that the methods used Silver and his aggregator brethren -- even RealClearPolitics, which did nothing more than average recent polls -- performed as advertised and gave those who believed in such a system ample reason to count on their accuracy in future elections.

Silver himself may have best summed up the difference between the computational underpinnings of his system and the critics who mocked it. "You may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected," he wrote on November 2. "I haven't come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a 'tossup.' What I find confounding about this is that the argument we're making is exceedingly simple. Here it is: Obama's ahead in Ohio."

And how did he know? Not through irrational belief or blind wishes. But through a painstaking analysis of every poll of the Buckeye State available to him, and 100,000 simulated elections that showed, when all was said and done, that the most crucial state in this year's election, one that Romney could not win without, was not the nailbiter many said it was, but rather a comfortable lead for the president.

Score one for the quants, especially the most famous one of them of all, a statistician who is now, unquestionably not a one term celebrity, but a political prediction machine to be taken very, very seriously.

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9 Ways You Can Help Yourself See Better at Night While Driving

After daylight savings time ends, many of us will have a dark commute home. Here are some ways to improve your night vision for driving.

Michelle Honeyager Contributor
Michelle is a contributor for CNET.
Michelle Honeyager
4 min read
Shunli Zhao/Getty Images

Daylight savings time is almost over, and that means more driving while it's dark. The fact that we lose an hour of daylight in fall may sound insignificant, but the end of daylight saving time results in a 16% increase in collisions with deer, according to a 2022 study. An increase in fatal car crashes following the end of daylight savings time was also observed in a published medical study from 1995 that reviewed data between 1987 and 1991.

With the extra hour of darkness during commute times, we need to adjust our habits to improve our ability to see at night. Learn why driving in the dark can be hazardous and how to see better and drive more safely after dark.

Why driving in the dark is harder

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Simply put, it's harder to see in low light. Other issues make things worse, like headlight glare and interior cab lighting. 

In the US, newer vehicles have brighter headlights, causing more glare and afterimages. Technology like LED bulbs and laser emitters make driving on the road at night akin to a strobe attack.

Some drivers inherently have a harder time adjusting to low light, such as older people and anyone with vision problems like nearsightedness, astigmatism or glaucoma.

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9 tips for safer driving at night

Luckily, there are a few simple ways to reduce vision problems when driving after dark.

Keep your windshield clean to reduce glare

Glare can increase when your windshield is dirty, as dirt disperses light. Certain treatments, like rain repellent, can also increase glare on your windshield at night. Keep your windshield as clear as possible to reduce glare and help visibility. AAA says a dirty windshield can also limit or obstruct your field of vision, and it recommends aiming for cleaning your windshield at least once a week.

Keep your headlights clean 

The Mayo Clinic says you can also help increase visibility by ensuring your headlights are free from dirt and debris.  Checking for clean headlights is especially important if you live in a dusty region or are in an area where hitting bugs is common. 

Use high beams when necessary

Be sure to use your high beams on rural roads near forests or fields, and as the National Safety Council recommends, on longer or wider stretches of road. High beams can help you see deer in these instances, but avoid using high beams in bad weather like rain or fog, as it can reduce visibility. Turn off high beams when going up hills or around bends to avoid shining high beams in other drivers' eyes.

Don't look directly at oncoming headlights

It may be instinctive to look directly at a flash of oncoming headlights coming over the hill or around a corner, but practice averting your gaze. Looking into bright headlights can temporarily impair your vision, and may also leave afterimages, making it harder to see once the vehicle has passed.

Check headlight alignment during car inspections

The Mayo Clinic also recommends working with your mechanic to ensure headlights are correctly aimed. Wear and tear on your car can cause misalignment, and some cars are manufactured with misaligned headlights. US laws don't require manufacturers to test alignment after the headlights are installed, according to NBC News. The result can be devastating glare for other nighttime drivers, plus reduced visibility for you.

Douglas Sacha/Getty Images

Dim your interior lights

Interior lights should always be off or dimmed when driving at night. They make your eyes more used to light, which can reduce your night vision (our eyes typically take a few minutes to adjust to darkness). If your interior lights are on to help you (or a passenger) see something inside your vehicle, it may add to the existing distractions. Interior lights are also one more light source to reflect off your windshield.

Keep your eyeglasses clean

Like dirt on a windshield, smudges on your glasses can disperse light and add to glare problems. Make sure to clean your eyewear properly, using a cloth made for eyeglasses, warm water or moisturizer-free mild dish soap, according to Heartland Optical. Wiping your glasses on your shirt may be a common practice, it can also introduce extra dirt and scratch lenses, obscuring vision further.

Read more: https://www.cnet.com/health/personal-care/best-places-to-buy-glasses-online/ Best Places to Buy Eyeglasses Online

health tips logo

Wear the right eyeglasses 

Keep up on those optometrist appointments so your doctor can confirm you're wearing the correct prescription. Also, you can look into anti-reflective lenses, which have a coating that decreases reflective light. Avoid eyeglass styles that obstruct peripheral vision. 

Other options include night driving glasses, which commonly have yellow lenses designed to reduce glare from headlights. Be sure to talk to your doctor before using them; some professionals think they could make your night vision worse instead of better.

Read more: Are You Squinting Right Now? It's Time to Get Your Vision Checked

Keep yourself alert for driving

Even small time changes can leave us feeling jet-lagged. Daylight saving time can throw off your circadian rhythm (that internal clock that tells you when to go to bed and when to stay up), according to Northwestern Medicine, and being tired can lead to blurred vision

Adjusting to the end of daylight saving time can help you be more alert for driving. Check out our guide to recalibrating your internal alarm clock.

The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as health or medical advice. Always consult a physician or other qualified health provider regarding any questions you may have about a medical condition or health objectives.

Today's NYT Connections Hints, Answers and Help for Nov. 4, #512

Here are some hints — and the answers — for Connections No. 512 for Nov. 4.

Gael Cooper
CNET editor Gael Fashingbauer Cooper, a journalist and pop-culture junkie, is co-author of "Whatever Happened to Pudding Pops? The Lost Toys, Tastes and Trends of the '70s and '80s," as well as "The Totally Sweet '90s." She's been a journalist since 1989, working at Mpls.St.Paul Magazine, Twin Cities Sidewalk, the Minneapolis Star Tribune, and NBC News Digital. She's Gen X in birthdate, word and deed. If Marathon candy bars ever come back, she'll be first in line.
Expertise Breaking news, entertainment, lifestyle, travel, food, shopping and deals, product reviews, money and finance, video games, pets, history, books, technology history, and generational studies Credentials
  • Co-author of two Gen X pop-culture encyclopedia for Penguin Books. Won "Headline Writer of the Year"​ award for 2017, 2014 and 2013 from the American Copy Editors Society. Won first place in headline writing from the 2013 Society for Features Journalism.
Gael Cooper
2 min read

Read on for the Connections answer.

James Martin/CNET

Looking for the most recent Connections answers? Click here for today's Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle and Strands puzzles.


Need the answers for the New York Times Connections puzzle? To me, Wordle is more of a vocabulary test, but Connections is more of a brainteaser. You're given 16 words and asked to put them into four groups that are somehow connected. Sometimes they're obvious, but game editor Wyna Liu knows how to trick you by using words that can fit into more than one group. Read on for today's Connections hints and answers.

There's also news in the Connections world. The Times now has a Connections Bot, like the one it's had for some time for Wordle. Go there after you play to receive a numeric score and to have the program analyze your answers. And players who are registered with the Times Games section can now nerd out by following their progress, including number of puzzles completed, win rate, number of times they nabbed a perfect score and their win streak.

Read more: Hints, Tips and Strategies to Help You Win at NYT Connections Every Time

How to play Connections

Playing is easy. Winning is hard. Look at the 16 words and mentally assign them to related groups of four. Click on the four words you think go together. The groups are coded by color, though you don't know what goes where until you see the answers. The yellow group is the easiest, then green, then blue, and purple is the toughest. Look at the words carefully and think about related terms. Sometimes the connection has to do with just a part of the word. Once, four words were grouped because each started with the name of a rock band, including "Rushmore" and "Journeyman."

Read more: New NYT Connections Game for Sports Fans Lets Players Swing for the Fences

Hints for today's Connections groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today's Connections puzzle, ranked from the easiest, yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: Deck out

Green group hint: What makes you stand out

Blue group hint: Bureau is one

Purple group hint: Wont is another one

Answers for today's Connections groups

Yellow group: Equip

Green group: Individuality

Blue group: Furniture

Purple group: Words with apostrophes removed

Read more: Wordle Cheat Sheet: Here Are the Most Popular Letters Used in English Words

What are today's Connections answers?

The completed NYT Connections puzzle for Nov. 4, 2024.

NYT/Screenshot by CNET

The yellow words in today's Connections

The theme is equip. The four answers are furnish, outfit, provision and stock.

The green words in today's Connections

The theme is individuality. The four answers are being, character, ego and self.

The blue words in today's Connections

The theme is furniture. The four answers are chest, console, vanity and wardrobe.

The purple words in today's Connections

The theme is words with apostrophes removed. The four answers are cant, id, shell and were.


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Should You Rinse Pasta After Cooking? We Asked an Italian Chef

There are plenty of pasta-making mistakes and misnomers swirling about. We asked a pro chef to name the biggest offenses.

Joey Skladany
Joey is a writer/editor, TV/radio personality, lifestyle expert, former entertainment publicist and author of "Basic Bitchen." His written work has been featured in major food and travel outlets, and he is an on-air contributor for the Today Show. In his spare time, he enjoys volleyball, the beach, interior design and perfecting his stand-up comedy routine.
Expertise Kitchen Tools, Appliances, Meal Kits, Food Science, Subscriptions
Joey Skladany
4 min read

Rinsing pasta after cooking may not be the special trick we all thought it was. 

Getty Images

If you're running your pasta under water after it's done cooking, we know an Italian chef who would like a word. And if you think adding olive to your pasta water will keep the noodles from sticking, think again. 

Americans eat roughly 20 pounds of the Italian staple per year, making it one of the most widely consumed foods by weight. All that pasta cooking has inspired some interesting theories about how to make it better, faster and easier. Unfortunately, some of our favorite pasta hacks may not be doing what we think -- or worse, compromising the finished product.

To find out if rinsing pasta is wise, and to learn about other pasta-making mistakes we might be making, we grilled Filippo de Marchi, the chef de cuisine at De Majo Restaurant & Terrace. Marchi named seven myths or mistakes that are thought to help when making penne, linguini or lasagna but have no real benefit or function.

"Cooking pasta isn't difficult at all. It's all about timing and the right water-to-pasta ratio," he says. "Don't fall into the trap of believing in pasta myths. Just trust your instincts and follow basic instructions."

Here are seven biggest pasta mistakes we're all making and why we should stop, according to someone who knows.

1. Throwing pasta against a wall to see if it sticks proves it's done

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"This isn't the best way to check for doneness," says de Marchi. "The texture of the pasta can change when it hits the wall, and it doesn't give an accurate indication of whether it's properly cooked."

Instead, it's more accurate to scoop out a single strand and taste it. You'll then be able to tell if it's achieved that perfect al dente texture. 

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2. Adding olive oil to pasta water

Olive oil in your water isn't the best fix for sticky pasta.

Alina Bradford/CNET

Olive oil is a necessary addition to most pasta dishes, but save it for the plate. 

Some folks think it will help keep pasta from sticking when added to boiling past water but "the oil just floats on top of the water and doesn't coat the pasta effectively," says de Marchi. "The best way to prevent sticking is to use plenty of water, stir the pasta regularly during the first few minutes of cooking and make sure to use the right size pot for the amount of pasta you're cooking.

"This way, the pasta has enough space to move around and cook evenly," he adds. 

3. Assuming fresh pasta is always better than dry

Chef's take: FALSE 

Fresh pasta has good PR but some dried pasta is just as tasty.

Goldbelly

It's all about personal preference. Fresh, dry or frozen; chefs aren't here to dictate what your taste buds like and don't like. 

"Fresh pasta has a softer texture and cooks quickly, making it perfect for delicate sauces," says the chef. "On the other hand, dry pasta has a firmer texture and holds up well with hearty or thicker sauces."

De Marchi also compares it to choosing between two great actors for a movie role. "The choice depends on the character they're portraying," he says, "just like the choice between fresh and dry pasta depends on the dish you're making." 

4. Leaving the pot covered while the pasta is cooking

Stopping your pot from boiling over can be as easy as putting a wooden spoon across the top.

JannHuizenga/Getty Images

"Leaving the lid off the pot while the pasta is cooking is the way to go," advises de Marchi. "This prevents the water from boiling over and helps control the cooking process. Plus, it allows the steam to escape, which helps prevent the water from foaming up and making a starchy mess." 

As recommended, be sure to also pick an appropriately sized pot so that your pasta cooks evenly. 

5. Adding salt and thinking it will help the water boil faster

Salt won't get your pasta water boiling significantly faster.

Morton Salt/Amazon

Salt plays an important role in pasta water, but not when it comes to heat. (Impurities do change the boiling point of water, but the amount of salt you add to pasta water doesn't make a significant difference.) Rather, it's essential to add salt so that the pasta can absorb its flavor. 

"If you're cooking without enough salt, the pasta can end up tasting a bit bland," warns de Marchi, whose signature dish at NHC Murano Villa is a spaghetti alle vongole. The seafood dish, which hails from the region of ocean-adjacent Venice, is a combination of vongole (typically clams, garlic, white wine and chili flakes), sea asparagus and lemon zest. 

6. Draining pasta until it's completely dry

Some pasta water will help the sauce adhere.

Ototo/Amazon

There is a reason why salted pasta water is held in such high regard. Not only does it contain a delicious brine to enhance sauces, but it also helps the sauce adhere to the pasta itself. 

"This creates a more cohesive and flavorful dish," argues De Marchi. "A little moisture can go a long way in making your pasta dish extra tasty." 

7. Running cooked pasta under water before serving

Running your pasta under water removes much of the starchy goodness.

David Watsky/CNET

If you want to subject yourself to a potential injury via a rolling pin or wooden spoon by Nonna, run your cooked pasta under fresh water. 

"This can remove the starchy coating that helps the sauce adhere to the pasta," says de Marchi. "The residual heat from the pasta helps the sauce to marry with the pasta, creating a more flavorful and cohesive dish. Think of it like a beautiful marriage -- you want the sauce and the pasta to come together and live happily ever after, not to undergo a cold shower right before serving." 

8. Precooking sheets of lasagna

Not all lasagna recipes require precooked noodles.

CNET

"Precooking lasagna sheets isn't always necessary, especially if you're using a sauce with plenty of moisture," he says. "In fact, many lasagna recipes call for using the sheets directly without precooking, allowing them to absorb liquid from the sauce and cook during the baking process."

Set it, forget it and let the magic happen in the oven. Pasta is not something to overthink or stress over. Its simple preparation makes it all the more enjoyable.



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