Before analysing rain, however, it is important to understand the limitations of the data. HT analysed global precipitation instead of floods because the latter is harder to track. Data from individual rainfall stations can be averaged using mathematical techniques to get the spatial distribution of rain. This works because there is some spatial relation in rain. For example, one would be hard-pressed to find instances where a city was very wet in a month while its outskirts received no rain at all. On the other hand, cities are more likely to get flooded than their outskirts, because the former is often more concretised and has less natural drainage than the latter. The higher spatial discontinuity in floods than rain means that stations for tracking floods will need to be denser than rain gauge networks. Scientists have tried to overcome this problem using satellite images, but that may not always be useful for a time series analysis.

To be sure, precipitation data also has some problems. For example, the spatial relation in rain does not always extend very far, especially in hilly areas, where the terrain itself plays a role in rainfall. Therefore, rain at places with a sparse coverage of stations is poorly described. Similarly, stations that do not collect rain data in small time intervals may not be able to track the rising intensity of rain. Since the extent of these problems varies across countries, constructing a homogeneous global rain dataset is difficult. Scientists have partly addressed this problem using data from multiple satellites (a single satellite usually flies over a region only twice a day) to fill gaps in data from stations and vice versa. HT used one such dataset – Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis Product – for this analysis.

The GPCP data gives monthly rain since January 1979 for areas bound by two latitudes and longitudes 2.5 degrees apart. This shows that the January-August rain is ranked among the top five years this year since 1979 for 17% of the land area of the earth; among the top three for 11.3% of the land area; and the highest since 1979 for 6% of the land area. Is this extent of very wet areas unusual? It is for the period since 1979. The area that was the rainiest since 1979 in the January-August period was the highest this year. The area that has received rain ranked in the top three or five is also the highest since 1979 this year.

The above statistics highlight that 2024 rain has had the potential to cause floods over a larger area than ever before since floods largely take place over land and a large amount of rain can flood even well-drained areas. They, however, do not necessarily imply that rain in some other year did not have a similar potential. It is possible that monthly rain was less in a year when intense rain covered a larger area than in 2024. Similarly, it is possible that some of the regions where rain is ranked very high are yet to arrive at their main rainy season when a high rank will be accompanied by high rainfall in absolute terms.

The analysis also suggests the possibility of another kind of disaster being more widespread this year: droughts. The January-August rain is ranked among the bottom five since 1979 this year in 13.5% of the land area; among the bottom three in 9.6% of the land area; and the lowest in 4.8% of the land area. The area of regions where rain is ranked in the bottom five is ranked ninth highest. This rank is fifth highest and second highest for the area where rain this year is among the bottom three and lowest ever. As the accompanying map shows, such low rain area was concentrated in South America and Africa, in line with reports of droughts in Brazil and Zimbabwe, for example.

The low rain trends also need to be read with the fact that GPCP’s monthly data is not useful for tracking intensity. A region with a low accumulation of rain over eight months can also suffer floods on a particular day. Nonetheless, this analysis highlights that the rain this year is unusual over a very large area. If the area that has received its highest and lowest ever January-August rain since 1979 is added up, the combined area of the extremes is also ranked the highest since 1979. This suggests that rain trends have had the potential to cause disasters over a large area this year, possibly the largest area in four and half decades.

Abhishek Jha, HT’s assistant editor-data, analyses one big weather trend in the context of the ongoing climate crisis every week, using weather data from ground and satellite observations spanning decades.

The study findings reveal that India is the largest plastic polluter, contributing emissions of 9.3 million tonnes per year—around 20% of global pollution. Nigeria and Indonesia follow with 3.5 and 3.4 million tonnes per year, respectively, while China, previously the worst, ranks fourth with 2.8 million tonnes. Over two-thirds of the world's plastic pollution comes from uncollected waste, affecting 1.2 billion people without waste collection services. In 2020, 30 million tonnes of plastic—57% of all pollution—was burned in uncontrolled environments, exacerbating the crisis.

The findings raise critical questions about the effectiveness of India’s waste management systems and the need for a comprehensive overhaul. “The health risks resulting from plastic pollution affect some of the world’s poorest communities, who are powerless to do anything about it,” said Josh Cottom, co-author from the School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom. “Uncollected waste is the biggest source of plastic pollution, often being dumped on land, in rivers, or burning it in open fires.”

Experts warn that India's official figures on waste generation and collection are significantly skewed, painting an overly optimistic picture of the country's plastic management systems. With emissions spiralling and the health impacts mounting, the time for half-measures is over; India must confront the full scale of its plastic pollution problem.

India’s plastic emissions are underestimated, and waste collection overstated

In the context of plastic pollution, ‘hidden emissions’ refers to the less visible but highly impactful environmental and health hazards associated with plastic waste, particularly from practices such as open burning, uncollected waste decomposing in landfills, and the release of microplastics into ecosystems. These emissions are not just about the visible plastic waste we see on the streets and in rivers; they include greenhouse gases, toxic chemicals, and microplastics that are often not accounted for in official data, making them "hidden" in a broader sense.

Emissions related to plastic pollution are extremely harmful, contributing to environmental degradation and posing risks to human health, said Anjal Prakash, an IPCC author and expert on environmental policies. “Key emissions include greenhouse gases released during plastic production and incineration, microplastics entering ecosystems, and toxic chemicals leaching from plastic waste. These pollutants disrupt food chains, harm marine life, and can lead to respiratory issues in humans,” he said.

The emissions from plastic burning, landfill gas production, and microplastic pollution are typically underreported or overlooked, creating a misleading picture of the true environmental cost of plastic. So, while the physical waste is visible, the broader impact—especially on air quality, soil, and water systems—often remains hidden from public discourse and official statistics, which experts highlight as a critical oversight in managing the full scope of plastic pollution. “Additionally, plastic-laden mixed waste in landfills generates methane, a potent greenhouse gas, further exacerbating climate change and environmental concerns,” added Prakash.

The latest study suggests that India's official figures on waste generation and collection may not be accurate, with the country likely underestimating its waste generation and overestimating collection rates. This discrepancy is alarming given India’s rapidly growing population and urbanisation, exacerbating the challenges of managing plastic waste.

Addressing plastic pollution in India is not just about improving waste management; it's essential to support our net zero ambitions, said Prakash. “With nearly one-fifth of global plastic emissions originating here, our current waste generation rates are likely underestimated, leaving a significant gap in our understanding of the issue. This gap hampers our ability to develop effective interventions and support our net zero ambitions.”

Policy efforts fall short of addressing the full plastic lifecycle

India has implemented several measures to tackle plastic waste, including bans on specific single-use plastics and guidelines for Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) on plastic packaging waste. However, experts argue these measures fall short as they focus primarily on downstream solutions, ignoring the broader lifecycle of plastic production and consumption.

Swati Sambyal, a senior circular economy expert who is also working with countries in the Global South on the plastics treaty, highlighted that India’s current approach addresses only the symptoms of plastic pollution without tackling its root causes.

“India’s long-term low-carbon development strategy includes circular economy actions targeting various types of waste, including plastic waste. Since July 2022, initiatives to curb single-use plastics (SUPs) have been implemented, with bans on certain items and guidelines for EPR for plastic packaging waste. However, these measures focus solely on downstream interventions and do not address the entire plastic lifecycle, particularly the upstream aspects like polymer production,” said Sambyal, adding, “To make real progress, we need to consider the full lifecycle—production, consumption, and waste generation.”

Sambyal noted that the Global Plastics Treaty, currently under negotiation, represents an opportunity to rethink global approaches to plastic pollution. She said the need for collaborative efforts, arguing that plastic pollution is not just a problem created by countries in the Global South but one requiring global action.

She said that while the latest study (published in Nature) provides useful insights into downstream plastic challenges, it’s important to note that this is not solely an issue created by countries in the Global South. “Global action is needed to "close the tap" on plastic pollution. Yes, waste management systems in many regions are compromised, but the challenge is also one of scale and available resources, making it a complex issue to address,” she said.

Uncollected waste and open-burning

The latest study said nearly half of India’s plastic waste remains uncollected, finding its way into rivers, oceans, and uncontrolled dumpsites. Uncollected waste and open burning are particularly concerning as they release toxic emissions that are harmful to both the environment and human health.

Researchers of the latest study said this is one of the first-ever global inventory of plastic pollution that provides a baseline, comparable to those for climate change emissions.”Policymakers can use it to tackle this looming environmental disaster through detailed local-scale datasets. It will help decision-makers to allocate scarce resources to address plastic pollution efficiently,” the authors said.

Prakash underlined the importance of improving data on plastic flows to tackle pollution hotspots within larger countries like India effectively. He pointed out that global negotiations, such as the upcoming treaty discussions in Busan, could be pivotal in setting a new baseline for understanding plastic pollution.

“The ongoing negotiations for a global treaty on plastic pollution present a crucial opportunity to establish a high-resolution baseline of plastic flows. This would help us identify pollution hotspots and develop targeted interventions, ensuring that uncollected waste is addressed effectively. This will be crucial, especially for country such as India and states must keep a close eye on these developments,” said Prakash.

Population pressure skews the perception of India’s emissions

While India is highlighted as the largest emitter of plastic pollution, Sambyal further added that the narrative, while reporting the Nature article often overlooks an essential aspect: India’s per capita plastic consumption is significantly lower than that of many developed countries.

“It’s important to note that per capita plastic consumption is significantly less for India as mentioned in the article; it’s our population that skews these numbers. Reporting around these studies often misses this critical context,” she said.

This proves to be a crucial insight for the Global South as it highlights the need to consider population size and socio-economic factors when assessing India’s role in global plastic pollution, further indicating that solutions must be tailored to local realities rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

The path forward

Experts agree that addressing India’s plastic pollution crisis requires more than just improving waste management; it necessitates systemic change across the entire plastic lifecycle. This includes investing in infrastructure for better waste segregation, recycling, and reduction strategies at the production level. Additionally, integrating informal waste pickers—who play a crucial role in the current system but are often unrecognised—could improve collection efficiency and reduce emissions.

The Nature study and expert perspectives point to the need for India to align its domestic policies with global standards, pushing for stricter regulations on plastic production and fostering international cooperation to combat this shared challenge. “We need to start focusing much, much more on tackling open burning and uncollected waste before more lives are needlessly impacted by plastic pollution. It cannot be ‘out of sight, out of mind’,” said Dr Costas Velis, co-author of the study.

As countries prepare to convene for treaty negotiations, India’s leadership in these discussions could be crucial in shaping a future where plastic pollution is tackled from production to disposal, ensuring a cleaner and healthier environment for all.

“Despite the latest study findings, the root causes of why this challenge persists in the Global South need to be fully addressed. As countries convene in Busan to finalise the treaty, it’s essential to approach the problem holistically and collaboratively. We also need clearer insights into who the primary contributors to plastic pollution are worldwide,” said Sambyal.