Supported by
Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find
Donald J. Trump has improved his standing in Pennsylvania even as late-deciding voters appear to be breaking for Kamala Harris.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Oct. 24 to Nov. 2
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
Lisa Lerer reported from Norristown, Pa., and Ruth Igielnik reported from New York.
The presidential race appears to be hurtling toward a photo finish, with the final set of polls by The New York Times and Siena College finding Vice President Kamala Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia as former President Donald J. Trump erases her lead in Pennsylvania and maintains his advantage in Arizona.
It has been decades since the polls have shown the nation facing a presidential race that is so close across so many states in both the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt. The tightly contested landscape means the race remains highly uncertain as the campaign enters its final hours.
Ms. Harris is now narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, the polls show, while Mr. Trump leads in Arizona. The polls show them locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the results in all seven states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead in any of them.
[While the overall poll result is largely unchanged since previous Times/Siena polls, there were some notable shifts, Nate Cohn writes.]
Both candidates have multiple pathways available to capture the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, assuming that polls are not dramatically underestimating the support for one or the other. In such a close race, even a small systemic polling error could tip the contest decisively in either direction.
But there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Ms. Harris: Among the 8 percent of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55 percent to 44 percent. (With Election Day nearing, 11 percent of voters remained undecided or persuadable, down from 16 percent about a month ago.)
How Polls in the Rust Belt States Compare
| Mich. | Pa. | Wis. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Oct. 25-Nov. 2 | Trump +1 | Even | Harris +3 |
| Polling average As of 5 a.m. Nov. 3 | Harris <1 | Even | Harris <1 |
| AtlasIntel Nov. 1-2 | Trump +2 | Trump +2 | Trump +1 |
| USA Today/Suffolk University Oct. 24-27; Oct. 27-30; Oct. 20-23 | Even | Even | Trump +1 |
| The Washington Post Oct. 24-28; Oct. 26-30 | Harris +1 | Harris +1 | No poll |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA Oct. 24-28 | Harris +3 | No poll | No poll |
| Quinnipiac University Oct. 17-21; Oct. 24-28 | Harris +4 | Trump +2 | Even |
| CNN/SSRS Oct. 23-28 | Harris +5 | Even | Harris +6 |
| Fox News/Beacon & Shaw Oct. 24-28 | Even | Trump +1 | No poll |
| Monmouth University Oct. 24-28 | No poll | Trump +1 | No poll |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Oct. 23-27; Oct. 18-22 | Harris +5 | Even | No poll |
| Marquette Law School Oct. 16-24 | No poll | No poll | Harris +1 |
How Polls in the Sun Belt States Compare
| Ariz. | Nev. | Ga. | N.C. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Oct. 25-Nov. 2 | Trump +4 | Harris +3 | Harris +1 | Harris +3 |
| Polling average As of 5 a.m. Nov. 3 | Trump +3 | Trump <1 | Trump +1 | Trump <1 |
| AtlasIntel Nov. 1-2 | Trump +7 | Trump +6 | Trump +3 | Trump +3 |
| RealClearWorld/Emerson College Oct. 29-31 | No poll | Even | No poll | No poll |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Oct. 28-31 | No poll | Trump +6 | No poll | No poll |
| Data Orbital Oct. 26-28 | Trump +8 | No poll | No poll | No poll |
| Fox News/Beacon & Shaw Oct. 24-28 | No poll | No poll | No poll | Trump +1 |
| CNN/SSRS Oct. 21-26; Oct. 23-28 | Harris +1 | Trump +1 | Trump +1 | Harris +1 |
Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.
An earlier version of this article misspelled the given name of a Nevada Senator. She is Jacky Rosen, not Jackie.
When we learn of a mistake, we acknowledge it with a correction. If you spot an error, please let us know at nytnews@nytimes.com.Learn more
Lisa Lerer is a national political reporter for The Times, based in New York. She has covered American politics for nearly two decades. More about Lisa Lerer
Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results. More about Ruth Igielnik
Related Content
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
Editors’ Picks
Bryan Bedder/Getty Images
NBCUniversal
Dolly Faibyshev for The New York Times
Trending in The Times
Clark Hodgin for The New York Times
Kenny Holston/The New York Times
Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office
NBC, via Getty Images; bottom left: Don Hogan Charles/The New York Times
Getty Images
Lauren Segal for The New York Times
David J. Phillip/Associated Press
John Nacion/Getty Images
Advertisement