I firmly believe that Donald Trump is going to win the Presidential election by carrying every single swing state. I also believe he will win the popular vote. My analysis is rooted in the numbers. Donald Trump has never polled as well as he is polling right now against Kamala Harris. That matters because pollsters have consistently and uniformly underestimated Trump's support... by a lot. In 2016, pollsters overestimated Hillary Clinton's support in swing states by an average of 3.1 points. In 2020, they overestimated Biden's support in those states by 3.6 points. Polling has not only not improved, it has gotten measurably worse the more time Trump has spent on the national scene. Either the pollsters are simply bad at getting a firm grasp on Trump's base of support, or they are actively lying for political purposes. Either way, the consistent bias in the polls means that we can rightfully assume that if Trump is "losing" in the polls within the pro-Democrat margin of error, it means he is leading the actual result. If we apply the pro-Democrat bias in prior polls to the current polling data then we can be get a better sense of how the election is actually playing out right now. Below, I run through the 538 averaged "poll of polls" data for 2024 in the swing states and compare it to the same averages in 2020, next to the final 2020 returns. This analysis shows that Donald Trump is decisively leading in the swing states and headed toward victory in the electoral college and in the popular vote. This is my conservative estimate. I believe Trump's momentum is strong enough that he is in competitive position in both Virginia and New Hampshire. He is also going to outperform in New Jersey. Probably not close enough to flip but getting there. The numbers are nasty for Kamala Harris. She is barreling toward the worst presidential defeat since Dukakis in 1988.
