The U.S. DOJ has indicted the following:

ISMAIL HANIYEH, was the chairman of Hamas’s Politburo from 2017 until his reported death on or about July 31, 2024.  Prior to 2017, HANIYEH was the deputy chairman of the Politburo and the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  HANIYEH was based principally in Turkey and Qatar.

YAHYA SINWAR, a/k/a “Abu Ibrahim,” 61, is the leader of Hamas.  Previously, beginning in approximately 2017, he was the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and is one of the founders of the al-Qassam Brigades.  SINWAR is based principally in the Gaza Strip.

MOHAMMAD AL-MASRI, a/k/a “Mohammed Deif,” a/k/a “al Khalid al-Deif,” was the commander in chief of the al-Qassam Brigades, a position he held from in or about 2002 until his reported death on or about July 13, 2024.  AL-MASRI was based principally in the Gaza Strip.

MARWAN ISSA, a/k/a “Abu Baraa,” was the deputy commander of the al-Qassam Brigades from approximately 2007 until his reported death on or about March 10, 2024.  ISSA was based principally in the Gaza Strip.

KHALED MESHAAL, a/k/a “Abu al-Waleed,” 68, was the chairman of Hamas’s Politburo from approximately 2004 to 2017, and is now the head of Hamas’s diaspora office—effectively responsible for Hamas’s official presence outside of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.  MESHAAL is based principally in Qatar.

ALI BARAKA, 57, has been Hamas’s head of National Relations Abroad since approximately 2019, and was previously Hamas’s representative in Lebanon.  BARAKA is based principally in Lebanon.

Source: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-attorney-announces-terrorism-charges-against-senior-leaders-hamas

Only three of these are still alive, Yahya Sinwar, Khaled Mashal, and Ali Baraka.

I’m surprised Hassan Nasrallah didn’t make it onto any list.

So what gives?

Obviously they messed with American citizens. But why now?

Does anyone really think Sinwar will live very long if he is captured or surrendered to the Israelis? Or if he gives up the remaining hostages?  No way, he has absolutely no motivation to let the captives go. As the Jerusalem Post says, he is a “dead man walking”.  And it is being said that when Bibi visited Mar al Lago last month, he made a deal with Trump not to make a hostage deal in order to help Trump with the election. (hmm, it’s scrubbed already… https://web.archive.org/web/20240727003710/https://abc7.com/post/donald-trump-meets-benjamin-netanyahu-mar-lago-mending/15100468/ )

But what if Sinwar (and leaders of the other brigades holding hostages) surrendered to the U.S.?  Would he go to Guantanamo? Could the U.S. extradite him, in the unlikely event Israel captured him alive?  Maybe some other country would capture him and turn him over?

I sense some complicated dance taking place in the wings.

Is there money to claim for reparations?

“If once you have paid him the Dane-geld,
you never get rid of the Dane” —Kipling

With the latest tragedy of the hostages, it occurred to me that the real goal of the Israeli government might be more long term than the lives of a few hundred people they are not personally related to, and I thought to google Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks.

Ismail Haniyeh was just assassinated a few weeks ago in Iran, but how much more they must want to get Sinwar.  And Sinwar must be smack dab in the middle of any hostage negotiations.

Sure enough, I was not the first person to think of this.  There are a few think pieces, all within the last 48 hours. Taken together, they pretty much conclude that the ending of the war depends on taking Sinwar, but that even though they know where he is, they haven’t taken him yet because of danger to the hostages that he surrounds himself with as human shields.  The lone exception is the Jerusalem Post, Israel’s unofficial newspaper of record, which mentions Sinwar in passing as “dead man walking” but expends quite a lot of ink talking about a potential invasion of Lebanon, with some Iran thrown in for good measure.

Here is a sampling:

• This one is kind of bland and says nothing. Checking the author, it was written by an assistant professor at an Arab university. ‘Why Haven’t You Liberated Palestine Yet?’: Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar’s Relentless Race To Achieve His Goals https://newlinesmag.com/argument/why-havent-you-liberated-palestine-yet-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwars-relentless-race-to-achieve-his-goals/
• “What helped Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar evade US, Israeli surveillance tools, techniques” https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2024/08/31/what-helped-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-evade-us-israeli-tools-techniques.html
• “Netanyahu priority may be Sinwar, not Gaza cease-fire“. This is just a recap of stories, the only one about Sinwar is “As he stalls Gaza talks, Israel’s Netanyahu prioritizes capturing Sinwar“.  Paywalled, but this is the synopsis: “The recent rescue of a hostage held in Gaza boosts assessments in Israel that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is under growing pressure and could be captured soon.”
• Deeply critical of the Israeli government for not being hard line enough. “A strike won’t bring the hostages back, but it will harm Israel” . “Opinion: No matter what Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar does – every monstrous and inhumane act – Israel’s public demands that he be given more incentives to harden his positions” https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ry0wkvmn
• Another hardline pro-Netanyahu piece: “Sinwar’s Israeli accomplices: The generals, the left’s political leaders and the rioters in the streets are all playing the roles the Hamas chief assigned them.” https://www.jns.org/sinwars-israeli-accomplices/
• “Hamas leader Sinwar ‘surrounded by 22 handcuffed hostages'” https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/08/28/hamas-leader-sinwar-surrounded-by-22-handcuffed-hostages/ More details about ceasefire proposals.
• paywalled, and from last week, the NYT: “Israel’s Hunt for the Elusive Leader of Hamas: Yahya Sinwar’s ability to evade capture or death has denied Israel a military success in a war that began after he planned the Oct. 7 attacks.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/us/politics/israel-hamas-sinwar.html

So which will come first, Bibi losing his political power, the capture of Sinwar, or a negotiated hostage deal?  I’m not betting on the last one any time soon.