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US election: When will we know who won?

US election: When will we know who won?

Election workers process absentee ballots at Portland City Hall on Monday, Nov 4, 2024, in Portland, Maine. (Photo: AP/David Sharp)

WASHINGTON: As Americans prepare to vote on Election Day on Tuesday (Nov 5), officials are calling for patience as they tally ballots in what could be a historically close presidential race - and warning that it could take days to find out who has won.

Under the US system, citizens do not vote directly for their leader. Instead, their ballots elect the 538 members of a group called the Electoral College, which then elects the president and vice president.

Each state casts its Electoral College votes for the candidate that won its popular vote. Bigger states, with more representatives in the US Congress, get a larger share of the 538 Electoral College votes on offer.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump will be vying to get to the all-important 270 votes that pushes them past the halfway mark and guarantees them the keys to the Oval Office.

But with this year's race going down to the wire, experts point to a growing risk of delays and complications like legal challenges over the vote count.

Around 81 million people have voted ahead of Tuesday, over half of the total ballots cast in 2020.

HOW LONG IS THE COUNT?

The first polls close at 6pm Eastern Time (7am Singapore time) but when the race is tight, it could take days before a victor is projected.

In 2020, US media declared Democratic candidate Joe Biden the winner on Nov 7, although polls closed four days before.

In 2016 and 2012, voters had a shorter wait.

After votes are cast, local election officials, who may be appointed or elected, process and count them. Tallying methods vary from one location to the next.

Many states have changed election laws to allow mail-in or overseas votes to be prepared for counting ahead of Election Day, although Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not made similar changes.

Both are battlegrounds that could swing towards either party. With mail-in ballots not allowed to be processed until Nov 5, this could slow counting.

Especially close vote counts can also trigger recounts.

WHO CERTIFIES IT?

Rather than waiting for winners to be declared by local authorities, US news outlets call races based on what they see in the voting.

But this process is not official and results still have to be certified at the state level, with every ballot accounted for.

The deadline for states to certify their results is Dec 11, and each state's appointed electors then cast their votes for the candidate who won in their popular vote.

By Dec 25, electoral certificates of each state must be received by the president of the Senate, who is also Vice President Harris.

On Jan 6, Congress counts and confirms the results, before the new president is inaugurated on Jan 20.

WHAT MAY CAUSE DELAYS?

Certification is a formality, but experts warn that there are growing risks of obstructions.

At least 22 county election officials voted in 2022 to delay certification in battleground states, Brookings experts noted in a commentary last month.

This was nearly a 30 per cent increase from 2020.

At least 35 election officials have "refused to certify election results and may be in a position to do so again", according to Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).

Successful obstruction could impact state and federal certification deadlines, the campaign group warned.

The certification process has come under scrutiny and been especially politicised since Trump refused to concede the 2020 election.

In that race, dozens of legal challenges by Trump and his allies were tossed out by the courts.

There has been a deluge of lawsuits from both parties ahead of Election Day, which might also complicate the tabulation.

Source: AFP/nh

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US judge declines to block Musk's US$1 million election giveaways

US judge declines to block Musk's US$1 million election giveaways

Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks during a rally for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden in New York, US, on Oct 27, 2024. (File photo: Reuters/Carlos Barria)

PHILADELPHIA: A Pennsylvania judge declined on Monday (Nov 4) to halt billionaire Elon Musk's US$1 million giveaways to registered voters in United States election battleground states.

Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, sued Musk and his pro-Trump political action committee, America PAC, last week, calling the US$1 million awards "an illegal lottery scheme".

Krasner had asked that the daily giveaways be shut down, but Common Pleas Court Judge Angelo Foglietta declined to do so after a daylong hearing on Monday featuring Musk's lawyers and prosecutors.

Foglietta did not immediately provide a reason for his decision, though no more giveaways were planned in Pennsylvania.

Musk did not attend Monday's hearing.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO promised last month to give away US$1 million daily until Election Day. According to the America PAC website, 16 people, including four in Pennsylvania, have received the US$1 million awards so far.

The Justice Department warned Musk and his America PAC last month that the sweepstakes may violate federal law, which prohibits paying people to register to vote.

Musk, 53, who also owns X, formerly Twitter, has thrown his millions, time and considerable influence into backing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump since endorsing him in July.

Musk, the world's richest man, has reportedly donated at least US$118 million to his political action committee, an organisation that collects funds for elections.

He has also appeared on stage with Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania and hosted a series of town halls on his own in the eastern state, seen as critical in Tuesday's election.

Musk, who previously supported Barack Obama but has become increasingly conservative in recent years, peppers his 202 million followers on X daily with messages championing Trump and denigrating his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

Source: AFP/rl

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New mpox strain detected in UK spreads to household contacts of first case

The clade 1b variant is a new form of the virus that is linked to a global health emergency declared by the WHO in August.

New mpox strain detected in UK spreads to household contacts of first case
Mpox clade 1b has also been reported in Germany, Sweden, India and Thailand. (File photo: Reuters)

LONDON: Britain has detected two more cases of the new mpox variant clade 1b in household contacts of the first case, the country's health security agency (UKHSA) said on Monday (Nov 4), bringing the total number of confirmed cases to three.

The government agency added that the risk to the population remained low. The clade 1b variant is a new form of the virus that is linked to a global health emergency declared by the World Health Organization in August.

"Mpox is very infectious in households with close contact and so it is not unexpected to see further cases within the same household," UKHSA said.

UKHSA said last week that the first case, in a patient who had recently travelled to affected countries in Africa, was detected in London and the individual has been transferred to a specialist hospital.

The two new patients are also under specialist care in the city, UKHSA said, adding that healthcare professionals are equipped and prepared to respond to any further confirmed cases.

Nineteen African countries have seen more than 48,000 suspected mpox cases, including 1,048 deaths so far this year, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), with cases in the continent surging by 500 per cent from last year.

Mpox clade 1b has also been reported in Germany, Sweden, India and Thailand.

It is a different form of the virus from clade 2, which spread globally in 2022, largely among men who have sex with men.

Mpox is a viral infection that typically causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions, and while usually mild it can kill. Clade 1b is thought to cause more severe disease than clade 2.

Both forms can be transmitted through close physical contact, including sexual contact.

Source: Reuters/cm

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How the next American president could affect ties between India and the US

As the Nov 5 US presidential election draws closer, observers in India said they believe relations between the two nations are set to change, no matter who wins the race to the White House.

How the next American president could affect ties between India and the US

President Joe Biden, joined by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and also Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, speaks about a Quadrilateral Cancer Moonshot initiative on the sidelines of the Quad leaders summit at Archmere Academy in Claymont, Del., Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

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NEW DELHI: For years, leather products manufacturer Alpine Apparels could export goods to the United States tariff-free under a voluntary trade measure known as the generalised system of preferences (GSP).

That came to a halt in 2019, when the Trump administration withdrew special trade privileges for India – and they have not been reinstated since.

Mr Sanjay Leekha, Alpine Group’s founder and chairman, is now worried that another Trump presidency will spell more bad news for Indian exporters like his.

"When the GSP went away, it increased our landing cost into the US by about 4 to 6 per cent, which is a substantial cost,” he told CNA.

As the final countdown begins to the US election on Tuesday (Nov 5), observers in India said they believe the ties between both nations are set to change, no matter who wins the race to the White House.

Trump, who was president from 2017 to 2021, has called India a "big abuser of American tariffs".

His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is expected to continue the approach of President Joe Biden, who previously described the US-India relationship as “the most defining of the decade”.

But analysts said her outspokenness on human rights might cause tensions with Indian President Narendra Modi's government.

INDIA’S TIES WITH US UNDER BIDEN

India exports far more to the US than it imports, putting the bilateral trade deficit at over US$45 billion in New Delhi’s favour.

Experts agreed that the last four years of Biden's presidency have brought more stability on the trade and strategic front. He embraced New Delhi wholeheartedly, hosting Modi on his first state visit to the US this year.

During Biden's tenure, both countries also settled outstanding trade disputes, with the US beginning to share critical technology with India to manufacture defence hardware.

Biden's key aim was to help equip India to take on China in the region, said analysts. They added this was why he also prioritised strengthening the QUAD – a diplomatic grouping of Australia, Japan, India and the US.

"Biden has worked pretty systematically to build institutional groups, to create a better balance (in the region),” said Meera Shanker, who served as India’s ambassador to the US in 2009.

She added that should Trump win the election, it would be best that he at least maintains the status quo. 

“But if he decides to disrupt the functioning of (the alliances and processes), then it would be a fairly unstable situation,” she noted.

Analysts have said that Trump may not continue the Biden administration's security strategy in the region, although he is expected to be harder on China on trade issues.

President Joe Biden greets from left, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Biden, and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, at the Quad leaders summit at Archmere Academy in Claymont, Del., Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR INDIA

Shanker said both Trump and Harris could pose different challenges for New Delhi.

Harris first met Modi in 2021 and publicly raised the issue of human rights – a topic that had previously only been discussed behind closed doors.

Analysts also said she could exert more pressure over India’s continued engagement with Russia. New Delhi imports two-fifths of its oil from Russia, and has so far refused to publicly criticise Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

“We have China as a neighbour. We have Pakistan as a neighbour, and beyond that, Central Asia and Russia,” noted Shanker.

“Clearly, if there are difficulties with one great power in the neighbourhood, India would like to have the flexibility to have good relations with the other great power and not push it completely into the Chinese corner. So I think the US will have to take a hard look at this.”

“TARIFFS ARE NOT HERE TO STAY”

Meanwhile, Trump has said he will hit hard if he is elected to serve a second term. Last month, he alleged that India imposes the highest tariffs on foreign products and vowed to introduce a reciprocal tax.

He has also often accused India of not allowing American firms to access the subcontinent's vast market using high-tariff barriers.

However, experts say this policy is aimed at giving domestic companies a fair chance to compete with their better-skilled American counterparts.

“Tariffs are not here to stay. Probably the government wants to provide a kind of 3-to-4-year framework to these companies, so they scale up. The moment they scale up and they break even, the tariffs will come down,” said Dr Ajai Sahai, director-general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

ASSASSINATION PLOTS

Separately, there have been little clues on how Trump and Harris would react to recent allegations of Indian officials being involved in assassination plots in the US, and how this would affect diplomatic ties under either’s presidency. 

Last month, the US Justice Department announced criminal charges against a former Indian government employee – Vikash Yadav, who remains at large. Washington alleges that he was involved in a murder-for-hire plot on US soil that was ultimately foiled.

Canada has made similar allegations involving Indian envoys in a year-long row that has soured relations.

Following the murder of a Canadian citizen in Vancouver last year, Canada alleged that Indian government agents were involved, culminating in both countries expelling each other’s top diplomats on Oct 14.

Experts say the incoming US administration, whether led by Trump or Harris, could come under pressure to demand more public accountability from India – adding a new hurdle to bilateral ties.
Source: CNA/lt(dn)

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