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Dylan Stransky - Carbon Emission Simulation - 14097126
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DATA TABLES: CARBON CYCLE
test-learnermedia.pantheonsite/wp-content/interactive/envsci/carbon/carbon.html This lab uses a robust model of the carbon cycle to give you an intuitive sense of how carbon circulates through the atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, and crust. This model is similar to the ones presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It allows you to experiment with how human input to the cycle might change global outcomes to the year 2100 and beyond. One particularly relevant human impact is the increase in atmospheric CO 2 levels. Between the years 1850 and 2015, atmospheric concentrations have risen from 290 parts per million (ppm) to over 400 ppm - a level higher than any known on Earth in more than 30 million years (see Unit 12 to find out how scientists measure ancient atmospheric carbon levels). Using the simulator, you will experiment with the human factors that contribute to this rise and explore how different inputs to the carbon cycle might affect the concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO 2. Run the simulation to the year 2110 with the default settings, and, using your Data Table, record the total carbon levels in each "sink" (terrestrial plants, soil, oil and gas, coal, surface ocean, and deep ocean) at 2060 and 2110. Using the data you collect from the model, answer the following questions while thinking about how the model mimics real-life conditions. Note: The default setting for the increase in fossil fuel use per year is 2%. This rate of increase has been our recent experience for the increase in global energy use, as the world's economies ramp up and populations grow (see the Demographics lab). LESSON 1 Lesson 1: Step 1 Gaseous Carbon Ocean Water Fossil Fuels Biosphere Gaseous Carbon To Year Atmosphere Ocean Surface Deep Ocean Oil and Gas Coal Soil Terrestrial Plants 2010 720 1000 38000 500 3500 2000 700 2060 1031 1107 38250 66 3170 2038 758 2110 2254 1333 39091 0 700 2141 899
If only one-half of the flora in the world existed in 2110 (perhaps due to deforestation), what do you predict the atmospheric carbon level would be? How would you change the simulation to reflect this? I would expect an increase in the atmospheric carbon level if only one half of the flora in the world existed in
I would increase the net deforestation rate per year in order to reflect this in the simulation.
What is the relationship between increased carbon in the ocean and increased carbon in the soil? How else might carbon be transferred to the soil? The relationship between increased carbon in the ocean and increased carbon in the soil is proportional, as one increases or decreases the other follows the same pattern. Carbon may also be transferred to the soil by rainwater or the decomposition of organic matter.
Using the data generated by the simulation, determine the mathematical relationship between the percentage increase in fossil fuel consumption and the increase in atmospheric carbon. Is the relationship linear? The relationship is not linear. Lesson 1: Step 2 Total Carbon Emissions Gaseous Carbon Ocean Water Fossil Fuels Biosphere Gaseous Carbon To Year Smokestack Atmosphere Ocean Surface Deep Ocean Oil and Gas Coal Soil Terrestrial Plants 2010 0 720 1000 38000 500 3500 2000 700 2020 99 753 1035 38021 444 3457 2002 708 2030 121 806 1050 38057 375 3405 2008 718 2040 147 868 1066 38107 292 3342 2016 730 2050 179 941 1085 38170 190 3264 2026 743 2060 218 1031 1107 38250 66 3170 2038 758 2070 301 1171 1137 38349 0 2933 2051 776 2080 405 1364 1178 38478 0 2528 2068 801 2090 493 1598 1224 38642 0 2035 2089 830 2100 601 1888 1275 38845 0 1433 2113 862 2110 733 2254 1333 39091 0 700 2141 899
What is the relationship between an increase in fossil fuel consumption and increased carbon in terrestrial plants? How might this change flora populations? What impact could twenty years at this level of consumption have on flora? An increase in fossil fuel consumption will increase the CO2 in the atmosphere. This means there will be higher carbon dioxide levels available to plants, which they need for photosynthesis. Therefore, flora populations would grow. The impact would more than likely not be large in a time lapse of 20 years, but it would be positive and the flora would more than likely thrive.
What is the relationship between an increase in total carbon concentration (the smokestack) and increased carbon on the ocean surface? How might this change marine life populations? What impact could fifty years at this level of emissions have on marine fauna? On marine flora? The carbon concentration (the smokestack) and the carbon in the ocean surface correlate and increase in the same manner. This increase could lead to the decrease or possible extinction of marine life. In 50 years, if we continue to change the pH of our water making it more acidic, marine flora and fauna will be severely damaged.
In addition to circulating through the carbon cycle, where else might excess carbon be found? In fifty years, where would you be most likely to see excess carbon? Excess carbon can also be found in living organisms. In fifty years, I believe excess carbon will be found in the atmosphere.
Which areas are most highly (and quickly) affected by an increase in carbon emissions (and increase in fossil fuel consumption)? How would these effects manifest themselves? What are the dangers/benefits to these areas? The atmosphere and ocean surface are most highly affected by an increase in carbon emissions. The atmosphere and ocean are vast and are able to disperse large amounts of CO2. However, over time this buildup of carbon has negatively affected change in the climate globally You should now have some understanding of how carbon moves through the system, but you may be wondering about the mechanisms behind this flow. As you read through the following explanations, refer to your Data Table for Lesson 1 Step 2. Atmosphere: combustion of carbon-based fuel combines carbon, C, and oxygen, O 2 , adding CO 2 to the atmosphere. CO 2 is not a by-product of fossil fuel use; it's the direct product of the very reaction that releases the energy. Biosphere (Terrestrial Plants and Soil): plants (biomass) inhale CO 2 and exhale O 2. When there's more CO 2 available, biomass tends to breathe in more, and therefore grow more. Most scientists now believe that plants have a limited ability to increase their growth rate. Surface ocean: The amount of gas dissolved in any liquid is proportional to the partial pressure of that gas in the vapor phase above the liquid (Henry's Law). As a result, if we increase the partial pressure of atmospheric CO 2 (i. increase the concentration of CO 2 ), then we force more CO 2 gas to dissolve into the liquid. (In this case, the liquid is the ocean.) In addition to the CO 2 dissolving into the liquid as a gas, CO 2 reacts with H 2 O and forms bicarbonate ions (HCO3-) and carbonate ions (CO3--). This combustion of fossil fuels results in an increase in dissolved surface ocean carbon and a decrease in pH. Deep ocean: Ocean chemistry involving mineral precipitation, biological activity, and ocean currents transport the carbon from the surface ocean to the deep ocean over long time scales. Thinking Ahead
How will the increase in biosphere production of carbon alter the carbon levels in:
Atmosphere
Surface ocean
Deep Ocean
Fossil fuels
Number and variety of terrestrial plants and animals? It will more than likely increase taxonomy and the number and variety of species.
How will the increased carbon levels as noted in your Data Table affect the current taxonomy? Will the number and variety of species change? How will they change? The increased carbon levels might be good for current taxonomy. The number and variety of species could increase.
From your collected data and what you have learned so far, what do you propose as a solution to this dilemma? I propose that we need to watch what we put into the atmosphere because everything that we do always has an effect on the Earth.
2060 0 0 850 38187
2100 0 0 941 38433
- What effect does a high carbon level have on the deep ocean? Why might it be important to keep an eye on the deep ocean carbon levels? What could that one number tell you about the cycle as a whole? High concentrations of carbon dioxide make it harder for marine animals to respire (to extract oxygen from seawater). This, in turn, makes it harder for these animals to find food, avoid predators, and reproduce. Low concentrations of oxygen can have a similar effect.
- Try reducing the level of fossil fuel percentage increase and decrease deforestation by 1 GT per year. Predict what will happen to the atmospheric carbon levels and record it in your Data Table. Run the simulation to test your hypothesis. Were you correct? Were you surprised by the result? What about your result surprised you? The overload of the emission of carbon in the atmosphere surprised me. The data was recorded and investigated for 2000 to 2100. Different parameters like ocean water and fossil fuel. The fossil fuel when burn contribute to the release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide gas. The oceanic water release the decomposed carbon dioxide by calcium carbonate of coral reefs and respiration of aquatic animals.
- You've seen that the rate of increase in fossil fuel use would have to stop in order to keep atmospheric CO 2 below 550 ppm, despite a projected increase in energy demand (currently 2% per year, though it rose to 2% during 2000-2010). Consider what this means in real terms. What non-carbon-burning energy sources could make up the difference? And how fast would their adoption have to increase? To keep atmospheric CO2 below 550 ppm, the increase in fossil fuel use must stop despite rising energy demand. Non-carbon-burning sources like solar, wind, hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal power could fill the gap. Their adoption would need to accelerate rapidly, requiring significant investment in infrastructure, technology, and policy support.
- Considering the extra carbon created by humans, how might it be possible (or is it?) to generate more means of recycling carbon? Science has long recognized that it is possible to recombine carbon from CO2 with hydrogen from water to produce hydrocarbons, or familiar fuels like gasoline. Carbon Recycling in Context: When animals eat plants or eat other animals that have eaten plants, they ingest carbon. Photosynthesis produces oxygen as a byproduct, plants and animals decompose and return carbon to the soil when they die. DATA TABLES: CARBON CYCLE So far we have considered only the impact of burning fossil fuels. However, other human activities influence the carbon cycle. One major factor is deforestation and land use. Currently, land use (for example, rice paddies) and deforestation outstrip reforestation by roughly 1 GT per year. If deforestation were to increase, perhaps due to increased burning of rainforests, carbon would be transferred first from terrestrial plants to the atmosphere and then through the rest of the carbon cycle as seen in Lesson 1. Change the net deforestation rate and observe how that impacts the carbon cycle. Note that deforestation is expressed as GT of carbon released, not as a percentage rate of increase. Realistic deforestation estimates would remain at less than 2 GT per year. Record what happens to the system at a steady net deforestation rate of 1 GT per year and answer the following:
- By 2090, how has the terrestrial flora population changed? What is the carbon level in the soil and how does the carbon level affect the flora populations and species variety? By 2090, the terrestrial flora population has increased. The carbon level in the soil has also increased to 2089. As a Lesson 3: Step 1 Biosphere Gaseous Carbon To Year Net Def. Rate Soil Terrestrial Plants 2010 1 2000 700 2070 1 2045 769 2090 1 2082 822 2110 1 2134 891
result, the flora has thrived and increased in population and species variety. 2. Compare this chart to the first one you made.
- In 2070, how are soil carbon levels different? In what ways will this difference in soil carbon level manifest itself? In 2070, the soil carbon levels are slightly smaller. It manifests as decomposing matter.
- By 2070, how might the worldwide decomposer populations change? What effects could “business as usual” and the last rate of deforestation you selected have on human health? By 2070, I think the worldwide decomposer populations would decrease. If deforestation continues at the rate above I believe it would result in negative health effects in the human population. Less plants to filter the air means higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. This could cause more lung related health problems and also an increase in asthma. There are several important natural systems that may be affected by greenhouse warming as atmospheric CO 2 rises. Some of these systems may release even more CO 2 into the atmosphere, speed up the warming, and cause a positive feedback loop. Which feedback effects will actually take place is hard to predict in such a complex system, but a model for one feedback effect is included in the simulator: melting tundra. If the arctic tundra were to melt as temperatures rise, its stored carbon would enter the system. You will find two possible scenarios. One model assumes that 1/12 of the tundra will melt over 100 years. The other predicts that 1/6 will melt over that same time period. Assume that, in this hypothetical scenario, the tundra melting is inevitable and there is a 2% increase in fossil fuel consumption. Which of the two rates of melting would: Lesson 3: Step 2 Tundra Melt Rate Gaseous Carbon Ocean Water Fossil Fuels Biosphere Gaseous Carbon To Year Net Def. Rate
1
–—
6
1
–—
12
Atmosphere SurfaceOcean Ocean Deep Oil and Gas Coal Soil Terrestrial Plants 2010 1 390 1000 38000 500 3500 2000 700 2060 1 569 1107 38250 66 3170 2038 758 2110 1 1244 1333 39091 0 700 18341 899
- Have an impact on coastal seaweed populations in 2060? How great an impact? The rate of melting that would have an impact on coastal seaweed populations in 2060 is the rate of melting of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As the ice melts, it raises sea levels and increases ocean temperatures, which can affect the growth and survival of seaweed.
- Have an impact on atmospheric carbon in 2110 that is similar to another scenario you’ve investigated? What commonalities exist between these two scenarios? The concentration of CO₂ is expected to double by the end of the century, leading to rising global temperatures and climate change.
