In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans

Democrats have lost the most ground in neighborhoods where poverty rates are highest. It could hurt Kamala Harris in November.

Gabriel Lopez grew up in a family of Democrats in the Kensington neighborhood of deep-blue Philadelphia. So in 2016, the first presidential election he was old enough to vote in, he picked Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.

But Lopez, now 27, says his views have changed. He switched his registration to Republican this year, and he plans to vote for Trump, who’s running for president a third time.

“Democrats keep saying [Trump] is going to bring down the economy, but he was already president for four years, and taxes were lower,” Lopez said. “We’re tired of the same politics. We got a different type of guy, and the people actually love him.”

A home health aide and rideshare driver, Lopez said Democrats haven’t kept their promises to bring down prices or improve life in his community. Trump, he said, is “at least straightforward.”

Lopez embodies one of Democrats’ biggest problems in Pennsylvania: working-class voters in Philadelphia, a once reliable voting bloc for the party, have drifted right in recent years. And they’ve been disproportionately affected by rising prices over the last several years, an issue many blame Democrats for.

It’s one of the biggest potential areas of concern for Harris, whose quest for the White House may hinge on Pennsylvania, where President Joe Biden four years ago defeated Trump by just 80,000 votes.

Harris’ best opportunity to run up her vote total is in Philly, where 20% of the state’s Democrats live, but where Democrats bled more votes in 2020 than in any other county. Biden performed worse than Clinton in 41 of the city’s 66 political wards.

The shift was most stark in working-class communities. An Inquirer analysis of election results found that, in 2020, Democrats lost the most ground in neighborhoods where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest.

The trend was consistent across racial groups, though it was most pronounced in majority-Latino neighborhoods. In two North Philadelphia political wards — including the one where Lopez lives — Biden in 2020 performed worse in nearly every voting division than Clinton did in 2016.

In some areas, voters increasingly cast ballots for Trump. In others, Democratic vote totals declined because turnout did — fewer people showing up in blue strongholds is effectively a gain for Republicans.

Turnout in Philadelphia has been a perennial concern for Democrats. Some blame ideological divisions within the party, and others point to the Democratic City Committee and the state party, which are responsible for driving turnout in every election cycle but have been criticized as ineffective.

Party leaders are projecting confidence. North Philadelphia State Sen. Sharif Street, the state Democratic chair, said the party and the Harris campaign have a robust get-out-the-vote program.

He said there’s also more enthusiasm now that Harris is at the top of the ticket, especially among younger voters and voters of color who were skeptical of Biden before he dropped out of the race in July.

Polls in some ways confirm that. A September Philadelphia Inquirer/ New York Times/ Siena College poll showed Harris performing significantly better in the city than Biden earlier this year.

But in the same poll, enthusiasm to vote was lowest in the city’s working-class neighborhoods.

Aicha Tahirou, a hotel housekeeper who is knocking on doors with her union in support of Democrats, said both parties need to forge stronger relationships in those communities.

“Democrat and Republican, right now, they all do the same,” said Tahirou, 29. “Without the voters, you are nothing. You gotta visit them. You gotta ask about their concerns. I know you're sitting in the mansions, but we are not. We are poor. We are struggling.”

Republicans try to capitalize as Dems struggle with the working class

Jim Kohn voted for Democrats much of life — that is, until Trump came along in 2016.

Kohn, a retired truck driver who lives in South Philly and for years voted along with the Teamsters union, is still a registered Democrat. But he’s planning to vote for Trump for the third time, and he believes more of his neighbors frustrated with inflation and the high cost of goods will, too.

“When Trump was president, everything was cheaper,” he said. “Now, everything is so sky high.”

Trump’s presidency was capped by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a historically sharp economic downturn that economists say shifted prices upward for years to come.

Kohn lives on the southern end of the 39th ward, a largely white, working-class neighborhood that has shifted right. Clinton won Kohn’s voting division in 2016, but Trump won it in 2020, after the number of people in the area who voted for him increased by 52%.

Class and voting patterns are closely tied in Philadelphia. Between 2016 and 2020, the Philadelphia precincts with the highest proportion of residents in poverty shifted furthest to the right, according to the Inquirer’s analysis.

At the same time, voting divisions with least poverty shifted most to the left.

Street said part of the problem in 2020 was the pandemic, which limited face-to-face interactions with voters.

“Blue-collar people, we have to meet them where they are,” he said. “We go to civic meetings, bars, churches, beauty salons. But if they’re not in the barber shop or in the church because they’re closed, then how could we go find them?”

But it wasn’t just 2020. Democrats lost swaths of lower-income voters in 2022 as well — that was true across the state, and it had a disproportionately high impact in Philadelphia because of its size.

The GOP believes it can continue to build support this year given frustration about inflation and Trump’s appeal with the working class.

Voter registration trends may be on their side. Republicans have outpaced Democrats in the registration battle statewide, including in Philadelphia, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 7-to-1 in the city.

Since the end of 2023, the GOP gained more than 10,300 registrants in Philadelphia, while Democrats netted about 9,800, according to data from the Department of State. The number of unaffiliated voters is roughly flat.

Charlie O’Connor, a GOP leader in the 45th ward, which includes parts of Lower Northeast Philadelphia, said the party has registered hundreds of Republicans in his area since the primary. Records show scores of them were former Democrats.

“The question you ask at the door — doesn’t matter, Black, white — is: are you better off than you were four years ago?” O’Connor said. “That’s the universal message. And people aren’t.”

Democratic leaders say their problem is communication, not policy.

“We as elected officials, as the party apparatus, have to do a better job of communicating to the average, everyday people that we hear them, we see them, we feel them, and the work that we're doing to make their lives a little bit better,” said State Rep. Jordan Harris, a West Philadelphia Democrat and a top leader in the Pennsylvania House.

A rightward shift in Latino communities

Vote totals in Philadelphia’s working-class communities have moved right, regardless of race, but in 2020, the most pronounced losses for Democrats were in the city’s majority-Latino areas.

Felix Alvarado lives in one of the North Philadelphia neighborhoods that’s moved right since 2016. He’s leaning toward voting for Harris, but is considering Trump, too.

Alvarado, 33, said he’s concerned about the crisis at the Southern border and doesn’t feel like he knows Harris’ plan to deal with it.

“She’s been a little wishy washy,” said Alvarado, a registered Democrat.

Winning over Pennsylvania’s Latino population could be one key to winning the state. There are more than 600,000 eligible Latino voters in Pennsylvania, and they’re the fastest growing demographic group in Philadelphia, according to Census data.

That presents an opportunity for both campaigns.

To win back Latino voters, Harris’ campaign has deployed surrogates to community events in majority-Latino areas, organized bilingual outreach to voters via phone, and is running Spanish-language ads in the Philadelphia area.

At the same time, Trump is trying to capitalize on the shift. His campaign has opened outreach offices in communities of color, touted endorsements from prominent Puerto Rican musicians, and hosted events specifically targeted to Latino men.

Rafael Álvarez Febo, a Puerto Rican and LGBTQ community leader based in North Philadelphia, said Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric is appealing to some Latino men who believe government has failed them.

“Many of us have people in our families who have gone to jail, or gone to schools that have failed us. We’re not trustful of the government,” said Álvarez Febo, a Democrat who plans to vote for Harris. “Then you have someone like Trump, who is a liar, and for some people, it’s like, ‘you know something? He’s an honest representation of what we feel.’”

Álvarez Febo said he hasn’t seen a renewed effort from Democrats to win back those voters, or targeted outreach to working-class residents on key issues like inflation.

“They’re saying Kamala is going to save our democracy,” Álvarez Febo said. “That means very little for people who can’t keep the lights on.”

Democratic Party leaders said the work to reach those voters is happening on a person-to-person level and will ramp up more in the coming weeks.

State Rep. Danilo Burgos, the Democratic leader of the Fairhill-based 43rd ward – which saw some of the steepest declines in Democratic turnout in 2020 – equated the party’s outreach this year to “hand-to-hand combat.”

Burgos acknowledged that the price of goods is the biggest issue for most voters in his community, a problem many pin on the Biden White House. He said Democrats are blaming price-gouging and say GOP-backed tax breaks for corporations will make the situation worse.

“You have to educate people on a one-on-one basis,” he said.

A political realignment in the making?

O’Connor, the Republican ward leader, said he believes the GOP will perform better than expected in Philadelphia this year, in part because he sees the parties realigning based on class.

“When I first started in politics in 1978, the managerial class was Republican — no one votes the way their bosses vote,” he said. “Now, most people in the managerial class vote Democratic and no one is voting the way their boss is. So it’s been a flip. Most of the bosses are Democrats and the Democratic Party has become the party of the upper middle class.”

Some on the left worry he’s right. Democratic struggle with working-class voters has been a concern of the Working Families Party, a progressive third party that challenges Democrats in primaries and boosts some Democrats in general elections. The group says it wants to win back America’s working class through repeated, in-person conversations with voters.

Salaah Muhamad, organizing director of the Working Families Party’s Pennsylvania chapter, said the group tries to break through with voters who feel disconnected from both major parties.

“There’s been some disillusionment that folks have felt, from politics as usual, economic policies as usual,” he said.

Democrats are leaning on organized labor and union members to combat voter apathy. Members of the Service Employees International Union and Unite Here, which represents hospitality workers, are blanketing the city and knocking on doors to try to persuade voters.

Julie Moore, a certified nursing assistant from North Philadelphia and a member of SEIU Heathcare, said the voters she speaks to are often concerned about inflation, the cost of groceries, and gas prices.

“A lot of people are talking about the economy and how it was better, but they can't elaborate,” she said, adding that she tries to pivot and remind voters of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. “I just kind of remind people of, you know, this guy had hundreds of people running into the Capitol building. So that alone, for me, that cancels everything.”

Nitiesha Oglesby, a security officer at the University of Pennsylvania and another SEIU member, said the biggest challenge is convincing people who aren’t planning to vote at all.

She said she tells them Democrats will “make the working class as relevant as possible.”

“We're focused on people that make the world run, make the country work,” Oglesby said. “And those are the people that [we] need to be focused on the most.”

Inquirer staff writer Fallon Roth contributed to this article.

About this series

This article is part of an Inquirer series about the kinds of places that will decide Pennsylvania, a key swing state in the November presidential election. Over the next few months, The Inquirer will visit locations that typify the five groups of places our analysis has identified. Read our coverage: 

• The five kinds of places that win you Pennsylvania
• ‘City folks’ who moved to Philly’s fast-growing suburbs could help Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump in Pa.
• Growing support for Donald Trump in majority-Latino cities like Reading could help him win Pa.
• Suburbs of small cities like Harrisburg are shifting blue — and could help Kamala Harris win Pa. 
• Can Kamala Harris win back support in Pa.’s Trump-friendly Rust Belt?
• In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans