A guide to the 7 battleground states that could swing the election

No state looms larger in the 2024 election than Pennsylvania. Not only is it the biggest electoral-vote prize among the battleground states, but it was the tipping-point state in 2020, and the winner might need to carry only two other battleground states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

1. Philadelphia metro

5 counties

2012

Obama by 616K

2016

Clinton by 664K

2020

Biden by 764K

This is the most heavily Democratic area of the state, and the Philadelphia suburbs saw some of the biggest swings in 2020, moving four percentage points toward Biden. The city of Philadelphia, however, actually moved modestly toward Trump, even though Biden still won it handily. The former owes to the role White, college-educated voters played in backing the Democratic ticket in 2020 — while the latter may be best explained by working-class voters drifting toward the Republican Party, something we’ve seen happen in Philadelphia since at least the 2012 presidential election. In 2024, the suburbs will be especially significant once again, given that they voted more Democratic in 2020 than they did in either 2016 or 2012. Democrats hope those areas will continue to drift their way as they also seek to avoid further losses in Philadelphia itself.

2. Pittsburgh metro

7 counties

2012

Romney by 14K

2016

Trump by 58K

2020

Trump by 30K

The picture in the state’s second-largest vote center was the opposite of Philadelphia’s. The more urban areas of Allegheny County moved toward Biden while the nearby suburban counties went marginally more for Trump, which was unusual nationwide. Part of the explanation is that, unlike in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh’s biggest suburbs are largely contained in the same county, Allegheny. And the more distant suburban counties outside of Pittsburgh are more similar to smaller, more rural counties than the Philadelphia suburbs. What happened in the Pittsburgh area in 2020 is a good reminder that “the suburbs” is a broad term that can apply to many different types of areas with different demographics, but they broadly pose a challenge to Trump.

3. The stretch between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg

4 counties

2012

Romney by 61K

2016

Trump by 98K

2020

Trump by 108K

Many of the state’s biggest swings were toward Democrats in 2020, but Trump nearly held the state by expanding his margins in small cities and rural areas again. And those areas combine for a lot; the rural counties statewide gave Trump a nearly 240,000-vote gain over the GOP’s 2012 performance — bigger than Democrats’ gains in both urban and suburban areas combined. Key counties include those between Pittsburgh and Harrisburg like Blair, Cambria, Clearfield and Franklin counties, which have relatively large populations and swung for Trump more than other rural counties. If Trump can keep growing his margins in these counties, it could offset any edge Democrats have in the suburbs.

Path to victory

For a Harris winHarris will hope to keep moving the suburbs in Democrats’ direction and ideally bank more votes in Philadelphia, where the Democratic share has fallen from 85 percent in 2012 to 82 percent in 2016 to 81 percent in 2020. That 2012 election was, of course, the last time Democrats had a Black candidate leading the ticket. But the Democratic drop-off in the city demonstrated Trump’s increasing appeal to voters without college degrees of all races, which could help him further in 2024.

For a Trump winTrump’s most apparent path to winning the state is in clawing back some of his biggest declines in 2020 in suburban areas, particularly the Philadelphia suburbs, while continuing to expand his margins in the rural areas, which have trended steadily red since 2012.

No swing state swung more for Democrats in 2020 than Georgia. Trump won it by more than 200,000 votes in 2016, while Biden won it by a little under 12,000 in 2020.

That Democratic victory was fueled by the fast-growing Atlanta suburbs, which appear to have recast the state. Democrats won both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats in an early 2021 runoff election, and held the one up for election in 2022. There is some question, though, about whether things will continue trending in Democrats’ direction. Republicans did well here in 2022, winning every statewide race except the one for Senate.

1. Atlanta

2012

Obama by 118K

2016

Clinton by 179K

2020

Biden by 243K

There are five core counties that make up the Atlanta metro region, but the most important of the five is Fulton. That’s not just because it’s the largest but because it’s given Democrats huge gains in recent elections. Key cities include Sandy Springs, Roswell and Johns Creek. These three affluent suburbs, all north of Atlanta, are among the dozen largest cities in population statewide and all swung 33 points or more toward Democrats between 2012 and 2020 — bigger than the already large swings in nearby suburbs. And notably, there’s still room for Democrats to grow, given they carried the last two cities — Roswell and Johns Creek — by 10 points or less in the most recent election and could seemingly carry them by more.

2. Clayton County

2012

Obama by 67K

2016

Clinton by 66K

2020

Biden by 80K

Among the five core counties in the Atlanta metro area, this large, heavily Black one to the south is notable in that it has provided Democrats with their smallest gains in recent years. Clinton won it by fewer votes than Barack Obama had, before Biden expanded Democrats’ margin of victory in 2020. Democrats don’t have as much room to grow here, given they already win around 85 percent of the vote, but they’ll want to match their 2020 margins rather than their 2016 ones.

3. Muscogee County

2012

Obama by 15K

2016

Clinton by 13K

2020

Biden by 19K

This county, which includes Columbus and has a population that is half Black, showed similar shifts to those of Clayton County in both 2016 and 2020. It was joined by a bunch of rural counties in and near Georgia’s share of the “Black Belt,” including Dougherty, Lee and Sumter, that bucked other rural counties by moving toward Biden. If Trump can’t do better here and he continues to lose ground in the suburbs, it’s hard to see how he wins Georgia.

4. Bartow County and Carroll County

2 counties

2012

Romney by 34K

2016

Trump by 39K

2020

Trump by 47K

These relatively populous rural counties epitomize Trump’s gains in other rural areas of the state. He has gotten between 70 and 80 percent of the vote in them and netted 13,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Path to victory

For a Harris winThe suburbs swung huge for Biden, but he only managed to eke out a win in the state. Harris could have more to gain in them, but she needs to hope they again rival Atlanta itself as a source of votes — and that Trump’s performance in rural areas doesn’t offset any gains there.

For a Trump winNational polls have shown Trump gaining with Black voters. If that holds, it could make a big difference in Georgia, which is about one-third Black. To be clear, Trump won’t win Black voters overall, but if he can hold down Harris’s margins, that could go a long way toward keeping the Atlanta area competitive. It might also mean he does better in rural Black counties like Muscogee where he lost ground in 2020. If he does that and continues to win big in other rural areas, that would probably be sufficient for him to win the state.

North Carolina might be the most surprising swing state in 2024. It’s the only one of the seven we’re focusing on that favored Trump in 2020, and Democrats haven’t won it since 2008.

But it is still a battleground state. In each of the last three elections, it’s been decided by less than four points — just one point in 2020. And this year, several tight polls show that Trump’s lead here is smaller than it is in Arizona and Georgia, which both unexpectedly ended up in Democrats’ column in 2020. Rapid changes in the state’s voting patterns make it a real wild card in the 2024 race.

1. Raleigh and Charlotte

3 counties

2012

Obama by 234K

2016

Clinton by 338K

2020

Biden by 479K

One thing you’ll notice from the maps above is that these areas featured large blue arrows in both 2016 and 2020. That means they trended a lot toward Democrats in both elections — a relative rarity nationwide. Democrats’ edge in them increased by 210,000 votes combined in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) and Wake County (Raleigh) over those two elections. That’s a huge swing in a state that was decided by less than that in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats’ consistent large gains in them — which was also the case in smaller Durham County — appear to owe to their large, more-educated electorates.

2. Buncombe County and Swain County

2 counties

2012

Obama by 16K

2016

Clinton by 18K

2020

Biden by 33K

Buncombe and Swain are two of the more populous counties in western North Carolina, and they should say plenty about the electoral impact of Hurricane Helene, which disproportionately hit Republican-leaning areas. Buncombe, which is home to Asheville, is the main Democratic vote center in the area and swung toward Democrats much more in 2020 than in 2016. In Swain on the other hand, Trump gained votes in both elections. Republicans will hope that turnout doesn’t fall in the broader area, as it has after some other major hurricanes.

3. Robeson, Davidson and Randolph counties

3 counties

2012

Romney by 52K

2016

Trump by 74K

2020

Trump by 92K

Trump’s gains in the last two elections have been spread out among the state’s many rural counties. But three stand out: Robeson, Davidson and Randolph. Robeson in particular is interesting as a former Democratic stronghold near Wilmington that has trended strongly toward the GOP, even as it includes one of the most broadly diverse populations of any county in the United States. The GOP under Trump has gained 16,000 votes in two elections there, along with 24,000 votes combined in Davidson and Randolph counties in the middle of the state.

Path to victory

For a Harris winIt’s all about expanding her margins in the populous urban centers, while hoping they’re enough to offset losses elsewhere and avoiding yet another near miss in North Carolina. A well-run hurricane response from the federal government could also seemingly move some votes.

For a Trump winTrump might not be able to rely on his continued gains in the rural areas, given how fast the more populous areas are growing. He’ll want to halt the trends in the latter. He gained a lot fewer votes among less-educated voters in 2020 (about 100,000 among those without college degrees) than Biden gained among those with college degrees (nearly 200,000). And with North Carolina continuing to trend toward a more-educated electorate in those populous areas, Trump will want to put a dent in that growing gap.

Among the northern swing states that make up the “Blue Wall,” Michigan might provide the most fertile territory for Democrats, judging by their success in recent statewide and state legislative races. In 2020, the state was Biden’s biggest battleground win, going for him by 2.8 points.

Trump won in 2016 by a slim 0.2 points, but before that Michigan had gone blue for the past 30 years and was actually the 13th bluest state in the country in 2008. The key question of the 2024 election is whether 2016 was an aberration or Trump has more permanently redrawn the political map here.

1. Detroit

2012

Obama by 382K

2016

Clinton by 290K

2020

Biden by 332K

Neither Clinton in 2016 nor Biden in 2020 were able to get close to the margins Obama racked up in Wayne County. They fell 10 and nine points shy of Obama’s 2012 margins, respectively. Democrats might feel better here with a Black nominee atop the ticket again, but Republican gains with working-class voters loom large, as do Democratic divisions over the war in Gaza. Wayne County is home to the country’s largest Arab American population, with nearly 8 percent identifying as having Middle Eastern or North African ancestry.

2. Oakland County and Macomb County

2 counties

2012

Obama by 69K

2016

Clinton by 6K

2020

Biden by 68K

The tales of these two suburban counties outside of Detroit differ significantly. Oakland, with a majority of voters having college degrees, gave Biden his biggest gain in 2020, expanding Democrats’ margins by 54,000 votes over 2016. (That by itself was about five times Trump’s winning 2016 margin.) However, Macomb, which has a far less formally educated base, gave Trump his biggest gains in 2016 — 65,000 votes — but he actually lost some ground there in 2020, as Democrats expanded their vote share in the suburbs nationwide. Oakland is the kind of area that might keep trending away from Trump, but hanging tough in Macomb will say a lot about Trump’s prospects.

3. Kent County

2012

Romney by 23K

2016

Trump by 10K

2020

Biden by 22K

Biden flipped the state’s second-largest metro area from a nearly 10,000-vote Trump win in 2016 to a 22,000-vote Democratic margin in 2020. Outside of Oakland County, it’s provided Democrats’ most consistent gains in recent years, owing to its more urban population.

4. Upper Peninsula

3 counties

2012

Romney by 1K

2016

Trump by 6K

2020

Trump by 1K

While Trump gained in the vast majority of rural areas nationwide in both 2016 and 2020, some areas in the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula bucked the trend in 2020, including relatively populous Charlevoix and Emmet counties and more traditionally blue Marquette County on the U.P. These counties rank in the top 20 percent of Michigan counties for college-educated voters, opening the door in 2024 to the possibility of more Democratic gains.

Path to victory

For a Harris winHarris will want to keep expanding Democrats’ margins in Oakland County and the Grand Rapids area, while ideally getting closer to Obama’s numbers in Detroit. And if she can keep the suburbs moving in her direction and avoid a big rural shift, as Democrats did in 2020, she would be in a good position to win the state.

For a Trump winA big challenge for Trump is taking advantage of his appeal among working-class voters. He’ll want to reverse his slight declines in 2020 in Detroit and Macomb County. He also needs to keep his losses down in other suburban counties and urban areas and ideally grow his 2020 advantage in rural areas.

The 2020 election was just the second since the 1940s that Democrats were able to pick off Arizona. Biden won the state by 10,000 votes, despite its having gone for Republicans by more than 200,000 votes as recently as 2012. That Democratic victory was powered in large part by big swings in Phoenix-based Maricopa County, where nearly 6 in 10 voters reside.

All signs point to Arizona once again being in play, given that Democrats did relatively well here in the 2022 midterm elections. But it’s possible it won’t be as favorable turf. Trump has done marginally better in the 2024 polls in Arizona than in other swing states.

Mesa, a Maricopa County city — the state’s third most populous — has gone from a 23-point win for the GOP in 2012 to a 16-point win in 2016 all the way down to a seven-point win in 2020. If Democrats can flip it, that would be a good sign for them.

The state’s largest voter base outside of Maricopa is Pima County, which has trended toward Democrats but less so than Maricopa. It’s a border county, where Republicans hope the border influx during the earlier days of the Biden administration can help them blunt Democrats’ gains.

This rural border county is one of the few in the state to move toward Democrats in 2016 but then back toward Republicans in 2020. (Two others on the border, Cochise County and Santa Cruz County, also did this. But they didn’t move nearly as much as Yuma, and they’re smaller.) The small and overwhelmingly Hispanic city of San Luis here might epitomize the GOP’s apparent momentum among Hispanic voters. San Luis favored Democrats by at least 76 points in both 2012 and 2016, but by just 47 points in 2020. Polls show Trump winning as many as 4 in 10 Hispanic voters, which could rival Republicans’ best showing among them in decades (44 percent in 2004).

Trump has increased Republicans’ margins in this rural northwestern Arizona county by more than 11,000 votes in each of his elections. Those are big gains for a rural area, and it could demonstrate whether he can keep adding votes in such areas.

Path to victory

For a Harris winMaricopa County isn’t the whole ballgame, but it’s a large portion of it. Another big gain in Maricopa and to a lesser extent Pima County would probably seal the deal for Democrats, irrespective of Trump’s gains in the rural areas and along the rest of the border.

For a Trump winTrump needs to stop the bleeding in Arizona’s more urban areas, Maricopa especially. The good news for him is that lots of Democratic voters there have voted Republican for president relatively recently. Trump might not be able to reverse Democrats’ gains from 2020, but if he could hold further gains to a minimum, his gains in the rural areas and suburbs could be enough.

Only one state was decided by less than a single point in both of Trump’s campaigns, and that’s Wisconsin. A 0.8-point Trump upset in 2016 (or about 23,000 votes) became a 0.6-point win for Biden in 2020 (or about 21,000 votes). Wisconsin features fewer electoral votes (10) than most other swing states, but those electoral votes have had disproportionate value in recent elections.

In other words, it’s a crucial swing state, but it’s also fairly unusual in that the electorate is more White and largely rural, but Democrats generally do a better job competing for those White and rural votes. The votes also haven’t shifted as much in the suburbs here as elsewhere, which has proved helpful for Trump.

The county with the state’s most formally educated residents provided Democrats’ biggest gains in both 2016 and 2020, winning it nearly 3-to-1 in the latter year. In total, Biden gained more than 75,000 votes in counties in which at least one-third of adults had college degrees, whereas Trump gained a smaller 32,000 votes in counties with less-educated populations.

Trump swung these relatively populous counties — Brown County being home to Green Bay — significantly in his favor in 2016, despite their populations being among the more formally educated. That’s unusual, but it epitomized his universal gains outside of the Milwaukee and Madison areas. These counties trended a little back toward Democrats in 2020, but Trump’s ability to compete in these kinds of areas will say a lot about his statewide prospects.

WOW is shorthand for three suburban counties around Milwaukee — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. All three trended toward Democrats in 2016, the only ones besides Dane. But while Trump was unable to limit the bleeding in many other suburban areas around the country in 2020, he did here, even gaining in Washington. Limiting his losses again here will be key.

This relatively populous county between Milwaukee and Green Bay provided Trump’s biggest rural gain in 2020 (more than 2,000 votes), even as his broader rural gains were more limited. It could prove to be a good indicator for how the rest of the state’s rural areas might go.

Path to victory

For a Harris winHarris will want to gain more in the still-Republican-leaning WOW suburbs than Biden did in 2020 if she wants to have more breathing room. She’ll also want to continue to reverse Trump’s gains in the Green Bay area and keep expanding Democrats’ advantages in Dane County and Milwaukee.

For a Trump winTrump needs to make sure he’s not ceding too many votes in more educated areas, including rural ones. It wasn’t that long ago, after all, that Obama actually won those rural areas. Key areas for Trump could be north and west of Milwaukee, including Brown, Dodge and Winnebago counties, given how fruitful those areas have been for him in previous elections.

Democrats have flirted with turning Nevada into a more reliably blue state. After all, they’ve won it in each of the last four presidential races — including by double-digits in 2008. But what might spell trouble for Democrats is that their margins are getting tighter. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump kept his deficits to just 2.4 points — losing both elections by less than 50,000 votes.

The limited polling we have this year suggests it is just as competitive in 2024. Trump’s gains with working-class and Hispanic voters have made this a real battleground.

Democrats’ margins of victory here have been dropping, from nearly 15 points in 2012 to 10.6 points in 2016 to 9.4 points in 2020. But Biden was still able to bank a lot more votes there in 2020 than Democrats did in 2016, thanks to population growth and high turnout. Republicans would love to keep chipping away at those margins — and need to.

Trump nearly flipped this county, Nevada’s second-largest and home to Reno, in 2016 (Clinton won it by 1.2 points), before Biden grew Democrats’ margin of victory to 4.5 points — closer to Obama’s 2012 performance.

Path to victory

For a Harris winIf Harris can reassert Democrats’ double-digit advantage in Clark County, she would be virtually assured victory. Beyond that, continuing to make gains in growing Washoe County could offset losses in Clark.

For a Trump winContinuing to chip away at Democrats’ edge in Clark is the ballgame here, as evidenced by Trump’s proposal — later emulated by Harris — to stop taxing workers’ tips. (Las Vegas is home to many service workers who might benefit from such a change.)