, Columnist
How My Hard Economic Landing Forecast Went Wrong
But keep the champagne on ice. We’re not in the clear just yet. The key to avoiding a recession lies in the labor market.
Softer is better than harder when it comes to economic landings.
Photographer: Keystone/Getty Images
I’ve been too pessimistic about the risks of a so-called hard landing for the US economy over the past few years. Although most of my conclusions that led to that view were correct, such an outcome remains very much in doubt.
My reasoning went like this:
