Within a few months, and certainly before Christmas, judging by two separate sources which have been keeping tabs on sales (as opposed to distribution) of the latest generation of consoles since the Xbox 360 came on the scene around Christmas 2005. So far, according to nexgenwars.com, the Xbox 360 has sold around 11m units, while the Wii has sold 7.7m and the Sony PlayStation 3 (launched at about the same time as the Wii) just 3.3m. The site is running its own real-time estimates of sales: as you watch, the site updates, and with the figure for the Wii ticking over at roughly twice the speed of that for the Xbox, a takeover is obviously close at hand.
A separate tab is being kept at VGChartz.com, which has a different set of numbers - 10m for the Xbox 360, 8.17m for the Wii and 3.42m for the PS3. But the variations in figures are within the sorts of tolerance limits that makes it clear that while the Xbox 360 is performing modestly, the Wii is still flying off the shelves while the PS3 sits rather lumpenly upon them. That too comes while Nintendo is still struggling to meet demand: supplies go as soon as they reach shops, suggesting that the line on the graph above will take off even more quickly once Nintendo's suppliers can ramp up their output.
For Microsoft, though, the longevity of the Xbox 360 is attracting questions about reliability and the possibility of a price drop. Microsoft isn't happy talking about the reliability issue, also known as the "red ring of death" (What is the real failure rate of the Xbox 360, May 31). Last week Todd Holmdahl, Microsoft's corporate vice-president of the gaming and Xbox products group - and the person ultimately responsible for its quality - spent a long time not answering any questions (tinyurl.com/yqtm4w). For instance, when challenged that the failure rate is too high, he responded: "We think the vast majority of people are having just a great experience ... They love the box. They continue to buy the box. That said, we take any customer issue very seriously." And is the return [failure] rate 2%, 5%, more? "We don't disclose the actual number." Not even in relation to the original Xbox. In fact, the clearest message from the interview is that Holmdahl doesn't do interviews.
But what are the lessons of Nintendo's imminent appearance in pole position in the next-generation console wars? By considering the contenders, the answer seems to be threefold. First, being expensive means that only the rich or cossetted can afford you, and there aren't enough of them to create a viable market. (The Wii is the cheapest of the three consoles, the PS3 the most expensive.) Second, being first to market is a terrific advantage which does reap rewards (the episodic content for Grand Theft Auto 4 will only be available on the Xbox 360, not the PS3, Gamesindustry.biz confirmed this week). Third, because there are far more undedicated gamers than dedicated ones, any console that can appeal to the former will outsell the latter. Nintendo calls this tactic "moving into the blue ocean" (where there are no competitors). While its competitors look to be taking on water, the Wii is sailing on. Can anything stop it now?
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