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Champions League projections 2024-25: Each team’s probability of qualifying for knockouts

The Athletic Staff

Oct 1, 2024

Real Madrid are the reigning champions but Manchester City are the (narrow) favourites to win this season’s Champions League. But who else appears to stand a chance of qualifying for the knockout stages of this 36-team beast of a competition, either directly or via the playoff round? And do any other clubs have a good chance of winning it? Throughout the season, we will publish projections — powered by Opta data — to show how teams are expected to perform. These will update after each gameweek. When the league stage is over, there will be probabilities for reaching the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final. The competition’s expanded format might take a little time to get used to, but these projections can show you how it might all unfold.

Last updated October 1, 2024 at 6:10 AM

Champions League team-by-team projections

How teams stack up in the race for automatic qualification and the playoffs in the Champions League's new format.

CHANGE PROJECTIONS:

TEAM

Bayern Munich 3 pts

35%

64%

Celtic 3 pts

24%

65%

11%

<1%

Bayer Leverkusen 3 pts

40%

58%

Aston Villa 3 pts

16%

64%

19%

<1%

Borussia Dortmund 3 pts

38%

60%

Sparta Prague 3 pts

31%

61%

<1%

Liverpool 3 pts

50%

46%

Juventus 3 pts

11%

62%

27%

Real Madrid 3 pts

<1%

18%

81%

20%

Sporting CP 3 pts

58%

35%

Benfica 3 pts

21%

64%

16%

<1%

Atletico Madrid 3 pts

54%

41%

Brest 3 pts

52%

45%

<1%

Monaco 3 pts

12%

65%

24%

<1%

PSG 3 pts

59%

33%

Arsenal 1 pt

58%

37%

Inter Milan 1 pt

47%

49%

Atalanta 1 pt

13%

64%

22%

Manchester City 1 pt

31%

68%

22%

Bologna 1 pt

56%

41%

<1%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1 pt

77%

22%

<1%

RB Leipzig 0 pts

23%

64%

13%

Barcelona 0 pts

57%

36%

Sturm Graz 0 pts

78%

21%

<1%

Red Star Belgrade 0 pts

86%

14%

<1%

Girona 0 pts

32%

60%

<1%

PSV 0 pts

33%

59%

<1%

Stuttgart 0 pts

20%

65%

15%

<1%

AC Milan 0 pts

33%

60%

<1%

Lille 0 pts

66%

33%

<1%

Club Bruges 0 pts

73%

27%

<1%

Red Bull Salzburg 0 pts

75%

25%

<1%

Young Boys 0 pts

90%

10%

<1%

Slovan Bratislava 0 pts

95%

<1%

Feyenoord 0 pts

66%

33%

<1%

Dinamo Zagreb 0 pts

68%

30%

<1%

Each team will play eight matches in the new league phase, four at home and four away. They will play eight different opponents, rather than facing the same teams home and away, as was the case in the previous format. The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the round of 16. Teams finishing from 9th to 24th in the league will compete in a two-legged knock-out phase play-off, with the winner of each match-up advancing to the last 16 of the competition. Teams that finish 25th or lower in the league phase will be eliminated from the competition. No teams will drop down to the Europa League.

Methodology

Opta’s win prediction model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome (win, draw or loss) by using a combination of betting market odds and Opta's team power rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances and the competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.

Credits

Editing: Duncan Alexander, Charlie Scott

Design and Development: Ryan Best, Elliot Jordan | Editing: Skye Gould, Marc Mazzoni, Laura Pelton

Illustration: Eamonn Dalton